Rebuilding Gaza & a deal with Putin – Professor John Mearsheimer on Trump

.Bloggers NOTE::  extract : They talk about uh uh Gaza now being unlivable and they talk about all the not live there it has been so thoroughly wrecked and then....

22:14

the question is who wrecked Gaza who did this and the answer is the Israelis

22:20

Benjamin nety who's sitting right next to Trump and Netanyahu did it in cahoots

22:25

with Joe Biden and the West and especially the United States we should

22:31

pay for rebuilding Gaza the Israelis should pay for rebuilding Gaza it's the

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Feb 12, 2025 Americano

Professor John Mearsheimer comes back on the Americano show with Freddy Gray to discuss how seriously we should take Trump's foreign policy. They cover the President's plans to rebuild Gaza, why Netanyahu and Trump won't agree on what to do with Iran and whether Trump can strike a deal with Putin.

 

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Transcript 

Freddy why should the neighboring states pay for what Israel and the United States did in Gaza because as a realist

0:06

you should accept that it's in their Regional interest it's not their Regional interest at

0:13

all why not you know the United States in Israel destroyed Gaza the Israelis

0:06

you should accept that it's in their Regional interest it's not their Regional interest at

0:13

all why not you know the United States in Israel destroyed Gaza the Israelis

0:19

were executing a genocide I mean I you know Trump sits there with Netanyahu and

0:24

they talk about uh uh Gaza now being unlivable and they talk about all the

0:30

destruction in Gaza and the fact that the Palestinians cannot live there it has been so thoroughly wrecked and then

0:37

the question is who wrecked Gaza who did

0:42

this hello and welcome to the Americano show today I am delighted to be joined

0:48

by a favorite guest of our show and that's professor John mimer who is a

0:54

professor uh an international relations scholar at the University of Chicago and

1:00

we're going to be asking if Donald Trump's foreign policy makes any sense

1:06

uh because as you will have noticed over the last three weeks there has been a blizzard of foreign policy news coming

1:14

out of the White House major developments seemingly major developments uh so much so that it's

1:19

been quite hard to concentrate on what is going on uh for journalist let alone

1:25

people who aren't uh paid to follow this for a living John I'll start

1:30

by asking you what's what are your sort broad brush impressions of Trump's foreign policy in his second term has it

1:37

differed in any way to what you expected uh I think that basically uh

1:45

what Trump is trying to do at this point in time is to sort of create chaos uh on

1:52

all fronts make uh a number of wild

1:57

assertions uh put forward uh policy ideas that are never going to be

2:03

realized and I think the Hope on his part is that out of all this chaos that

2:08

he's creating he can come up with some sort of formidable Grand strategy uh

2:14

that solves all the big problems that the United States and the West faces uh

2:20

and in the end fashion a coherent Grand strategy that deals with these different

2:25

problems but uh at this point in time what we really have is him making a lot

2:32

of I think it's fair to say wild and crazy statements I mean the idea that Canada is going to become the 51st state

2:39

that we're going to take back the Panama Canal that we're going to grab Greenland uh that the United States is

2:46

going to go into Gaza and uh ethnically cleanse the Palestinians uh and then

2:52

turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East well all these ideas are basically

2:58

outlandish uh and and uh you would not expect you know a new president uh to

3:04

start off by making uh a whole set of comments like that uh and at the same

3:10

time and we can talk more about this I don't think he's done much of anything uh to fix the Middle East problem and

3:18

this is mainly the Gaza problem at this point in time or the Ukraine problem uh

3:24

you want to remember he said that he was going to come in and solve the Ukraine problem in one day and that maybe even

3:31

solve it before he moved into the White House we can talk about this again but if anything it looks to me like we're in

3:38

more trouble on Ukraine than we were before he became the president uh so uh

3:44

I'm not too sure uh how this all works out in the end he may have a grand strategy in mind uh that escapes me and

3:52

uh we may live happily ever after but at this point in time it sure doesn't look that way uh can I try and put a in a

4:00

small point in Trump's defense when you say he's proposing ethnically cleansing Palestinians has he actually done that

4:07

has he done that yeah no and he's not going to be able to do it that's my point no but has he proposed

4:14

that yes he well he's talked about pushing the Palestinians all of the

4:20

Palestinians by my count they're about or there were before this conflict

4:26

started on October 7th there were about 2.3 milli ion Palestinians in Gaza and

4:32

he's talking about clearing them all out and uh that would have to be done at the

4:38

end of a rifle barrel those people are not going to leave uh he has not said that he was going to push them out at

4:44

the end of a rifle barrel but that is implicit in what he says uh but he's

4:49

committed to getting rid of those people and he's now said that they're not welcome back uh in the beginning when he

4:55

first raised this idea he talked about uh pushing them out maybe

5:01

temporarily uh but now that's been taken off the table and the idea is that they're going to be pushed out

5:06

permanently and he's going to find new homes for them in places like Jordan and

5:12

Egypt well I want to get onto girls a bit more later but if we could stick for now with the uh the broad brush points

5:22

um you're a realist uh you are probably the world's World expert world's leading

5:28

expert on realism uh in international relations uh does it not strike you that

5:35

perhaps Trump is a much more realist foreign policy president than his predecessors uh he is asserting or

