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..Putin's deal top bolster the Russian economy with oil trade deals appears to have fallen through during his time in China for the SCO summit and military parade, says Michael Bociurkiw on Frontlin
Mr. Putin came to uh the SEO summit with
a huge contingent of cabinet ministers
and um and leaders of Russian business
and one of them was the head of Gasprom
and he was boasting about a new gas
pipeline that is going to supply China
with endless amounts of gas for
eternity. Uh and indeed Mr. Putin
reiterated this uh during his post
parade press conference. However, uh it
seems that the Chinese foreign ministry
politely pushed back on that saying
there's no agreement. So that's
interesting. You know, Xi Jinping is a
very very smart guy. We may not believe
with his politics or his oppression, but
he he does know that for China to
continue its growth, it needs a lot of
energy resources. That is why um his
gaze is also looking over there to the
Russian Far East which is very very
lightly protected now because of the war
in Ukraine but where there are massive
massive resources.
Hello, welcome to Front Line for Times
Radio with me Kate Shabbo and today we
are talking to a Ukraine-based global
affairs analysts with more than two
decades experience in humanitarian work
and international journalism. Michael
Bosoku is a senior fellow at the
Atlantic Council and has been a
spokesman for the organization for
security and cooperation in Europe. He's
also an author and a regular commentator
here on Front Line. Michael, great to
see you again. How you doing?
I'm doing very good. Thanks for having
me again, Kate. Yeah, and Michael,
you're talking to us from Adessa and uh
just before we started this
conversation, you said the alerts had
gone off that there was going to be an
attack on Adessa and there was one
overnight. And all of this comes in the
week that we saw images of President
Putin attending President Xi's biggest
ever military parade in Beijing to mark
the end of the Second World War. I mean,
brazenly, he just doesn't care what's
happening in Ukraine. He's going to
continue. And any talk of peace uh is
basically fictitious, isn't it? Yeah,
that's correct. And uh Putin um in the
uh aftermath of that big circus in
China, the SEO summit and the big uh
parade in Beijing said that if uh
Ukraine can't uh achieve peace at the
peace table, Russia will do whatever it
can by military means to to settle this
thing. And yes, indeed u air raid sirens
have gone off as they often do here.
apparently drones approaching and uh
overnight uh uh critical infrastructure
um was hit here in Adessa and but the
big one uh in the past 48 hours was uh
nationwide all over Ukraine something
like I believe 500 drones. It's really
Kate Kiev that is being massively hit
and it's not as if it's happening every
night but enough to certainly uh weaken
the confidence of investors to scare
people away. Okay. I mean, I I no longer
go to Kiev for security reasons. It's
just too unsafe and too unpredictable.
And uh the the you know what we
discussed the other day here was um the
hits whether it's by fast missile or by
drones are so unpredictable that indeed
no inch of Ukraine can be considered
safe. I'll give you a quick example. The
other day I was sitting out with a group
of journalists uh here in Odessa and the
air raid alarms had stopped and second
lers there was a massive massive
explosion. It was far away but it was a
big powerful one. So it goes to show you
how things go here. But um as you and I
have spoken many times Kate I mean life
does go on. Uh people are going about
their business. They've been enjoying
summer absolutely to the max here on the
Odessa beaches. It's it's good to see
but again it's you know you worry one
worries about the long-term uh
consequences. I am very very sure that
part of the Putin calculus which you
asked about was uh to
chase people or scare people out of
Ukraine to change the demographics here
and and indeed millions of people have
left. Whether they will turn, it remains
to be seen.
And also, how much do you think of
Putin's calculus is based on the fact
that he thinks if he can keep stalling
on any talk about meetings whatsoever uh
by inviting Zalinski to Moscow, which is
fanciful, isn't it? Let's face it,
because he's never going to do that. if
he can keep stalling that actually he
can keep taking as much ground as he can
throwing people
into the meat grinder as it were in
order to do that based on perhaps a
gamble that uh President Trump will one
day say or try and force some kind of
deal in which the land that they do take
he tries to force Ukraine to siege to
Russia.
Yeah. In that post parade press
conference, uh Putin not only said if
Zilinski wants to meet with him, he can
come to Moscow, but he also I don't know
where he's getting his briefings from,
but uh maybe this is the way it works
with autocrats, he actually said that a
lot of the units on the Ukrainian front
line are staffed at maybe 40%. That's
the first time I've heard that and
certainly contradicts the reports that
we all get from the front lines. So I I
think it's a mix of um bravado of his uh
uh belief that he can push as hard as he
can with pretty much abandon and nothing
will happen. The consequences are very
low and uh that yeah this is exactly the
Russian strategy is to string things out
as long as possible and he he know he
realizes a couple of things is that the
attention span of Mr. Trump and the
attention span of many Western leaders
tends to shift over time. They they have
other competing priorities at at home.
