MLI Munk
Senior Fellow Shuvaloy Majumdar maps out six key foreign policy issues Canada
will need to focus on after the election of Donald Trump as president.
By
Shuvaloy Majumdar, Nov. 14, 2016
http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/what-donald-trump-means-for-canadian-foreign-policy-shuvaloy-majumdar-in-the-huffington-post/
Across
the world a cacophony of condescension on one side, and disaffected rage on the
other, has precipitated a global political realignment. Upon the embers of the
American presidential race, President-elect Donald J. Trump has emerged
victorious.
On paper,
Republicans control the Congress, Senate and White House, Republican governors
command a majority of state capitals, and Republicans are strong at local
levels. This should not be confused for a sense of coherence, as the American
conservative movement is experiencing deep ideological fissures on fundamental
questions of openness to the world versus isolation.
The
pressures on Canadian interests abroad will be significant, so long as the
United States remains the guarantor of Canadian national security and the major
partner in economic prosperity. So what does the US election mean for Canada in
the world?
The
election in the United States represents a fundamental shift in how the world's
most powerful nation will act towards major trade agreements, the world's
security architecture and the American approach to the key challenges of our
times.
Six major
foreign policy issues following the inauguration of President Trump will shape
this new relationship between two very different governments.
The Canada-US economic relationship
With the
White House and Congress finding common ground on energy prosperity, it is
likely the Keystone XL pipeline will be approved. North America is already
densely interwoven with environmentally sound pipeline infrastructure, and a
larger continental energy deal may finally be at hand. This will be of
significant benefit to all aspects of the Canadian economy, and provide an
opportunity for positive engagement with the new administration.
Beyond
pipelines and continental energy security, key debates loom on threats to NAFTA
made during the US campaign. The President-elect has been highly disciplined
about discussing NAFTA only in the context of trade imbalance and illegal
immigration pressures stemming from Mexico. It stands to reason his lament has
little to do with Canadian trade, presumably an area the New York developer had
experience with in his commercial undertakings.
However, trade negotiations
with the United States are never pro forma and Canada will need to be prepared
for intense bargaining to protect our own economic interests. This will include
a decision point on whether to fold in an agreement on softwood lumber, or
continue to negotiate that issue outside of NAFTA.
Canada
will also need to ascertain whether an update is needed to reclassify labour
for work visas, reflecting the modern global economy. The current
classifications better describe professions of the 1980s (lawyer, accountant)
than today’s dynamic workforce. Modernizing and co-ordinating the system would
be a major benefit for commercial partnerships on both sides of the border.
NATO and collective defence
The
President-elect has made pointed comments about certain allies not sharing the
military burden, both with regard to NATO and the Asian security architecture
with Japan and South Korea. While less involved with hard security assets in
the Pacific, Canada has had a significant stake in the transatlantic security
architecture between Europe and North America.
NATO has indeed had an imbalance
in its members contributing the agreed to target of 2% of GDP in national
defence spending. But measuring commitments to spending levels alone says
little about a nation’s commitment to global security. Canadian contributions
to the alliance have been appropriately focussed on dealing with threats rather
than feeding the defence bureaucracy.
With NATO, Canada has made a difference
in the European east including Ukraine, taken on the hardest fighting in
Afghanistan, and by contributing to NATO's essential Centres of Excellence on
Cyber Security, Energy Security and Strategic Communications.
In
dealing with the new administration, Canada can credibly and accurately define
what sharing the burden actually involves, measuring sacrifice and impact
alongside treasure and materiel.
More can
and should be spent prudently on Canada's defence apparatus. But unlike other
NATO partners, Canadian per capita contributions in blood and risk far exceed
those of other Allies. In dealing with the new administration, Canada can
credibly and accurately define what sharing the burden actually involves,
measuring sacrifice and impact alongside treasure and materiel.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership and China's rise
The
President-elect has decried the TPP as the worst conceivable deal for the American
interest, offering scant specifics on what a successful deal could look like.
The definitive positions he has taken on trade have already created a spirit
for compromise by America's traditional partners, including Ottawa, which has
proactively offered to renegotiate NAFTA.
Trump's rhetoric has shifted the
goalposts for negotiations closer to American interests, including at the TPP
table. It is true to his style of negotiation to exaggerate his demands, secure
enough compromise, then conclude a deal and claim victory for his domestic
audiences.