5:42

trying to assert uh control over the Western hemisphere in a more direct and

5:47

open way um than others and he is uh transactional and pragmatic in his

5:54

approach to Ukraine in the Middle East uh he is his tariffs are are direct and

6:01

strike me as faintly realistic uh in some ways um certainly not not in terms

6:07

of the economics but in terms of the hard power dynamics um what do you make of what I'm

6:13

saying I think there's no question Freddy that he definitely has realist

6:18

instincts uh you want to remember that when he became president in 2017 he immediately abandoned engagement

6:26

with China and switched to a containment policy uh and indeed he uh campaigned on

6:33

abandoning engagement and moving toward uh containment in 2016 and I believe that's a very realist

6:41

policy he's also made the argument that all these uh terrible forever Wars

6:46

should have never happened uh and that he was going to end them and that he was not going to engage in any more forever

6:53

Wars uh given those policy positions I applaud him I think he was on the money

7:00

uh but what we're talking about now is how he is acting since he moved into the

7:07

White House on January 20th you know what exactly is his Grand strategy uh

7:14

and I think that at this point in time it looks like uh it's hard to say

7:21

exactly how he's going to pursue those broad realist goals uh and I think if

7:27

anything it looks REM remarkably chaotic uh if you made me president of the

7:33

United States we don't have to worry about that ever happening uh I would not have come into office and started

7:39

talking about you know annexing Canada taking back the Panama Canal and so

7:44

forth and so on I would have put uh all my attention on trying to shut down the

7:51

Gaza conflict once and for all and also trying to shut down the Ukraine conflict

7:57

once and for all those should be the highest price priority issues uh and I don't think that uh he has paid much

8:05

attention to Ukraine uh and with regard to Gaza I think that his proposal to

8:11

ethnically cleanse Gaza and turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East is really

8:17

crazy uh and uh is not going to help the situation so he may have realist

8:23

instincts this is your point uh and uh he may be a marked improvement on his

8:30

predecessor and his predecessors in this regard I'm not going to argue against that but uh uh in terms of how he's

8:38

actually performed in the first three weeks and we do want to be aware of the fact that he's only been president for

8:43

three weeks uh and that's a very short period of time so you don't want to pass final judgment but I would just say I

8:50

don't think he's off to a good start how much uh weight do you put on rhetoric or

8:57

words or messaging uh uh when you study things from a realist point of view I mean could you not say that what Trump

9:04

says is less important than what America actually does and of course rhetoric and

9:10

Bluster is clearly part of his modus operandi well I think there's no

9:16

question that a lot of what he says everybody recognizes it doesn't mean

9:22

very much uh in and of itself in other words no I don't think anybody believes Canada is going to become the 51st State

9:30

uh where that we're going to invade Panama anytime soon uh so I I I think

9:36

there's no question that people understand that a lot of this is just Bluster it's the way Trump operates and

9:42

he does it at the domestic level as well as the foreign policy level but the point I would make to you Freddy is I do

9:48

think words matter and I think if you look at all the different things that he's been saying to different

9:55

audiences uh it's not clear that this is very helpful uh and we don't want to get

10:00

into the Ukraine case in great detail at this point in time but if you look at Ukraine he said a number of things to

10:06

the Russians that are quite offensive and are not going to engender trust in

10:12

him among Russian Elites especially Putin and I think moving forward if

10:17

anything he wants to do everything he can uh to create a situation where Trump

10:23

is trusted by Putin but if you look at what he says and how he says it uh I

10:29

don't think he's uh you know helping his cause Trump is helping his cause so

10:34

words do matter even for realist and uh and I think in that regard he's not been

10:40

terribly smart do you think that um the Israelis have a point when they say that

10:47

Trump is thinking out of the box this is what Netanyahu says uh and that is constructive because um there are no

10:54

other viable solutions for what to do about Gaza and uh when it comes to the

10:59

Palestinians uh attempts to accommodate uh them attempts to find

11:05

some kind of compromise have always failed going back to 1948 you're asking me is there a

11:11

solution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict uh that uh that that's been

11:20

there and we've just missed uh the answer is no uh there was no way you were going to solve this one

11:27

because the Israelis from the beginning have wanted all of Greater Israel uh

11:33

they were never interested in giving the Palestinians a state of their own this is a myth that we purvey in the west uh

11:40

so that we can support uh uh Israel fully so it's not like I think there is

11:45

a solution out there a viable solution uh the best that the Israelis were able

11:51

to come up with was where they basically locked uh the uh Palestinians in Gaza in

11:58

a GI an open air prison and they thought they could manage that problem uh and

12:05

that looked like it worked up until October 7th uh and now the question is what do you do moving forward and uh the

12:13

Israelis would like to cleanse Gaza that's been their that's been their policy goal since October 7th uh to

12:20

cleanse Gaza they want to get rid of all the Palestinians um and uh the question is

12:27

do you think this is a viable or an ethical solution uh I don't think it's a

12:33

viable solution because I don't think the Palestinians are going to leave uh you want to remember that the Israelis