Look at the mess um your uh UK prime
minister Kier Scarmer is right now with
NHS and taxes and migrants and and a
whole bunch of things there. And also uh
you know there was a lot of uh uh strong
headlines made of the other day when uh
the EU chiefs Ursula Vanderlayan's plane
uh flew right into Russian GPS uh
blocking in Bulgaria. And uh what I
noticed from that one is basically we
received a whimper from the EU from
NATO. And the Russians see this uh they
they they're not afraid of these
statements. Words don't mean anything to
them. So that almost gives them a green
light to press ahead.
So talk to talk a little bit more about
what happened in China this week. How
much further do you think uh President
Xi's new global and economic order came
after that summit of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization? Has it reached
a new crossroads as he says? Well, I
think it's important to separate fact
from spectacle. Uh, a lot of that was
indeed spectacle. Reminds me of the
circus in Alaska between Vladimir Putin
and Donald Trump. Uh, you know, we we
saw an interesting coalition uh there of
uh Xi Jinping playing host to Vladimir
Putin to the North Korean leader. uh
India's Modi was not there but he was at
the SEO summit uh the leader of Pakistan
was there which was interesting Malaysia
a whole bunch of others but uh you know
we saw a parade and we saw lots of shiny
new equipment but uh the analysts I've
talked to the analysts I read all say
their unonymity about this is that uh
you know that was exactly what it was is
a parade we know that this is an
untested army uh The last time the
Chinese got into a real war was in the
late 1970s with a dust up with Vietnam.
So they're very very much untested. And
the other thing is here we saw the
addition of you new units to the uh
people's liberation army PLA uh cyber
command space command. But uh I I think
we're also uh realizing looking at this
and realizing at the same time that as
with the u army in Russia is that it's a
very top-down structure which don't
which don't aren't very agile in the
real theater of war and also that these
units aren't necessarily uh well
integrated.
But I think this was a uh also the SEO
summit and the gathering of uh the um
bad neighbors if you will in Beijing
were lifting a collective middle finger
to Donald Trump and saying see we we
have the power where united uh there was
a lot of criticism
not necessarily by name but of Mr. Trump
for swinging carelessly his tariff baton
especially towards India
excuse me and there was an interesting
um little development there on the
sidelines that didn't get much pickup um
uh Mr. Putin came to uh the SEO summit
with a huge contingent of cabinet
ministers and um and leaders of Russian
business. And one of them was the head
of Gasprom and he was boasting about a
new gas pipeline that is going to supply
China with endless amounts of gas for
eternity. Uh and indeed Mr. Putin
reiterated this uh during his post
parade press conference. However, uh it
seems that the Chinese foreign ministry
politely pushed back on that saying
there's no agreement. So that's
interesting. One final thought on this
and I think it's really really important
one to make Kate is that uh in all of
this it's very very carefully scripted.
there are no surprise outcomes and uh
one thing that was made very very clear
is who is big daddy here and that is Xi
Jinping without any doubt uh I think
that um this was also a show of
deterrence from China more to regional
neighbors rather than to far away
neighbors but uh you know and you know
we were reminded as well who is the
senior partner in the Beijing Moscow
relationship is definitely
Beijing and you know Xi Jinping is a
very very smart guy. We may not believe
with his politics or his oppression but
he he does know that for China to
continue its growth it needs a lot of
energy resources. That is why um his
gaze is also looking over there to the
Russian Far East which is very very
lightly protected now because of the war
in Ukraine but where there are massive
massive resources. So uh keep an eye on
that as it plays out in the in the years
ahead. That's really interesting that
you mentioned that because um one of the
analysts I was reading who who watched
the parade said that one of the
interesting things uh to look out for or
to think or to consider is what
President Putin and his generals would
be thinking when they were sitting there
in that parade knowing that they've
depleted forces to the east of the
country to the war in Ukraine and
knowing that they've been at war with
China in the last century.
Yeah. And imagine what Donald Trump was
thinking as he was sitting perhaps
watching this parade compared to that uh
so-called parade he had in Washington DC
for the anniversary of the US military
and somebody else's birthday as well.
