Welcome back. We are joined today by Gilbert Doctorov, a historian and international affairs analyst and also
author of the book War Diaries: The Russia Ukraine War. So, thank you for
coming on. I um really wanted to discuss with you the uh strike last night as uh
as Russia launched its orig in western Ukraine. And this seems
obviously to be a warning to the NATO countries in response to recent escalations. I wanted to know how you
are assessing this situation. Well, to be fair about it, we are in the fog of war. Uh the the Russians did not
did not come out quickly with a description of what they didn't wear.
It's coming out in bits and draps. Um I I understand that they fired at least
one Archnik in the Lv region, but other reports said that they fired six or
nine. Could be that that the reports are confusing the um the little missiles
that the single irrational carries and delivers to the area uh where they fly
in separately. Or it could be in fact they were six. That's not clear. the
damage. I'm also not clear the extent of damage because the reports that I have seen indicated that the target one of
the targets because I say there there are several many missiles that are released by one of the targets was the
largest single uh gas storage in Ukraine.
Now presumably if that were hit, there should have been an explosion of enormous proportions. But it would also
drain uh Ukraine of heating fire heating uh that would cover the country. So um
it could have been something devastating and I suspect it was something exactly devastating because the Ukrainians are
going berserk. The foreign minister of Ukraine has called for United Nations Security Council meeting to discuss this
horrible attack and that indicates that this was very
serious. But no one is yet saying what exactly was hit and no one is
demonstrating the effectiveness of of the adnik which as recall in it first
time used in neepro against a a military production facility. um it was very
disputed whether it had indeed a nuclear bomb type of energy or was simply a a
few tons of of TNT. So that will be very important to see the followup what
destruction actually took place to remember this was not an isolated
um one missile attack. It was part again of a of a confluence of of drones of um
uh cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The destruction uh was spread
across several cities including Kiev and um we can imagine that something serious
happened in Kiev. Um, we can also imagine that the Russians gave advanced
warning to uh, Zalinski about the impending attack because he went on air
last night telling Ukrainians to stay indoors in basement because a big attack
was coming. So uh this by itself is demonstrative of the Russians confidence
that their weapons uh are invincible cannot be stopped by patriots or any
other known existing anti- aircraft or air defense system. That sounds logical
and is would be in line with the message that they have for the west. Forget about your dome in Germany. It's hope
forget about your your dome in in United States. These are utterly useless
concepts given that the present state of Russian armaments. So it would re
receive a big message. Uh the minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine helped
helped to uh to spread disseminate that message. I don't know if he is aware of
how damaging his statements were overall, but trying to tell Europe they
have to they have to look alive, that they have to do something because um this is just it's just on the on the
edge of the European Union. Do you realize that? And here we have the Russians are are attacking with a with a
hypersonic missile and just add two or three more mile minutes and that same missile could be in Berlin. Well, he did
a wonderful job for the Russians of sky of scaring the Europeans out of their
wits. So, I I think that was that was not very carefully thought through when the Ukrainians made these statements.
The the little information that came out, the Russians were saying that this is a a return visit. This is a their
answer to the um the attack the drone attack on uh President Putin's residence
in Valdai in his country residence where his his
common law wife and children live. Small detail um that this was an answer to it.