12:40

have just spent the past 16 months uh executing what I call a genocide in Gaza

12:46

they have murdered huge numbers of Palestinians by almost all accounts they've made the place unlivable it's

12:53

really quite remarkable when you see the destruction that they have wrought in Gaza and never nevertheless the

12:59

Palestinians are still there and Hamas by Israeli accounts and by Tony

13:05

blinken's account is alive and well so what are we going to do now to fix the

13:12

problem what's the viable solution that Trump has what what does this thinking

13:18

outside of the box add up to there's no question he's thinking outside of the box but is what he is thinking logical

13:28

is it viable is it morally correct uh I don't think it's any of those things I

13:35

as an American certainly don't want to be associated with a policy that calls

13:40

for ethnically cleansing Gaza at the end of a rifle barrel uh and uh furthermore

13:47

I don't think you can do it the Israelis were unable to do it I don't think we're going to be able to do it Trump has made

13:52

it clear we're not going to go in there and do it so who's going to do it the Israelis well they've already tried what

13:57

do you think they've been doing for the past 15 months this is like you know people say if the hostages don't come

14:04

back on Saturday uh these are the Israeli hostages who are due to be

14:09

released this Saturday if they don't come back uh Netanyahu is going to restart the war and I say to myself okay

14:17

what does that mean the war was not going very well which is why the Israelis agreed to the ceasefire they

14:24

didn't agree to the ceasefire because Trump put great pressure on them they agreed to the ceasefire in large part

14:31

because the IDF the Israeli military put great pressure on Netanyahu to affect to

14:37

ceasefire because the IDF understood it could not defeat Hamas number one and

14:43

number two the Israeli Army was coming apart at the seams it was suffering great casualties in Gaza and furthermore

14:50

that this is an army that's configured for fighting short Wars not long Wars it was not configured to fight a war of

14:57

attrition over a long period per of time in Gaza so it was in deep trouble so the

15:02

Israelis agreed to a ceas fire and now we're talking about putting an end to

15:08

that ceasefire okay what's the magic formula that the Israelis have now come up with that's going to allow them to

15:15

deal with the Hamas problem that they couldn't deal with for the first 16 months of the war I just don't

15:23

understand uh so you know Trump is thinking outside the box but some times

15:29

thinking outside the box makes sense and sometimes it doesn't and in this case I don't think it makes

15:35

sense what I want to go back a little bit to where you said that the Israelis have always wanted a greater Israel um

15:42

isn't that a pretty controversial thing to say and and perhaps unfair um given

15:48

that you know there may be uh politicians in Israel today who wanted greater Israel and have done for a long

15:54

time um but Israel as a state has not always acted as though it has wanted a

16:00

greater Israel it has sought accommodation with the Palestinians and it has been

16:05

rebuffed no I don't believe that I believe these are myths that we tell ourselves in the west so that we can

16:11

continue to support Israel down the line I think the original zionists people who uh were interested

16:19

in creating uh a Jewish state which of course happened in May of 1948

16:25

understood full well that they could not take all the ter territory at once

16:30

simply because there were so many Palestinians uh in the area and uh not

16:35

nearly as many Jews and it would have to be done incrementally uh but the idea that the

16:42

Israelis were interested in a meaningful two-state solution uh and it was the

16:48

Palestinians who rejected those wholly generous offers by the Israelis is a

16:55

tall tale uh and I know we tell it in the west and when I make the argument that I'm making people think that you

17:01

know I'm an anti-semite or I'm hostile to Israel and so forth and so on but there's a whole literature written by

17:08

Israelis that makes it clear uh that the Israelis were never interested in

17:13

creating a Palestinian State and they wanted all of Israel they just understood that they'd have to do it

17:20

gradually they wouldn't be able to take all that territory all at once yeah well I would never accuse you

17:27

of anti-Semitism although I know uh a lot of people do but let's get back to

17:32

Trump rather than getting into a a discussion of Middle Eastern politics because what a lot of people are

17:37

speculating and this certainly looks like it might be playing out now is that what Trump was trying to do was pressure

17:43

the neighboring Arab states to come up with viable Solutions of their own possibly rebuilding Gaza themselves

17:51

paying for it uh and possibly trying to uh take care look after some of the

17:56

Palestinian people who have been displaced um Jordan seems to be

18:01

rebuffing Trump a bit more forcefully at the moment whereas Egypt uh has

18:06

suggested that it would like to come up with a reconstruction plan for Gaza so perhaps this is Bluster from Trump that

18:14

is working that's achieving leverage over those Arab states no I don't believe that at all it

18:22

it's actually United the Arab states in the region there's Universal agreement

18:28

among on the Arab states and uh uh Universal agreement in the Arab and

18:34

Islamic world that this is morally reprehensible that this is the

18:39

Palestinians land that the United States and Israel have absolutely no right to push them out uh and in no way are they

18:47

going to accommodate the United States and Israel we're isolated on this one I'm sure the the Europeans are with us

