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For a quarter of a century, the rule behind the Kremlin's closed doors was simple. Vladimir Putin's wealth for loyalty deal with the oligarchs was like an omra. Stay out of politics and I'll make you the richest men in the world. This deal allowed the oligarchs to plunder Russia's natural resources. In return, the oligarchs offered Putin absolute unquestioning loyalty. But the deal shattered the moment the first Russian tank crossed the Ukrainian border on February 24th, 2022. The West's ironclad sanctions tore up this tacet contract. The yachts in Sardinia are gone. The mansions in London were frozen. Billions of dollars in wealth evaporated overnight. And with this economic apocalypse, Putin's 25-year aura of invincible leadership also collapsed. The old rules no longer apply in the Kremlin. The gears of the system that made his power absolute have begun to loosen. And this collapse is rising not from the front lines, but from Putin's inner circle. The billionaires who once grew in his shadow are now choosing different paths. Some are leaving the country. Some are sinking into silence. And some are now refusing to obey every order without question. From Putin's perspective, the greatest threat is no longer the West, but rather lurking in the corridors of his own palace. And to get to the root of this silent rebellion, we must first understand how the myth of Putin's invincible leadership built up over the years has begun to crumble. For a quarter of a century, Putin promised the Russian people and the elite class one thing, absolute power. He was the man who pulled the country together after the chaotic collapse of the '90s, crushed the rebellions in Cheschna, drew the border with Georgia, took Crimea without firing a shot, and stood tall against the West. The oligarchs multiplied their wealth under the wings of this power. The people at least consoled themselves with stability and a modicum of national pride. However, the attack launched against Ukraine turned into a final act written not to crown this narrative, but to shatter it. The promise of Kiev in three days turned into weeks of fiascos, thousands of dead soldiers, and sunken warships. The whole world witnessed the true face of the Kremlin's army. Each defeat tore away another piece of the flawless strategist mask woven around Putin. The once unrivaled leader has now become a figure who miscalculates and tastes defeat. Moreover, this shift in perception was not limited to the battlefield. The sanctions imposed by the West also upset the economic balance. The assets of oligarchs in the West were seized, accounts were frozen, yachts were impounded, and villas were locked up. Profits in the country are now being spent directly on the front lines. They are going not to their coffers but to minefields and ammunition depots. In this situation, loyalty also loses its meaning. And it is precisely at this moment that the cracks within the Kremlin began to become visible. To understand this internal collapse within the Kremlin, we must decipher three different tactics of betrayal. These three cases serve as lessons showing how Putin's system has rotted and how it has been betrayed at different levels. The first and perhaps most tragic profile of betrayal is that of Mikail Friedman. Friedman was no ordinary oligarch. He was one of the original billionaires of the 1990s, the founder of Alphab Bank, the brain behind Russia's largest private bank. Friedman never saw himself as a crude Silviki. He positioned himself as a global citizen living in London. A businessman respected by the West. He donated billions of dollars to western charities and served on international advisory boards. Putin's invasion of Ukraine shattered this carefully constructed world. As soon as the war began, Freriedman made a strategic mistake, thinking he could escape the West trap. He published a letter stating that the war was a tragedy and that the bloodshed must stop. To understand how this move backfired is to understand the whole equation. Friedman's plan was simple. to escape sanctions by sending the West the message, "I am not Putin." But for the West, this made no difference. For Western governments, Friedman was one of Putin's original wallets. He was the main facilitator of the system. Forgiving him would have meant forgiving the system itself. But the West did not forgive him. All his wealth, banks, and international assets were frozen. He was sentenced to house arrest in London. But the real disaster unfolded on the Moscow front for the Kremlin. Friedman's call for peace was coded as desertion, as treason in wartime. Putin's propagandists branded him a cowardly traitor, graveling to the West. He was on the verge of losing his shares in Alpha Bank. Friedman's pitiful situation taught the other oligarchs a terrible lesson. Trying to curry favor with the West is suicide because the West will not