Uh but I think uh that is uh that is just part of the story. the um uh there
have been many um acts of provocation that's mounting provocation by the west
by the United States against Russia. There was that attack on his h on his
residence 10 days ago or whatever. There is the seizure of the Russian flags of
tanker in the mi off of Iceland. There is the reputed um agreement of Trump to
back the um the so-called peace terms that were uh finalized and agreed by the
coalition of the willing willing uh in in Paris at the start of the week within
with Whitaker uh present with sorry Whitkoff present
and um there the there was in the air the
notion that Russia will be intimidated by the 500% tariffs that are about to be
imposed assuming that the bill in the Senate passes which it will and that the House backs it and the and that Trump
does what he said that he will sign it because he has no choice. Um the the
Senate is 82 82 votes in favor of it. So his veto could could be overruled at once. And that 500% tariff on countries,
it's a secondary tariff on countries that are buying Russian oil. Uh which
includes three of the four uh founding countries of bricks as Brazil and India
and China. um that would be used as a cudgel to um to get the Russians, get
Putin to sit at the negotiating table and sign what has just been agreed by by
uh the EU leaders and Zanski in Paris, which amounts to inflicting a um
capitulation on Russia. Uh this is the way things are going. So
it's understandable that with all of these developments that are against its
interests and which assume that it has no ability to respond uh the Russians would act and they've
acted in a way that I think the the real patriots and the pressure the people in
the close circle of of Vladimir Putin uh in Moscow who have certainly been
pressuring him to drop the friendly the uh um
gently gently approach and to show the fist. I think these people will be
satisfied because everyone is has made one demand
use those and stop just talking about and finally
he's done that. How many of the were used? What with what exact damage? We'll
find out in the days to come. That's a good point that uh how how do you assess the originalic strike? Is it
uh you know it has multiple u warheads or in this case dummy warheads. So it's
um it's uh yeah it's just unclear how what how much how many of them were
launched or if there was just the one. Um but a lot of the anger of Russia
obviously came out after the attack on Putin's residence. Many people have made this point that the Russians didn't
really show this much anger in the past and at least my my my take on it though
has to be seen in the context on the attack on uh Russia Russia strategic
deterrent because it it just it shouldn't be that hard to draw a common
thread around this because between 2022 and 2025 we've seen multiple attacks on
this Engles air base uh which is where Russia hosts its nuclear armed strategic
bombers and it's very doubtful that Ukrainians would have achieved this without the backing of western
intelligence agencies and uh also we saw back in May of 24 that uh there was this
attacks on Russia's strategic nuclear early warning radar which obviously has
no purpose at all in this war uh the proxy war in Ukraine that is and in June
of last year we saw this attack on Russia's nuclear bombers actually destroying many of them um which are key
to their nuclear deterrent. And of course last month was this attack on uh
Russia's well sorry Putin's residence and according to people like Aristovich
there's um it's uh it also hosts a nuclear command center which is why it
was seen as such a dangerous attack because you know any of these incidents
uh would have been unthinkable during the cold war. This would have been essentially what would have been seen to
have triggered a possible nuclear exchange. Yet now we're seeing this becoming more and more bold and uh it
seems as if not just the British but also American intelligence agencies are deeply involved in this. Do you think
this is why the Russians are reacting so fiercely now that uh they essentially
see this as a western attack uh on their nuclear deterrent?
I think this is a factor. There's the they have to look also at the dynamics of power within Russia and the
the position of of the supreme commander. Um, I have the highest
respect for what Vladimir Putin has done to restore Russia from what I saw when I
lived there in 1990s, which was a erect economy, a destroyed um society, a
country that was popularized and was demoralized,
possibly beyond redemption. Now, he he didn't start it. really the redemption that started already 199 1998
um uh but he picked it up and carried it
in a way that nobody could foresee and the success has been dramatic uh really
he has done the achievements of a Peter the great um without having to to send
hundreds of thousands of millions of peasants to their deaths and rebuilding it has an astonishing improvement. At
the same time, I reserve the right to be critical of his role in defense and his
role in dealing with the west. And I don't think only of the latest the
latest events. I wrote several years ago that uh I was urging Vladimir Putin to
take a lesson from Nik Nikita Kushov. Nobody ever dared to call Nikita
Kushchov a murderer or a thug or similar even if he was a murderer and a thug.