18:54

on this uh for the most part uh but uh outside of the Europeans there's no

19:01

support for what the United States uh wants to do uh in this case uh the last

19:07

thing Jordan wants is to create uh a huge Enclave for more Palestinians

19:13

inside its borders and uh Egypt is thinking the same way look the fact is

19:19

the United States is remarkably powerful and it has tremendous leverage over

19:26

Egypt and Jordan because in the past we worked out a deal with Egypt and Jordan

19:32

where we would give them huge amounts of financial aid if they played nice with

19:38

Israel we bought off for Israel we did this for Israel we bought off Jordan and

19:44

Egypt again there's a huge literature on this this is not something I'm making up but once we do that not only do we

19:52

guarantee at the time that Egypt and Jordan will play nice with Israel but it

19:58

gives us huge leverage over time and Trump fully understands that and he's

20:04

basically telling the jordanians and the Egyptians we have huge economic leverage

20:10

over you and we're going to use that leverage to force you we're going to coer you into accepting the Palestinians

20:18

and the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not the jordanians and the Egyptians will cave

20:24

and the jordanians made it clear yesterday the Jordanian president made it clear in a tweet after his meeting

20:31

with Trump that that's not going to happen and the uh General Cissy

20:37

the Egyptian leader canceled his trip uh to Washington because he doesn't want to

20:42

be humiliated by Trump and he wants to make it clear that he's not going to go along either so you have a situation

20:49

here Freddy the Palestinians are not going to leave the Egyptians are not going to take them the jordanians are

20:56

not going to take them and then if there ask yourself a simple question where does that leave us well I would say I

21:02

mean I'd go back to that point that the Egyptians are saying that they're going to propose a Redevelopment plan for Gaza

21:10

and to some extent Trump's move has exposed a certain hypocrisy among the Arab states which is that uh there is an

21:17

astronomical Bill uh to fix Gaza which neighboring states are not willing to

21:22

pay um and yet they are willing to uh condemn Israel to condemn the United

21:29

States they're not willing to take part in any solutions Trump is pushing them into uh coming up with Solutions Freddy

21:37

why should the neighboring states pay for what Israel and the United States did in Gaza because as a realist you

21:43

should accept that it's in their Regional interest it's not their Regional interest at

21:49

all why not you know the United States in Israel destroyed Gaza the Israelis

21:56

were executing a genocide I mean I you know Trump sits there with Netanyahu and

22:01

they talk about uh uh Gaza now being unlivable and they talk about all the

22:07

destruction in Gaza and the fact that the Palestinians cannot live there it has been so thoroughly wrecked and then

22:14

the question is who wrecked Gaza who did this and the answer is the Israelis

22:20

Benjamin nety who's sitting right next to Trump and Netanyahu did it in cahoots

22:25

with Joe Biden and the West and especially the United States we should

22:31

pay for rebuilding Gaza the Israelis should pay for rebuilding Gaza it's the

22:37

Israelis and the Americans who destroyed Gaza not the Egyptians or the jordanians if you enjoy what we do here

22:44

at spectator TV then why not subscribe to the magazine as well if you subscribe today you'll get 12 weeks for just 122

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plus a free2 John Lewis and wait gift card you can sign up at spectator. co.uk

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sltv offer well speaking of the United States paying for rebuilding Gaza that

23:02

is what Trump is proposing so if we take his proposal at face value um a lot of

23:07

people who support Trump or a lot of people who voted for Trump I'd say uh

23:12

did not imagine that uh occupying Gaza which is what he's proposing he said it

23:18

um repeatedly now would be part of the the foreign policy agenda and in fact it

23:23

goes against um what he appeared to stand for uh and appeared to stand for

23:29

in both elections in all three elections uh presidential elections that he's fought which is um America First and not

23:37

getting entangled in the Middle East or further entangled in the Middle East this would be a huge entanglement would

23:43

it not yeah I've seen a number of tweets from people uh who identify with the

23:50

Maga agenda protesting what Trump is doing saying what is he doing here my

23:57

response to that is Trump's Trump's proposal on Gaza is not a serious proposal the United States is

24:05

not going to ethnically Clans Gaza and then turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East this is about as likely as

24:12

Canada becoming the 550 first state Trump likes the Bluster he likes

24:18

to make all of these outrageous statements and then everybody pays huge amounts of attention to these statements

24:25

and they never add up to much you remember when he fell in love with the North Koreans uh and uh he was going to solve

24:33

that problem uh get rid of North Korean nuclear weapons how well did that work out the answer is not very well at all

24:40

and uh this one's not going to work out very well either uh this is a giant problem and by the way Freddy you know

24:48

Trump played a an important role in fashioning the

24:54

ceasefire that took place on January 19th this is the a ceasefire that took place on January 19th which of course is

25:01

the day before he moved into the white house uh he sent his mediator his uh

25:07

Middle East mediator uh Steve Whit cop to the uh Middle East to basically tell

25:13

nety who let's get a ceasefire so it looked like Trump was off to a good

25:18

start right we got a ceasefire uh in Gaza and most people not Netanyahu in

25:25

company but most people thought that was all for for the good but since he moved into the White House on January 20th

25:33

he's cut in the other direction and if anything he's done all he can to undermine the uh ceasefire agreement uh