forgive you. and the Kremlin will never forget you. If Fridman was the one who fell into the trap, Oleg Tinkov was the one who lit the fire. Tinkov was Russia's new generation tech billionaire. He was the founder of Tinkov Bank, Russia's first and most successful digital bank. He was always a provocative, loud, and western admiring figure. Even while battling cancer, he did not shy away from criticizing the Russian regime on social media. When the war began, Tinkoff remained silent for a while. However, once the military disaster in Ukraine became clear, unlike Friedman, Tinkov did not use diplomatic language. In April 2022, Tinkov described the war as insane and irrational. He said the Russian army was useless and accused everyone in the Kremlin of being stupid. This was not criticism. It was an insult to the heart of the system. The Kremlin's response was immediate and ruthless. According to Tinkoff, the Kremlin administration immediately contacted Tinkoff Bank and threatened, "If you don't fire this man, we will nationalize your bank and bankrupt it." The bank's board of directors was forced to oust Tinkoff. But the punishment didn't end there. This was an operation of industrial cannibalism. The Kremlin forced Tinkoff to sell his entire fortune, namely billions of dollars worth of Tinkoff bank shares. Who was the buyer? the Kremlin's new king, Vladimir Putatan. The sale price, according to Tinkoff, only 3% of the shares real value. This was not a sale. It was a seizure. This was horrific proof of how the Kremlin's wealth loyalty deal works. You are rich as long as you are loyal. The moment you speak, everything is gone. Tinkov had to leave billions of dollars behind and formally renounce his Russian citizenship to save his life. He was now an exile. The Tinkov case taught the oligarchs this. If you speak out, you lose not only your fortune but also your identity. Freriedman fell into the trap. Tinkov went into exile. But Yevginny Pragoian, he rewrote the rules of betrayal. Pragoian was not an oligarch. He was the system's darkest creation. Born of Putin himself. Putin's chief was his dirty work operator. The Vagner army was the Kremlin's unofficial iron fist. But the war in Ukraine turned this monster against its creator. Pragoian saw tens of thousands of his soldiers die because of the incompetence of the Ministry of Defense. And he realized that Putin was protecting these traitors. What happened in June 2023 was not a betrayal, but an attempted rebellion. He took Rostoff without firing a single shot and marched on Moscow. Those 24 hours were the greatest moment of weakness for Putin's regime in 25 years. Putin couldn't stop Pogo at that moment. He had to negotiate, but the Kremlin does not forgive. 2 months later, Pragoian's plane exploded in the sky over the Tvare region while flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg. This was no accident. It was the most blatant assassination in modern Russian history. The Pragoian case delivered the ultimate message that froze the blood of all other oligarchs. The price of betraying Thesar is death. Pragoian's execution was loud and symbolic. But behind the Kremlin walls, a much quieter, much more insidious purge was underway. This is the wave of suspicious deaths. The most symbolic case was the death of Lucy President Ravil Magenov. Lucy was the only major Russian company to call for an immediate end to the war right at the start of the conflict. This was an act of disobedience the Kremlin would never forget. In September 2022, Magenov died after falling from a sixth floor window at an elite hospital in Moscow. Magenov was not alone. Since the war began, dozens of top executives, oligarchs, and even generals have committed suicide, fallen downstairs, or suffered sudden heart attacks. This silent purge is even more effective than Pragoian's noisy execution. Because it feeds the tone of panic on the internal front, if you make a mistake, you won't be publicly executed. Your existence will simply be erased. These three types of betrayal and purging methods have created a new equation in the Kremlin. The oligarchs now understood Putin's ship was sinking and staying on board meant death. Trying to escape the ship meant suicide. There was only one option left to survive the shipwreck. They had to chart a new course secretly behind the captain's back. Today, a new power center is rising, which we can call pragmatic realists. questioning Putin's war madness and economic suicide. Analyzing the three key players of this new era is to see how Russia's postputin future is taking shape. The first and most vocal example of the new pragmatists is Oleg Derapasca, the aluminum king and founder of Rousal. Derapasca was one of the names closest to Putin's inner circle, even establishing family ties with Putin's family at one point. But Derapasca had one difference. He experienced the power of Western sanctions before anyone else in 2018. The