They didn't dare. Um imagine that they could say that in public. They have done
that to to Putin going back a decade. Um
uh and this is because he never responded with force. He never took out
his shoe and banged it on the table as Kushv did. He never said to the west we would bury you. Of course that was later
explained didn't mean it literally figuratively. Nonetheless, it was well
understood that that Russia had the wherewithal to destroy destroy everybody on Earth. Um because the the amount of
nuclear weapons at the time were 10 20 times enough to destroy all life on this
planet. So Kushchev had no u hesitation
to threaten. He was very brave. He may have been a crude man, but he
certainly was not a stupid man, but he was very brave and he took risks. He took risks with the national survival of
Russia. Mr. Putin is a much more sophisticated man. He is a very
intelligent man. is and he is a man with legal training
and a legal turn of moment but he has not had the force of Kushov to put the
fear of God in the in the competitors dash adversaries
outright enemies of Russia and we are it so the problem that Russia
has which is which is now expressing itself in these this dramatic IC very
threatening developments uh as for example the the the firing of
the Seshnik to within 100 kilometers of of the Polish border and an attack on uh
on the reservoir that is the life support for gas for Ukraine.
um this is um something that's been long and coming and now that it's arrived we
have to expect more of the same and this puts particularly Mr. Trump and
particularly the eubristic command that he has around him that are now feeling
so strong and powerful after they have humbled Venezuela
uh and even taken a Russian uh oil tanker Russian flagged oil tanker at
sea. They are feeling um like the lords of the universe. uh Peter Hagsith is the
most notorious and Marco Rubio next to him. They really need to be sobered up.
the remark that uh Demitri Maniff said in response to the Ukrainian
complaints over this archnic attack was that we just administered a um
anti-csychotic inoculation on the Ukrainians. Uh well, put it into
milder English, a kind of sobering up attack on the Ukrainians. And I think
this will be understood in the capitalists of the west as a sobering up attack for them. Uh the note I think
that we are past the point where the where Vladimir Putin is going to
tolerate visits by Vitkov um to uh to hold his hand for 3 hours or
5 hours and talk about a a peace settlement which the United States is
utterly unable to um to help realize. I think that the Russians will s will now
proceed on one track of resolving the war by their terms and by their military
means. So, a lot of things have changed in the last few days, but it took a long time to come to this moment.
Well, we've seen all these strange developments out of the US uh that is they seem to have encouraged the
European leaders to um to push for sending their troops into Ukraine after
an end of the war. They even seem to have gone to the extent that the Europeans believed that they would get some back stop from the Americans. So
it's this uh it doesn't seem like they necessarily then want to end the war but rather to as the running out of
Ukrainians instead put the Europeans on the front line. But then um so I guess
my question is are the negotiations all nonsense by now? It doesn't seem like there's anything worthless less uh left
of substance. We also see these reports of course in the New York Times that Trump has been giving the green light
for attacks on Russian tankers refineries. Some were wondering are they simply trying to sabotage Trump or they
or they or is Trump actually behind this? But to some extent this point doesn't really seem relevant. I mean is
is Trump deceptive towards the Ukrainian sorry towards towards the Russians or is
he simply weak? that is that he can't control his own house that his intelligence agencies and his own staff
are essentially doing a policy independent of him. I'm just wondering that does it really matter though
because especially now that you see the that Trump is uh well the Americans are
seizing Russian ships as well the if he has to be extraordinary weak if he can't
push back against any of this. So it does seem that he's just um uh will
assume this role of a mediator. So he gets some goodwill from the Russians and he's taking advant advantage uh to to
every extent that that he can but again weak or deceptive to what does it really
matter then there doesn't seem to be any possibility of making any peace. If anything they say that the Europeans are
the spoilers but they seem to be egging on the Europeans as well. So uh how do you see this? Is the negotiations now
only for optics or are is this still possibility? Fog of war extends also to analysis of
of Mr. Trump. There's nothing foggier than what's going on around him. I I a day ago I put
out a uh an essay looking at the the
question, is there a method to his madness? That that this is mad is obvious, but is there a method to it? Uh
are we being deceived? Uh everything around Donald Trump is deception. He has used deception as his
main vehicle for achieving his aims. He used deception with the Iranians before
attack by by luring that into negotiations. Uh while he's preparing to
to attack them in the most vicious way. uh the nothing is what it sounds like or
seems like and I never take any of his words at face value this what he is
doing now um it um it's it seems that
uh well I'll stop devote attention to something uh very very hot what he wants
to do with uh with Greenland I I
I was very impressed to read in the the editorial of the Financial Times uh I
think it appeared this morning or late last night um in which they were they were addressing the question of what
Europe should do uh uh in uh with respect to through
Donald Trump's threats uh his designs on Greenland
and uh they understood that Europe has almost u has very few leaders and that
Europe is is very very weak. So they were proposing combination
of incentives and um realistic push back
um to deal with Trump's uh latest uh planned adventure agreement. Um on on
the one hand uh there would be uh a a promise to step up Europe
European not just Danish but all European investment uh in defense of green of of Greenland so that the issue
that Trump has raised that this is security risk for the United States is not properly defended. The Russians and
Ukraine and the and the Chinese are running their ships just off of Greenland. it opens a hole in the in the
um in the Arctic and so forth. That would be addressed. And uh on the other hand, they would
remind uh Trump that um they are ready
to leave NATO and that then if they leave NATO over this violation of basic
principles of the NATO charter by the United States in seizing assets one of the NATO members then that would that
would weaken America the US defenses. I found this amazing that the editorial
group wrote this without uh thinking for a moment that these could be that is the
breakup of NATO and the dissolution of the EU are exactly what Trump wants.