25:42

and in my opinion that doesn't make sense from his point of view because a

25:47

ceasefire and trying to work out some sort of meaningful modus vendi with

25:53

Israel and the Palestinians is a much smarter thing to do than try to turn

25:59

Gaza into uh the Riviera in the Middle East do you think though it does make

26:05

sense from Trump's point of view that perhaps he knew that he had angered the Israelis he'd angered

26:11

Netanyahu um and that even perhaps beforehand he'd agreed with Netanyahu that he would change his position later

26:19

uh he angered them in the ceasefire and he changed his position later to be more accommodating to Israel uh once once he

26:25

was in power having achieved this ceasefire uh on the eve of his ignoration yeah I think that's a very

26:31

smart observation and I think you're probably right but is there any hard

26:38

evidence to support it no we don't know uh and as you know Trump is somebody who

26:45

says one thing one minute and then says the exact opposite a minute later so

26:50

it's hard to tell exactly what's going on I mean as I said at the top of the

26:56

show I do think that Trump is into sewing chaos and he operates on the

27:02

assumption that if you seow chaos that this uh will help him you know uh to

27:09

develop a solution uh to the various problems or develop solutions to the various

27:15

problems that uh the United States faces around the world uh and maybe that's

27:21

what's going on here maybe he's just bent on uh you know saying different things on different days I would note

27:28

though Freddy just very quickly that to contradict myself at first it looked

27:33

like when he was talking about turning Gaza into the Rivier of the Middle East that he was just posturing and this was

27:40

not serious but it now looks like he really believes that that he thinks that

27:46

this is a meaningful policy position to hold uh and that uh he for the time

27:53

being is going to stick to it uh I don't know how long he'll stick to it because it ought to be quite apparent to him uh

28:01

that he's not getting a lot of support in the Arab world uh and that uh Hamas

28:08

is not going to give up easily in Gaza and he's going to have to force them out

28:14

the Palestinians uh if he wants to uh put this grand plan of his uh into

28:22

operation isn't the uh real real politique if I can say that uh here all

28:27

about Iran and that uh witkoff Trump and Netanyahu they are

28:32

aligned uh to an extent on what they want to do about Iran um and that just

28:39

an hour before uh Trump Trump's press office released a statement about the uh

28:44

the plan to take over Gaza they released uh the agreement that Netanyahu and Trump seem to have reached on applying

28:51

maximum pressure on Iran um on effectively um pushing the Iranian

28:58

regime as hard as it as hard as they can no I disagree with that in fact uh

29:03

har rets had a headline story yesterday that made the point that uh what

29:09

happened in netanyahu's visit to the United States with regard to the Iranian issue was terrible news for uh Netanyahu

29:19

Netanyahu is not interested in maximum pressure we've tried maximum pressure before you want to remember that

29:25

President Trump in his first term walked away from the nuclear arms agreement uh

29:32

that the west and the Russians and the Chinese had fashioned with Iran this is the famous jcpoa that was the nuclear

29:39

agreement in 2018 Trump walked away from that and Trump said that we're going to instead

29:45

pursue a policy of maximum pressure to force Iran to agree to a better deal

29:52

well that failed uh and what he's doing now is he is telling Israelis he's

29:59

telling Netanyahu something he doesn't want to hear which is that the United States is not planning on using military

30:06

force to attack Iran that's what Netanyahu wants he wants the United

30:12

States and Israel operating as a tag team to go in and blast the nuclear

30:17

facilities in Iran Trump has made it clear he has no interest in doing that

30:22

and instead he's going back to maximum pressure the Israelis of course had to

30:28

agree in public with Trump's policy position but behind closed doors they're

30:34

adamantly opposed to it which is why haret had this headline yesterday saying that netanyahu's position on Iran was

30:41

undermined during his visit to Washington I take that point but what I

30:46

I suppose what I was getting at was the first Trump Administration uh made some strides it

30:52

wasn't all just Bluster and and and Bluff in the Middle East they did make some strides towards achieving uh the

30:58

Abraham Accords uh uh better negotiations between Arab states and

31:04

Israel and of course the the final piece of that puzzle not the final piece but a very important piece of that puzzle will

31:09

be uh an an accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel and that by applying maximum

31:17

pressure on Iran perhaps not going as far as Netanyahu wants um but they are pushing ahead with the the process that

31:23

they started in their first term I'm I'm not sure what you're saying here first of all with regard to Iran

31:31

Iran is now enriching uranium up to 60% as a result of walking away from the

31:37

jcpoa as a result of Trump's policy which was enthusiastically backed by Benjamin

31:44

Netanyahu we're now in a situation where Iran is about two weeks away where it

31:51

could from where it could enrich enough uranium for four or five bombs two weeks

31:58

away to go from 60% enrichment to 90% enrichment is easy that is saying we are

32:05

in much worse shape today with regard to a nuclear Iran than we were in 2018 when

32:14

Trump walked away from the jcpoa with regard to the Abraham

32:20

Accords uh I don't think the Abraham Accords matter for very

32:25

much anyway uh so there are these four Abraham Accords

32:31

what do they have to do with solving the Palestinian problem what do they have to do with solving the Hezbollah problem