Let's not forget. So yeah. Um but you
know I I mean I noticed um we we saw a
kind of probably deliberate emphasis on
more uh robotics on more drones uh
massive ones uh ones that go underwater,
ones that go in the air. Uh but uh these
were these were all stationary. We don't
know if they were uh tested. I noticed
even the robots that are meant to
deliver ammunition and other things to
the front lines were on trailers. Uh but
um you know they they they are the
Chinese are making advances in the
high-tech areas. But let's also remember
too that there's one big big component
that they've yet to solve and that is an
endless provision of not only energy but
also semiconductor chips. These are
becoming so so crucial in today's
battles, right? because they power a lot
of these uh autonomous uh you know
pieces of military equipment and it's
actually Taiwan that has that expertise.
China is way way behind in that field
and also with the US restricting uh
supply of technology and chips to China.
This is something that may hold them
back
and and when um people say that China um
is really the you mentioned he's the big
daddy uh Xiinping. Um, it's been said to
me that, you know, if China wanted to,
it could and it stopped helping support
Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russia
simply could not continue. Why does it,
do you think, not do that?
It's a really good question. Um, let me
answer it this way, Kate, if I can. Um,
one of the things we strongly believe
in, well, I and my circle of friends and
analysts is, uh, the main reason that,
uh, Russian President Vladimir Putin has
not used tactical nuclear weapons here
in Ukraine is because China said, "No
way. That's a red line." So, it it shows
you the kind of influence they have. But
also um I I think uh Xi Jinping doesn't
want to necessarily see weak Russia or
Russia fall because that would also
raise questions about his own uh
viability about you know other other
autocratic states as well that China
helps support. Um but you know uh maybe
uh maybe we're taking things a little
bit too far here because there was also
a conversation between Putin and she
that was picked up by a Chinese hot mic
saying that hey man it's possible now to
live to 150 years old. You know there's
things like organ transplants and things
like this. So you know it certainly fits
into the mindset of the autocrat that
you know they can live forever and they
can push things forever.
This is um this is actually this points
to the the way they the Chinese act is
that they always take the long range
view and they're always very very
strategic. It's a big uh chess board for
them and they know exactly where things
fall into the place. For example, the
the North Korean leader, I'm sure, was
told that these are your your red lines.
If you cross them, we're going to cut
you off. So, everyone knows their place
in this kind of ballet. And to that
point, why do you think Xi Jinping
allowed Kim Jong-un to meet on a
one-toone with President Putin?
Well, these are kind of client states in
the big chessboard game. And North Korea
has been um sending, as you know, heaps
of ammunition to Russia, thousands of uh
soldiers that a lot of them have died or
have been captured. Uh other things as
well. And uh we're not quite clear what
Russia is sending in return, but I'm
pretty sure it has to do also with
nuclear weapon technology, nuclear power
technology, because the one thing uh
Xinping doesn't want is for North Korea
to be a drag on him or his economy. So,
you know, let's let's let's um allow the
Russians to take up a bit of uh the
slack. And also you know by empowering
uh the DPRK it also sends a sorry it
also sends a signal to the west to
Donald Trump that they are they are a
menace and uh that you know they can be
also deployed perhaps in a future war
perhaps in a in a takeover of Taiwan to
to help defend the cause so to speak
and obviously didn't go unnoticed Donald
Trump saying that they were conspiring
against him. Um, did they push his
buttons, do you think, or or was it the
irony that it was interpreted as?
Uh, I I I think he probably watched it.
Uh, he was probably noticing who
standing where or, you know, who showed
up and who didn't. But one thing he
would have noticed is more criticism of
the United States and, you know, what
they see as unfair uh trade practices.
And also uh there's a fear that Mr. Modi
will be pushed more towards China's
embrace after the US have been courting
him forever and ever. But again, let's
not take things too far. Uh as I said,
the Pakistani leader was there. We will
remember that in the recent uh desktop
between India and Pakistan, it was the
Chinese that helped provide intelligence
and I I believe it was Chinese aircraft
as well. So uh there there are kind of
regional tensions there that uh kind of
u make this uh show of unity a bit fuzzy
too. Mr. Trump will do whatever he
wants. He will do whatever he can to
enrich himself, his family and his
friends. And then he doesn't care about
the cost to India or anybody else. And
how much do you think Donald Trump's
chaotic foreign policy and the tariffs
that you mentioned have actually pushed
these powers, China, India, Russia,
North Korea closer together,
irrespective of the limitations of their
alliances?