So uh on the one hand you've got his ambitions which everyone's denouncing as as imperialism the law and it's
incarnate possible that's all it is but it's also possible that Trump that the
man is using this attack on Greenland
to achieve what he otherwise cannot achieve and very much wants to. He cannot take the United States out of
NATO, but he can force NATO to dissolve itself because they see him as an enemy.
Uh so I for this reason, Glenn, I'm very cautious about uh making a definitive
interpretation of what's going on. Uh Mr. Trump is unbelievably devious
person. uh this the fact that the Washington Post had a Pinocchio chart on him in its
first in his first term of counting daily what lies spread uh that that was
justified of course and it's I think it's it's been raised to a still great art in his second term now
yeah I thought that was a great point and all the Europeans they came up with this uh ways they could counter Trump
that is so well we can because you go to war against the United States obviously, but they could threaten to expel US
troops from bases. And I thought, but but the Europeans want them to stay there. This was the whole point in in
August when when uh Trump may telling more or less the Baltic states and others that we're planning to pull down
our forces or draw down our forces in in Europe. In the Baltic states, the the
Europeans went to panic. Suddenly we have all these nonsense stories about Russian drones near airports with
absolute zero evidence. You know the Russians violating Estonian airspace. The hybrid war is coming. America you
can't go. You know this. I mean it's the Europeans who want the Americans to stay
and it's the Americans who want to reduce their presence. So it seemed like very strange uh strange punishment uh
indeed. Um but uh uh I also I often make
the point that what the Europeans should do is just uh well essentially threaten
that they will respond militarily because this would be uh a disaster. Looks like Trump he's he's the source of
his success is to make everything short short wars. So but but like Panama, you know, he makes a little threat. they
they give him something, you know, seems Gaza just let the Israelis just burn
everything down, but then put something in place to stop it. Bomb Iran for a few days and strike and then come in and
make a peace deal, get it over with. And now Venezuela as well. A lot of the hawks now are a bit critical because
he's saying, "Well, this isn't nation building. We haven't taken over the government." But instead, he's claiming that the acting president will have to
do as she's told, otherwise he will strike some more. Again, he's he's looking for quick fixes. I think he's
not a opponent of wars. He's just an opponent of forever wars. So, as soon as
he can get the war over quickly and they move on to the next one, that's a success. So, you know, if the Dan don't
want to lose Greenland, just put in place something that might pull in the United States over a long term or create
a more of a scandal. And uh, you know, he can't be bothered. He has so many other projects he wants to move on to uh
which he, you know, can be quick in and out. And I I just uh uh I I you know I
think people either want to see him as being a wararmonger or a man of peace. I just think he's he's he's willing to use
military force in any way to achieve his goals. But he doesn't want to get drawn in. That's when all your resources, all
your focus, everything gets sucked in and you can't really uh do anything else. And I I think that's his main
concern. I'm not sure if you if you see it the same way that this is
uh I guess this is his approach. It's too early to draw conclusions on what his uh real objectives are. He
doesn't ship his hand. That is the main tactic that he uses as a negotiate to be
an unknown. Um, I think as a as as commentators, we are we have an
obligation to draw a distinction between what we'd like to see happen and what we
acknowledge may happen. And I've just described what I would like to see happen that he proceeds in a bellose way
and the Europeans uh cut off their nose to spike their face as we say in American English. that is they do
themselves harm thinking they're going to harm him by uh disbanding NATO. But
the reality is I mean the other reality uh the greater likelihood is that there
will be an accommodation with Denmark. the 20 the 25 out of 27 European uh