32:37

what do they have to do with solving the Syrian problem what do they have to do with solving the Iranian problem the

32:43

answer is virtually nothing so you have good relations between the UAE and

32:49

Israel you have good relations between Sudan and Morocco in Israel does this

32:55

really matter were those countries at War war and all of a sudden those wars were shut down by the Abraham Accords I

33:03

think not and with regard to Saudi Arabia if you read what the Saudis are

33:08

now saying about Trump's plan to turn Gaza into the Rivier of the Middle East

33:16

it's quite clear that we're further than ever from having an Abraham Accord with Saudi Arabia now in the west people like

33:23

to talk about the fact that uh Abraham ACC cour was s Arabia is just around the

33:29

corner I would argue that if you look carefully at the evidence that's not true at all but even if you get an

33:34

Abraham Accord with Saudi Arabia what's the big deal is that going to help with all these different problems in places

33:41

like Gaza the West Bank uh has bah Syria and Iran I think the answer is no well

33:47

you you said earlier that words matter I would have thought Accords matter and uh diplomatic relations between countries

33:54

being good uh matters uh because it's better than being bad the question

33:59

Freddy is how much does it matter and the answer is it doesn't matter very much at all it matters for Saudi Arabia

34:05

and Israel but Saudi Arabia is not the big problem in the Middle East we don't

34:10

talk about the Saudi versus Israel conflict right or the Sudan versus

34:17

Israel conflict we talk about places like Gaza the West Bank the Palestinians Hezbollah Iran Syria and these Accords

34:26

have little to to do with those conflicts as we understand it president

34:32

Trump is uh quite concerned all the people around him are quite concerned about an apparent Iranian a threat to

34:39

assassinate him uh he said the other day that he's left instructions that if he is assassinated by Iran uh they will be

34:47

all held to pay or words to that effect um I mean I think Trump might be more

34:53

willing to uh nuke tyan than you're willing to Grant

35:00

well he has made it very clear that he does not want to quote him bomb the hell out of Iran uh you want to remember that

35:08

he was elected in 2016 and he was elected again in

35:13

2024 on the platform that he was not going to start any more Wars uh that's

35:19

the realist in Trump and I think that's all for the good uh I think there's no

35:24

question if it was clear that ran uh

35:29

assassinated President Trump and let's hope that never happens let's hope he's never assassinated period but if there

35:36

was clear evidence that Iran uh assassinated uh Trump as president

35:43

there's no question whether Trump left uh uh orders or not that his successor

35:51

would make uh Iran pay a god- awful price there's just no question about

35:57

that but there's no evidence that Iran is

36:02

trying to assassinate Trump that I know of uh if there's evidence they can show it to me and then I'll believe it but I

36:10

don't think I don't think that Iran would be crazy enough to assassinate Trump they surely can figure out what

36:17

the consequences would be for them uh and they would not be good and therefore I don't think they're out to assassinate

36:24

Trump so I think this is much to do about nothing think there are some people who think uh contrary to what

36:30

I've been saying before that Trump's uh agenda is um to actually uh you know go

36:38

to tan at some point to uh surprise Everyone by uh fashioning some kind of

36:45

agreement with Iran uh as he did with Kim yungun and and North Korea in his

36:50

first term uh and perhaps as Nixon did with China he sees himself as somebody who's capable of uh breaking these

36:58

surprising alliances the problem that he would face if he did that Freddy is he'd run into

37:04

the Israel Lobby uh I mean the Israel Lobby is deeply committed to making sure

37:10

that the United States and Iran remain mortal enemies uh at least as long as

37:18

Iran has the capability to enrich uranium uh and uh reprocess plutonium uh

37:27

and uh therefore I think if Trump began to play nice with Iran the Israel Lobby

37:33

would move in and make it very clear to him that that's unacceptable and he would change his behavior for viewers

37:41

who have not read your work on the Israel Lobby what exactly is the Israel

37:46

Lobby well it's uh a group of individuals and

37:52

organizations in the United States uh that are profoundly committed

37:59

to making sure that the United States supports Israel

38:04

unconditionally uh it's very important to understand that the United States has a relationship with Israel that has no

38:10

parallel in recorded history uh the United States and Israel despite the

38:16

fact they sometimes have different interests this is not to deny that they sometimes have the same interest but

38:22

they often have different interests and in those cases the lobby Works overtime

38:29

to make sure that the United States supports Israel uh unconditionally and

38:36

uh that's what the special relationship is all about and the lobby is I believe

38:41

the most powerful Lobby or interest group uh in the history of the United

38:48

States and it wields enormous influence and if any president

38:54

uh pursues a policy in the Middle East that the Israelis adamantly oppose you can rest assured that the lobby will go

39:01

to work on Israel's behalf and push that American leader uh to support Israel so

39:08

on the Iran issue you know Bill Clinton when he was president he started to play nice with the

39:14

Israelis uh and the lobby quickly moved in and told him the basic facts of life

39:20

which is he's not allowed to play nice with the Iranians because the Israeli government considers that unacceptable I