Yeah. Well, at least when it comes to
China and North Korea, the the phrase
self-reliance is a very big one. I think
they dream about it at night, both
leaders. And um you know, especially
China, if it needs to uh buddy up with
the thugs in Myanmar, so be it. And uh
that will because they need support too,
for instance, to press ahead against um
their opponents in in Myanmar. And in
return, what does China get? Access to
the north where it can lay gas
pipelines, exploit resources. So I think
everything is very carefully planned out
in terms of you know what what they all
of them um and and Russia has
limitations when it comes to this but it
does have vast availability of uh rare
earth minerals. All of them are taking
the long view that you know the United
States is heading into more of an
isolationist approach. It may swing its
tariff baton or sanctions baton as much
as it want it wants but through bricks
through the SEO and through other fora
where they meet they are planning for a
future uh without reliance on the United
States and that's one thing I don't
think it's gone through his thick head
yet. Uh just really interested to to get
your reaction to the u pictures that
emerged this week of a map behind the
head of Russia's armed forces, General
Garasimov, which showed redrawn borders
within Ukraine to include more areas
that are supposed to be Russian,
including not only the forlast already
claims, but is also Mikollay and Adessa.
Um was that could that must have been a
calculated move to show that map, do you
think?
Yeah, probably. I mean, it doesn't
surprise any of us. We all knew that
they have designs. They would love
nothing more than to make Ukraine a
landlocked country. And by moving up to
Mikoliv, and don't forget at the start
of the war, they were pretty darn close.
And including Odessa and then the
stretch from here up to the Moldover
border, perhaps even further, that would
uh seal the deal, so to speak, for them.
uh they have always had a fascination
with where I'm sitting right now with
Odessa and uh I think it is part of
their part of their plan but it would
come at a huge cost. I mean I don't want
to get into too much detail but if you
drive perhaps an hour um in the
direction of Nikolai from here you will
see a lot of fortifications that the
Ukrainians have been building. Um
there's also, you know, the Ukrainian
advantage that we saw quite early in the
war on the Black Sea. You know, these
remote drone remote drones, but also uh
many submarines capabilities to really
inflict damage on the Black Russia's
Black Sea fleet. In fact, they've
decapitated it in half pretty much. So
there are a lot of u military challenges
that Russia would have to overcome to to
reach this point. But uh let's also
throw this into the mix Kate is that
we're in September and later this month
parliamentary elections in Malddova and
I can tell you it it ain't looking good
in terms of u the ruling party led by
Maya Sandu holding on to power there.
There's a lot of Russian activity there
underneath the surface and not so
underneath the surface. And I mention
this because if Russia doesn't advance
militarily uh up to this point, it's
certainly doing that through its hybrid
war, let's also remember that they have
Transnistra there. So uh some some very
uh potentially turbulent weeks up ahead.
And how much concern is that causing in
Ukraine? I you know I I think uh the
belief here is that um let's uh let's
reset the button. Let's take stock of
where we are right now. Of course uh
there was a big um meeting at the
coalition of the willing that was
supposed to happen this week in Paris
mostly by hybrid format which tells you
something. leaders aren't showing up in
person. But a lot to to a lot of
Ukrainians here, it's a lot of blah blah
blah coming out of European leaders. And
um you know, I think this is a this is a
wakeup call to them that they have to
move even quicker than they already
have. They have moved at brenneck speed
to develop their own capabilities
especially in high-tech and drone
technology. It's there's u I can't even
put it into words. There's massive
disappointment here at the um the lack
of capability or lack of unwillingness
of European leaders to step up to the
plate. Sure, they're going to say,
"Yeah, we've given a lot to Ukraine in
terms of military might and dollars, but
uh look, even uh the UK, uh France, and
uh Italy have said no way to putting
troops on the ground." And those
European countries that have committed
troops to postwar Ukraine has said,
"Well, maybe on the border with Ukraine
and Poland or as far as Western Ukraine,
but that's about it."
And this lack of unity is being fully
and roundly exploited by the Kremlin,
isn't it? Basically, by repeating its
demands or its its red line, so-called
red lines that it won't see any troops
from NATO countries in in Ukraine
whatsoever. So, nothing really changes,
does it? and we're we're talking um
before the results of that virtual
meeting in Paris uh has taken place.