heads of state or heads of government um will very likely quietly behind closed
doors apply maximum pressure on Denmark to just shut up and get it over with and
to take the offer that Trump gives them to buy them out. Um, I think to buy out
the the population of of of uh of Greenland, the Inuit there would
probably take 1 million1 million per person. That's $55 million. It's small
change. Don't even count that. But um some billions to Denmark to get them to
agree to the sale. Um I think that's probably has a greater likelihood than
the scenario that I prefer, the end of NATO. the uh I mean Denmark has has a
very strong uh social market economy with a very good still intact social
services and they are going to be impacted terribly as the budget for for
defense rises to 5% of GDP. Um a helping hand from Mr. Trump could make uh
Denmark one of the biggest winners in the proc in the coming 10 years. um by
providing them with the capital to do both both guns and butter while their
neighbors in the EU will not have that that cushion that Mr. Trump is about to
provide. Well, I I recently spoke with Professor
Mshimer. He he was making the point that we already long ago crossed the line of
a proxy war to a direct war. that is that these attacks are now not through Ukraine but we are gauging directly and
I guess the only question now is uh when does Russia retaliate directly because
as we saw with Dnik they struck energy facilities in western Ukraine but uh the
warning nonetheless was for the NATO countries uh but the west isn't really
taking these warnings and again it has to be pointed out that what the whole
purpose why there's a warning, why they haven't struck yet is because well then you can't stop the escalation
anymore. Then it will spiral out of control. But uh how close are we to a
massive direct war? Because once Russia retaliates against NATO, then we are at
war uh without any pretense of uh simply helping Ukraine. So
again, I know that the Russian are restrained so far and so but there's still a mounting pressure on President
Putin and uh but in the in the West here you especially in Europe they they're very dismissive. They just see this as
you know we we can't reward their bullying or or their threats. It's our moral obligation to ignore any any
deterrent that the Russians are putting up there. So, how close do you think we are to a well, not a world war, but uh a
direct war between NATO countries and Russia by them actually beginning to retaliate. But in other areas, we also
see that Russia's going up the escalation ladder. That is at least it's um
carrying out more more destructive attacks. So again, not just uh well
obviously on the energy infrastructure, other infrastructure that upholds the economic and military potential of uh of
Ukraine. And as a good example, if I'm not mistaken, Klitschkos, the mayor of
Kiev, he he made the request now for citizens that is of Kiev, the capital of
Ukraine. if they can, they should start leaving the capital given that there's no electricity in many parts. And uh
again, the whole idea is we we can't sustain this large population, get out. And I've heard from several Russian
sources, this is essentially what what Russia would like because once people begin to leave the big cities, then uh
well, there's many benefits. one would be then the e economy wouldn't work as usual. The military potential declines,
but also if Russia wants to seize Kiev, it's much easier to do if you don't have
millions of people there who could uh uh well essentially end up as human shields
or or or be killed because this is not something well nobody wants to see mass
casualties. So h how do you how how do you assess this uh these efforts by
Russia to to step up because many it it's been fair to predict this for some time that is once Ukraine is um starting
to fall apart on the front lines they would also simultaneously step up pressure in other areas that is to knock
out the economy go after the political leadership perhaps again just a theory so far but do you see do you see this
being the endgame of the Russians as opposed to trying to take out the political leadership when uh the
Ukrainian army is standing strong because then they can simply be replaced. Are they just tearing it down
and then going after everything at the same time? Sorry, a lot of questions there.