39:27

laid this out Steve Walton I laid this out uh in our chapter on Iran in the

39:32

book on the Israel Lobby well let's uh talk about whether

39:38

there's a Ukraine Lobby uh in Washington and what they might be thinking about

39:43

Trump's latest moves um Scott bessent is I think in Kiev at the moment uh talking to Ukraine there seems

39:51

to be some kind of deal uh on the cards which is that the US in return for

39:57

continuing to support uh Ukraine will get more obvious access to Ukrainian

40:06

minerals and um I wonder what you think about that because to some extent that's

40:11

a bit like what we were talking about earli on which is that Trump's uh much more

40:16

transactional um much more nakedly selfish if you like or or certainly

40:22

National interest driven uh foreign policy is at least more direct and clear

40:30

than uh the Biden administration's policy which was to S of Soto V talk

40:35

about um Ukraine's minerals and how important they could be um but really to

40:41

talk about but publicly to talk about democracy and the importance of Defending it and so on look if you're a good realist Freddy

40:49

uh you defend a country like Ukraine because you think it's in the American national interest uh and basically what

40:57

Trump is saying is that if you don't pay us back for what he claims is the $300

41:05

billion uh that we've given you to fight this war if you don't pay us back with

41:12

this mineral wealth we're going to cut off our assistance to you this is what you call transactional this is

41:19

completely at odds with basic realist logic I mean looks like we're in this to make

41:25

money uh and it's no accident the German Chancellor condemned Trump for making

41:32

this claim it making this line of argument it makes

41:37

us look like we're mercenaries uh just fundamental mistake and it's completely

41:43

at odds with realism uh Trump told us that he was going to settle the

41:48

Ukrainian conflict in one day uh and there is no evidence that we

41:56

are even close to settling the Ukraine conflict and if anything we're heading

42:02

in the other direction so he is failed so far now of course he's only been in

42:07

office for three weeks but uh there is no evidence that he has a plan for

42:13

shutting this war down uh and it looks like the war is going to go on and it

42:20

looks like he is doing everything he can to dump this war into the lap of the

42:26

Europeans uh uh and uh it looks like the Europeans are coming to recognize that

42:31

they don't have any choice but to accept much more of the burden of dealing with this War uh so this is just all this is

42:39

bad news all around bad news for the Ukrainian people bad news for the Russians bad news for the United States

42:46

bad news for the West because we're not uh G to shut this one down anytime soon

42:51

if it isn't realism what is it is it uh merism is it I've seen people calling it

42:56

national capitalism um is it something new entirely I don't know it's it's just you

43:04

know Trump sewing chaos it's it's hard to say as I've said

43:09

you know a few times here I'm not exactly sure what Trump is up to

43:15

uh you know it it just it doesn't make sense to me to say uh after all of the

43:24

attention the United States has paid to the Ukraine more after all the support

43:29

that the United States has given to Ukraine to all of a sudden turn around and say uh if you don't give us a huge

43:36

chunk of your mineral wealth we're GNA abandon you uh but if you don't right if

43:43

you if you do give us uh all of this mineral wealth we won't abandon you

43:49

we'll continue to support the war that's what he's saying that's certainly not a realist

43:55

perspective C not a morally correct perspective uh and it raises the

44:02

question what is he doing here you know why do this uh and I don't have a good

44:09

answer well uh I mean it might be to it might be answered by looking at his

44:14

relationship to uh Russia or his his approach to Russia his approach to Putin

44:20

and the Kremlin um he uh has appeared to be real a realist when it comes to

44:27

Russia's interests or understanding Russia's interests in the past uh Russia in recent days has released an American

44:35

hostage I think it's going to a prisoner I should say I think it's going to release another um something's going on

44:41

there is it not what can we interpret about that what's going on I mean I want to

44:47

know what the plan is the Russians have made it very clear

44:52

what they want and the question is what is Trump willing to to do to accommodate

44:58

the Russians what's the plan there's no evidence they have a plan uh there's no

45:05

evidence there are any meaningful contacts between the Russians and the Americans for purposes of shutting this

45:12

war down uh so I I I don't think that

45:17

releasing some prisoner makes any difference at all the question is what

45:23

is the deal what what does Trump think he can do to shut this war down and

45:30

there's no evidence that the Administration has the foggiest idea how they can shut this war down and instead

45:38

Trump is being has been saying outrageous things about the Russians that are if anything designed to erode

45:47

trust between the Russians and the Americans and there's not very much trust to begin with but you know he says

45:54

that the Russians have suffered a million death which is a ludicrous claim that their

46:00

economy is in shambles which is another ludicrous claim and he says that he's

46:05

going to do Putin a favor by shutting this war down for him that we're going to do Putin a favor do you think this is

46:12

going to make Putin think that Trump is somebody he can trust of course not and

46:18

Putin doesn't trust the West much at all and Trump is just making the problem worse uh so there's no concrete proposal

46:26

floating around uh there are no viable ideas coming out of the administration

46:32

on how to accommodate the Russians who happen to be in the driver's seat on the battlefield uh and instead what you're

46:39

getting are rather outlandish statements that if anything going to make it harder

46:45

to get a deal rather than easier well uh lastly Jun because I know I'm taking up a lot of your time here but I I would