sanctions imposed on Rousul at that time nearly bankrupted his empire. Derapasca had personally experienced what an economic disaster fighting the West could be. That is why when the war began on February 24th, 2022, Derapasca refused to remain silent. He repeatedly called the war madness and a huge mistake. He openly criticized economic policies. He called the Russian central bank's interest rate hikes madness. Derapasca's ripple effect is this. He served as a canary in the coal mine, voicing what could not be said within the Kremlin. He became the voice of the economic suicide fears that other oligarchs and technocrats shared silently. Why is he still alive? Because Derapasca knew the red line. He never directly criticized Putin. He criticized the system, the policies, and the incompetent managers. Moreover, because he managed a massive industrial asset like Rousul, it was much harder for Putin to get rid of him. If Derapasca is the vocal opposition, Vagget Alec Perov is the quietest but most destructive opposition. Alec Perov was the founder and CEO of Luke Oil, Russia's largest private oil company. He was not an oligarch created by Putin. He was an old guard energy giant, a holdover from the Soviet era who built his own empire in the 1990s. His power came much more from Lucille's global operations than from Putin's political backing. Just a few weeks after the war began in April 2022, Vajit Allearov suddenly resigned as CEO of Luke Oil. This reverberated louder than a nuclear bomb within the Kremlin walls. Why? Because in Putin's vertical power system, someone in such a key position, especially during a war, simply cannot resign. Resigning of your own accord is an act of rebellion against Thesar's authority. The ripple effect of this resignation was enormous. Without saying a word, Allecarov had sent the strongest possible message. I will not be part of this dirty game, this economic suicide, and this moral catastrophe. Combined with Lucy's call to stop the war, this revealed a deep crack at the heart of one of Russia's most important industries. Alec Perof sacrifice the management of his empire to protect his multi-billion dollar fortune. Derapasca warned Alec Perov withdrew. However, the third and most dangerous pragmatist, Vladimir Putanin, did none of these things. He thrived on this chaos. Potan is the chairman of Norilk Nickel. He is the ultimate outcome of this crisis's ripple effect. While others sink, he builds an empire. Potenine's genius lies in how he survived. First, he largely escaped Western sanctions because the nickel and palladium produced by Nurilk nickel are so vital to Western industries that imposing full sanctions on Potin would have meant shooting the West in the foot. Second, he is an industrial cannibal. While other oligarchs weakened, Potin picked up their carcasses. He bought Tinkov's billiond dollar Tinkoff bank empire for next to nothing. Not only that, as Western banks fled Russia, he closed their Russian assets for almost nothing. The significance of this ripple effect is this. Putin's system consolidates itself by devouring the weak and transferring their assets to a new pragmatic and ruthless king like Podin. He is the new model oligarch, independent of the West with wealth entirely within Russia and feeding off chaos. This is version 2.0 of Putin's wealth loyalty deal. The new pragmatists and the liquidated have revealed a single truth for the entire Russian elite. The question is no longer how do we remain loyal to Putin, but how do we survive after Putin? Pragoian's noisy rebellion and execution prove that direct defiance means death. Therefore, the elite have adopted the doctrine of passive resistance. The first step in this silent resistance is to slow down the war economy from within. For example, an aluminum or steel oligarch like Derapasca does not say no when he receives an order from the Kremlin for thousands of tons of production. Instead, he says, "Certainly, sir." But deliberately slows down production. Suddenly, supply chain problems arise in factories. Chemicals get stuck at customs. Steel sheets fail quality tests. Skilled workers fall ill. Everything is procedurally correct, but production comes to a standstill. These oligarchs do not directly betray Putin. They only produce enough to keep the front lines going, moving the rest of their wealth abroad or hiding it in the domestic market. The result is disaster at the front. Generals wait for ammunition, but it does not come. Tanks need spare parts, but they cannot be found. The second stage of passive resistance is being carried out outside the Kremlin's borders. Secret diplomacy and escape plans. When Frightman's open bargaining attempt ended in disaster, the other oligarchs learned their lesson. No one is talking openly with the West anymore. Contacts are being made behind the scenes. The most expensive law and lobbying firms in London, Washington, and Brussels have been