We're on the same wavelength. Uh just before you opened the statement about
Titko, it's exactly what I was about to say. It um it was dramatic. Uh and what
was dramatic about is precise precisely why they should leave because for uh in
a city like K with a lot of high-rise buildings they have no water they have
no electricity. Uh people are like uh will want to be uh model about this say
oh is in the middle of winter they're cutting up. Well, wait a minute. In the middle of summer, it isn't too too great if you have you live on the 20th floor
of an apartment building and there and there's no electricity, you can't get there. So, uh the point is they're
making the city uninhabitable, which is their intention. Uh they would as to are
they want do they want to save lives by that uh to to clear out people for an
attack, a leveling attack? I don't think so. uh what Russians have been saying for some time, this goes back uh more
than a year, uh when they were speaking about uh re about revenge uh for the
attacks on uh for on the neighboring oblasts to the east of Kharkov which
were being uh fed from Kharkov uh that Russia should level Kharkov to the
ground. Um, and you do this by giving notification three days in advance. Everybody clear out because we're going
to destroy it. So, I think going back to their their most um
destructive dreams, uh, Russian patriots were had no intention of killing
millions of people. Uh, and their intention was to give a warning. And as
we see, I think it's quite quite likely that that Putin gave a warning to Silinski before firing the Arashnik
Arashnik and and uh I'd say plural because it's not clear if it was one or several. Um and the other massive
attacks that took place yesterday. Uh they they can give this warning because they're confident there's nothing can
stop their their missiles, cruise or or ballistic missiles, hypersonic in
particular. Um, so I don't I think that they would be very happy to send another
10 million Ukrainians running to Germany uh to make the system of relief so
untenable in in central Europe that they would have to go to the negotiated table with
Russia. I think that certainly is in their plans. Uh leveling cities for the
sake of leveling cities I don't think is their intent but to frighten people and drive them out of the country. Yes, I
think so. It destroys the economy and it destroys Europe. Europe has no room for
these for another 10 million Ukrainians. Um uh and it would simply break the um
uh the social services and the medical services to have all of these countless
Ukrainians showing up at our doors. Um so yes, the Russians are getting very
destructive. uh they're they've moved into the China shop and they're throwing everything to the ground. uh it's been a long time
coming and uh it's just surprising that I think what you and I have discussed deterrence I think we are witnessing now
the revival of Russian deterrence because the the the war with all was there or was in doubt and really
deserved to be in doubt was was a will there to use the wherewithal and what what we are seeing now in in these
several actions both the arrnic is confirmed that it happened the seizure
of the ships. We wait to see whether it's it's as described, but the Russians
are clearly showing that they have the will to take up to take on the United States and the West.
Well, I've been saying this for months that we are now seeing the end of the war and just as you see in other wars,
um the worst devastation happens towards
the final stage. You saw this with the Germans in World War II as well. This is when the vast majority of the military
casualties are inflicted. It's as the army falls apart. This is also when the civilians becomes more exposed as well.
Uh and this is when people start fleeing their homes. I mean, it's it's very so
incredibly predictable that a massive tragedy is about to play out if we don't
start to negotiate in good faith with the Russians. And that means do not
demand to like they did in Paris now that you're going to send troops after the war and set up uh military
facilities. I mean, this is why the Russians invaded to prevent NATO from entrenching itself in Ukraine. And
somehow in defeat our demands is that NATO should entrench itself in Ukraine.
It just it doesn't make any sense. And you know I made this point for a long time that this horror would start to
play out soon. And you know I was always told you know this is Russian propaganda. Ukraine is winning. But
surely our political leaders as you know despite being incompetent and immoral they must nonetheless see what is about
to play out because you know for all this idea of standing with Ukraine surely there must be at
below all the efforts to weaponize all this fake empathy there must be some
recognition that at least for their own self-interest that millions of Ukrainians fleeing into Europe at the
time we would like to start to send them back that this is it not in their interest is not in our interest either
or that is in Europe's interest. I mean it it doesn't none of this makes any sense to me. I I was uh yeah well just
taking me to my last question though. Uh if there is an efforts to end this war
uh it doesn't look like we're ending it because um let's be honest it's not as if the European countries is going to
make peace with Russia and okay we're not going to expand NATO. We're going to come to some agreement with a common
European security architecture. Instead, it seems like we're going to go into a different phase. I'm not sure we're
going to support some guerilla tactics or what it is that they might do. But do
you see an end to this war or is it or if if we just want to create a new phase, what would this actually look
like? Well, again, the dividers between what may happen is likely happen and what I
would like to happen those are different things which are very different things.