We're talking on Thursday morning. So,
we don't know exactly what's going to
come out of it. But, I'm just really
interested to know what do you think? I
mean, given the fact that any talk of
reassurance forces or troops on the
ground or security guarantees at the
moment is going nowhere because there
isn't even a ceasefire in order to be
able to put this into place. What
message do you think can come out of it?
is is perhaps the best thing a strong
message or or an influential message
towards President Trump, do you think?
And if so, what what would that be?
Yeah, I mean, part of this is a show to
um uh I mean, we're talking about
another daddy, aren't we, Mr. Trump? Is
to say, okay, um we know we still need
you. Uh we need your intelligence. We
need you to provide Patriot missile
systems to Ukraine. But we also want to
show you that yes, we are building up
our own capabilities as you have asked.
Uh we are kind of entering into a
formation where if peace does come to
Ukraine, we will be ready to be the
guaranters, the kind of tripwire force
if you will if if everything falls into
place. And they also uh believe uh that
uh when peace does come to Ukraine, the
US part of that puzzle will be provide
air cover and intelligence. Uh but um
you know I I I think a lot of this is
something which is being done on a very
technical level. We don't know all the
details. Whether it's something that
even reaches the short attention span of
the US president, I don't know. But
look, let's this is all everyone anybody
needs to know. is that what happened in
that circus in Alaska was very very
important because it showed us up close
that Donald Trump was so eager not to
only rehabilitate
uh Mr. Putin from his pariah coffin, but
also he seemed to have drunk some spiked
Russian Kool-Aid where he parrots a lot
of the Kremlin lines. Let's not forget
how he decimated USID. Ukraine was the
biggest recipient of their aid since the
start of the war. Uh, Voice of America,
all of these other things that the
Russians hate without lifting a finger.
Uh, Mr. Putin not only got that
diplomatic stage, and I got to say that
whole show seemed as if it was scripted
from beginning to end by the Kremlin.
And that whatever happened to these
punishing, you know, tariffs that Mr.
Trump promised on Russia if they don't,
you know, reach the peace table with
Ukraine. So, you know, can you blame the
Ukrainians for for being skeptical? No
one should.
No, exactly. And I'm just wondering to
sort of end where we started and the
constant bombardment of Ukraine and
yourself and the fact that I'm really um
saddened to hear that you you don't go
to Kev anymore and that you feel that
you can't do that. I mean, daily life,
what's it like? Well, here in Odessa,
uh, life does go on. Although, uh, there
is there are deepening concerns about
harsh, uh, military, I can't even call
them recruitment tactics, but they're
called the titsaka, the kind of
military, uh, police who go around and
literally grab men off the streets and
if their documents aren't in order or if
they're evading the draft, they're taken
immediately and on very short notice
sent to the front line. Hence uh that's
caused a lot of drop in business here. I
have friends who own small businesses
here and they say business is way down
because men just don't want to go out.
They don't want to risk you know being
nabbed off the streets. And then you
know I think it was Alexander Binman who
said that um this is a war being fought
mostly on the shoulders of the middle
class. And you go around Ukraine and you
see that, you know, all of those elites
who have in one way or the other,
legally or illegally, gained millions or
billions of dollars, are either abroad
or living life to the max. You know,
Kate, it saddens me. I was um you know,
maybe one year into the war sitting in
one of uh Warsaw's more expensive
restaurants. I was being treated. I
didn't pay. But, you know, I was
overhearing a conversation by uh clearly
a Ukrainian uh chap who bought a
certificate showing he has a nonprofit
and that allows him to, you know, go
across the border into the EU. It allows
him to send his kid to British schools.
And you know, I mention this because I
don't think it's just a small example,
but it's emblematic of the bigger
picture here. Is somehow those who have
connections, those who have the means
have either left or they bought their
way out of the war. And that really
really gets under the skin of people
here who I've either lost somebody dear
in the war or those who are preparing to
go to battle. you know, they might
question like, you know, what whatever
happened to that that part of the puzzle
that isn't present. So, it it it kind of
adds to also the the concerns about
corruption here that that war is not
being fought to the max. So, but one
last point and this is really really
important to make is that let that not
put any idea into people's minds that
people here are weak or they want to
give up or they want to give
concessions. There is not one person in
Ukraine that has not that has not lost a
loved one or a close one in this war.
Hence, the last thing they want to do is
give up or give up territory because
that would be seen as, you know, why did
these young men and women die for?
Marabos, it's always good to talk to
you. Thank you very much.
My pleasure. Thank you for having me.
You've been watching Frontline for Times
Radio. If you'd like to know more about
the war in Ukraine, you can subscribe
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Bye-bye.