hired. The goal is clear. To get their names removed from the sanctions lists. These contacts are not just for money. In return, the secrets of Putin's regime, its economic weaknesses, and sometimes even military information are leaking to Western intelligence. The third and most dangerous step of the resistance is investing in the future. Smart oligarchs seeing the end of the Putin era approaching are forming secret alliances with potential leaders of a postputin Russia. The first group in the power struggle are the technocrats, seen as the weakest, but also the most likely transitional figures. Two names lead this click. Prime Minister Mikail Mishen and the Kremlin's gray cardinal Sergey Kirenko. Mikail Mishen is Russia's Prime Minister. Putin appointed him to digitize Russia's cumbersome bureaucracy and modernize tax collection. Since the war began, his job has been to prevent the wholesale collapse of the Russian economy under Western sanctions. Sergey Kiryenko, meanwhile, is the Kremlin's brain for domestic policy. He is the technocrat at the head of the ideological apparatus, overseeing the Russification of the occupied Ukrainian territories. So, how can these two bureaucrats be candidates for the throne? Because they are seen as caretakers. They have no personal power base. Therefore, they are puppet leader candidates for other major clicks. The second click, the Silviki, is Russia's real power. This group despises the pragmatism of the technocrats or oligarchs. For them, this war is not economic, but existential. They are the hawks themselves who want an allout struggle with the West and a Stalinist style purge within Russia. The brain of this click is Nikolai Patrachef, Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrachef is Putin's comrade from the KGB, whom he has known since the 1970s. Many Western think tanks describe Patricef as Putin's brain, even more hardline than Putin himself. The sword of the clique is FSB director Alexander Bortnikov. Bortnikov controls the massive internal security apparatus that monitors, arrests, or quietly eliminates all opposition and all traders within Russia. This click strategic checkmate move relies on chaos. Their plan is to seize power under the pretext of protecting national security in the event of Putin's sudden departure from the scene. This click represents a more repressive, more militaristic, and more isolated Russia. They represent not the oligarch's wealth agreement but the intelligence services absolute power agreement. The third and most mysterious click is the princes of the future. These are the new generation of leadership candidates cultivated by Putin's system itself. Two names stand out in this group. Dimmitri Patrusev and Alex a duumin. Dimmitri Patricev is a dynastic candidate. He is the son of Nikolai Patrachev. He currently serves as minister of agriculture. This is a classic Tsaris style succession plan. Patrachev holds power but passes the throne to his son. This is a plan to make the Siloviki's power permanent through a new generation of dynasty. However, the most whispered name is Alexe Dumin. Dumin is known as the Kremlin's shadow heir. Putin has absolute trust in him. To test him, Putin first made him deputy defense minister, then in 2014 made him one of the key commanders overseeing the annexation of Crimea. When he succeeded, Putin appointed him governor of the Tula region. Here is the bigger picture. Three groups are fighting each other in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin's 25-year aura of invincibility has been shattered. The wealth loyalty deal was executed by the West's economic trap. The oligarch's betrayal triggered a ruthless open-ended power struggle in the Kremlin. There are now only three scenarios on the table. A Stalinstyle bloody purge, a controlled palace coup, or a chaotic collapse worse than the 1990s. Whichever it may be, the once absolute ruler now finds himself besieged in his own castle by the wolves he created, fighting not just for the throne, but for his very survival. Thank you for watching.
or a quarter of a century, the rule behind the Kremlin's closed doors was simple.
Vladimir Putin's wealth-for-loyalty deal with the oligarchs was like an Omertà :
“Stay out of politics, and I'll make you the richest men in the world.”
This deal allowed the oligarchs to plunder Russia's natural resources.
In return, the oligarchs offered Putin absolute, unquestioning loyalty.
But the deal shattered the moment the first Russian tank crossed the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022.
The West's ironclad sanctions tore up this tacit contract.
The yachts in Sardinia are gone.
The mansions in London were frozen.
Billions of dollars in wealth evaporated overnight.
And with this economic apocalypse, Putin's 25-year aura of invincible leadership also collapsed.
The old rules no longer apply in the Kremlin
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