I I think what's most likely to happen will be frozen conflict but not a frozen conflict as it was described going back
a year and a half or two years by the west that it would be like Korea that that uh yes and then they would have
their uh western uh military installations to defend uh Ukraine and
so forth. It'll be a different type of of
frozen conflict, very specific one uh in which Russia takes all of Ukrainian
territory uh east of the neighbor. Uh it takes Odessa, it leaves Ukraine
landlocked. uh and it um ensures that by giving
warning to one and all that it will destroy any uh military infrastructure,
military personnel from the west that try to come in and and support Ukraine
that Ukraine must be uh free of any foreign military presence or or they
would use a rashik song. So I think under those circumstances with a run for Ukraine that is economically very
disadvantaged has lost essentially its manufacturing industry and a fairly good
chunk of his black earth because black earth is not just west of Ukraine I think camper it's also partly in the and
other oblasts um of of no um this very rather poor and uh and
degraded um Ukraine will be left to itself. It will not be
admitted to NATO to to European Union. It's not a NATO is obvious, but not to
the European Union despite all of the promises of of underland because it will
simply be too poor and too requiring hundreds of billions of euros of investment for the 27 nations to agree
to it. Nobody has the money for that or wants to have the money for it since they're all too busy remilitarizing.
Therefore, it will be a very sad country what's left of Ukraine after this is over.
Yeah. Well, well, this adds to the to the lack of logic though that that if you know that they will lose a lot of
territories, then this is when you end it. I mean in 2019 as you know the brand
corporation had this report on how to extend over well extend Russia that is
and it it identified you know pretty much every country along the Russian border we should be destabilized and
this is the think tank of the intelligence agencies but the main logic was you know we should send weapons to
Ukraine and threaten NATO expansion because this would enh uh increase Russia's commitment into Donbas. In this
way, we can slowly bleed the Russians at least of the resources. But still this report in the essentially presenting the
argument why it could be, you know, the counterargument is said, well, if it breaks into a fullscale war and the
Russians begin to take strategic territory, then this war is no longer benefiting us. So translated into the
last four years of proxy war for NATO, it seems it would be ideal to just have the Russians and Ukrainians fight each
other. If this front lines are stable and they just kill each other in huge numbers and the Russians bleed
resources, that would be a good war. But once the Russians begin to win, the
casualties overwhelmingly goes into disfavor of the Ukrainians and they begin to lose territory. Then for NATO,
it's a bad war. But so still for the life of me I can understand why we're still doing this. I mean this is the
point in time you you you count your losses and uh put an end to it but uh
there doesn't seem to be any appetite at all. But putting an end to it would mean
that those who have invested all of their political capital in this continuation would be forced out of
office. And I think there's a big contradiction between the n the national interest and the personal interest of
the of the leadership in at least 25 out of 27 of the member states of the
European Union. Um so they are they're in it for the same reason that Netanyahu
is continuing the war because the moment he stops continuing the war uh he'll be going to prison. the same reason why
Zedenski is continuing the war regardless of the massive loss of life
of his of his um his men and that is as soon as he stops the war there'll be an
election he'll be voted out of office or simply be murdered. Um so we uh these
are regrettably contra uh the deep corruption in these societies involved
where there is uh a a contradiction between the personal interests of
leaders and the national interests of the people who put them in power.
That's never a good thing. Well, not when you get rational policies at least. So well thank you very much for taking
the time. These are crazy times indeed. Uh again, if any of this would have
happened during the Cold War, it would have been something that would have dominated the pages of a of the history
books. But uh it seems to become almost daily occurrence, this kind of uh reckless escalation. So,
thank you and uh have a great weekend. You
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