46:52

like to ask you a bit about China which we talked a little bit about at the beginning you did anyway um is that I'd

46:59

like to put it to you that um the real strategic focus of the Trump Administration as we understand it so

47:04

far uh and even more so in this second term it seems is uh dealing with China

47:10

dealing with the rise of China uh confronting the rise of China and he has people like Elbridge Colby in his

47:16

administration who are very concerned about that uh and that you know when you look at the Panama Canal what he's

47:22

talking about in the Panama Canal that's very much a concern about China's belt and Road in which has now the Panamanian

47:29

leader has said he he will um get rid of the belum road I believe um if you look

47:34

at Greenland that's long been a strategic concern that China is um you know could break through in the Arctic

47:41

Circle and so on uh the real focus is China and if we want to make any sense of Trump's foreign policy we need to

47:48

think about what it's thinking about China I mean I think that there's no

47:54

question that the United States should be riveted on China and it should think

48:00

about how best to smartly contain China uh I think that being pinned down in the

48:07

Middle East and being pinned down in Ukraine makes it difficult for the

48:13

United States to focus uh its attention on dealing with China and therefore one

48:21

hoped that Trump would come in and shut down the conflict in Gaza shut down the

48:27

conflict in Ukraine and concentrate on fashioning a smart containment policy in

48:35

East Asia that has not happened as I said he is if anything making the

48:41

situation in Gaza worse uh and uh not doing much at all uh

48:47

to get us out of the Middle East and there's no evidence that he's going to

48:52

put an end to the Ukraine war so we're pinned down in these two places which causes us all sorts of problems in East

48:59

Asia furthermore uh if you look at what's happened in East Asia since he's

49:05

taken office uh there are all sorts of Articles beginning to appear that because of what he's done with

49:12

usaid uh our position in Southeast Asia uh we where we have long had problems uh

49:21

fashioning alliances that can help us contain China our situation there and

49:26

southeast Asia is getting worse uh and given Trump's uh tendency to slap uh

49:34

allies around it's not clear to me that he's going to do a really good job

49:40

fashioning a balancing Coalition in East Asia against China uh so I think the

49:46

situation in East Asia is actually not looking good at all and actually this time lastly I know

49:54

I said lastly last time uh but I would like like to ask you by answer sort of yes no question you don't have to answer

50:00

at length if you don't want to um a lot of people talk about the Trump Administration as

50:07

reversing America's decline um as a

50:12

superpower um it sounds to me from what you're saying that you uh believe he could be accelerating its decline uh do

50:20

you believe he's accelerating it or uh reversing it or checking it in some way

50:27

well when I think about decline Freddy I I think it in ter I think of it in terms of the balance of power um and uh I

50:35

think about how powerful the United States is in material terms versus how

50:40

powerful it is how powerful China and Russia are relative to the United States

50:47

uh and the reason that the United States has been declining in terms of its power over

50:53

time is because China has been rising so it's in terms of relative power that we

51:00

have been declining but in terms of absolute power if you look at the state

51:05

of the American economy the American economy is doing quite well it's

51:11

growing uh and I believe that if you look at uh the future right there's every

51:19

reason to think that the US economy will do very well but the question is how

51:26

well will the Chinese economy continue to do and if the Chinese economy were to

51:33

grow at a really significant rate in the years ahead then there would be relative

51:39

decline for the United States because relative to China we would be declining

51:46

even though our economy would be growing every year so I think American decline

51:53

mainly has to do with the Chinese economy now to take this a step further and I think this is a very important

51:59

point when we talk about containing China and we talk about dealing with the China CH dealing with China from an

52:05

American point of view the focus is usually on containment and putting together a balancing Coalition which

52:12

involves usually uh a focus on military force but there's another competition

52:18

that's taking place and that has to do with cuttingedge Technologies things like AI Quantum Computing uh super uh

52:26

Super Chips and so forth and so on and there is a wickedly intense competition

52:34

taking place there and that competition for high-end Technologies matters

52:41

enormously for the balance of economic power which of course for a good realist

52:48

like me is of great consequence so I think moving forward the key question is

52:55

how well does China to do with AI for example versus how well the United

53:01

States does with AI right and this will tell you a great deal about American

53:08

decline moving forward now all of this is to say just to go to the heart of

53:13

your point or your question I don't think that Trump is doing anything yet

53:20

that is eroding America's absolute power right or speeding up America's relative

53:29

decline what Trump is having great trouble with so far and again he's only

53:34

been three weeks into his administration is the diplomacy that comes along with military

53:42

power the United States has this enormous power it's still the most powerful State on the planet the

53:48

question is what is American diplomacy look like how is America using all that

53:54

power that it has to Fashion uh or to influence events around the

54:00

world that uh are in the American national interest and that's where I

54:05

have all sorts of doubts about what Trump is doing and of course I had all

54:10

sorts of doubts about what Biden was doing uh before Trump uh so I think that

54:17

in terms of power the United States is not in bad shape uh I think it's in

54:22

terms of how it uses that power that it gets itself into trouble and that's what

54:28

worries me about Trump professor John Mish thank you very much for coming on to Americano it's always a great

54:34

pleasure to have you on