Canadian
negotiators should aim to pursue the paths of a renegotiated TPP and bilateral
agreements concurrently and aggressively, as long as this uncertainty remains.
The US
Congress has already postponed its TPP deliberations during this lame-duck
session until after inauguration. Should, somehow, another round of TPP
negotiations commence, Canada has vital interests at stake in accessing key
high-growth markets in the Asia Pacific and the Americas. The rules which will
define trade spanning three continents (and Australia) are essential in setting
the standards for how a rising China would economically engage the vast
opportunities of the Pacific.
There is an opportunity to constrain its
belligerent tendencies and its outlook on trade, which seeks advantage for its
state-owned enterprises. These standards are also essential in providing an
aspirational roadmap for potential partners to the TPP such as India and
Taiwan, once domestic reforms make them viable partners.
Should
the President-elect kill the deal, Canada will need to make a separate
approach, using the TPP framework, to all of the markets involved in the TPP,
to secure individual, bilateral deals.
Canadian negotiators should aim to
pursue the paths of a renegotiated TPP and bilateral agreements concurrently
and aggressively, as long as this uncertainty remains.
Engaging Russia: Ukraine, Syria and beyond
Both
Prime Minister Trudeau and President-elect Trump share a spirit for a changed
engagement with Moscow. This comes amidst two of the defining geopolitical
issues of our times in which Russia's hand has undermined American power:
Ukraine and Syria.
The
President-elect removed essential support for Ukraine from his presidential
platform, even while Congressional Republicans ran on a promise to ensure
Ukrainian sovereignty. Russian hacking and propaganda altered the American
narrative in the President-elect's favour. The President-elect himself had a
campaign manager for a time whose dubious ties to Russia through the Kremlin's
proxies in Ukraine continue to cast a disturbing shadow over the imminent
occupant of the White House.
In Syria,
beyond a campaign that leveraged the ugliest impulses of American voters, the
larger concern is over a basic, shared understanding of who the enemy is. Is it
ISIS? Is it also Assad and his guarantors in Tehran and Moscow? The
President-elect has been deafeningly silent on his plan, beyond
"destroying ISIS," while offering platitudes regarding Vladimir
Putin's exploitation of American weakness in the ongoing conflict.
In the
larger geopolitical context, Canada will need to define the limits of its
engagement with Moscow, with an understanding of the risks that come with the
potential the government sees for commercial progress in relations with Russia.
In
Ukraine, Canada must show resolve in expanding sanctions against Russian actors
responsible for the crisis, fortifying Ukrainian defence forces and civil
society, and continuing the political isolation of the Kremlin's cronies. This
would include taking on the fighters Russia is sponsoring to create conflict in
the Ukrainian Donbas by listing them as terror entities.
In Syria,
Canada must not fall into the sectarian trap of solely targeting ISIS while
ignoring Iran-supported Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
which presumes a de facto preference on the ground for Iranian-backed Shia
sectarian terror over Sunni sectarian terror.
As the
President-elect gives form to the policy he intends to pursue with Moscow in
the midst of these conflicts, Canada's stake in both conflicts must be informed
by those who share our values, by the aspiration to restore international
order, and by clear interests rather than taking a pose as “honest
intermediator” that risks moral equivalence or even pandering to evil.
Iran
Iran has
had sanctions lifted on assets worth approximately $150 billion, while parading
new missiles and Syria-hardened IRGC soldiers in Tehran, and while continuing
to call for the destruction of Israel. It sponsors terror across Iraq, Syria
and beyond, with its clients murdering 10 to 12 times as many in Syria as ISIS
has. Iran recently, for the second time this year, surpassed the agreed-to
threshold for stockpiling heavy water, a material used as a moderator in
nuclear reactors. It continues to pursue advanced missile technology -
specifically designed to deliver a nuclear payload.
The
president-elect has promised tougher consequences on Iran for failing to live
up to its own commitments in the nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama,
including throwing the deal to the wind, along with the UN Resolution that
acknowledges it.
Iran's
atrocious human rights record continues to outpace every other country in the
region, while its rival Saudi Arabia is acknowledging the systemic challenges
of its economic state and embarks upon a vast reform agenda.
Even as
the gap between Iran’s words and deeds widen on its broader nuclear program, on
its industrial-scale sponsorship of terrorism, and its worsening human rights
record, Ottawa is preparing to normalize relations with Tehran, swept up in the
spirit of last year’s nuclear negotiations. Iran has not behaved as if it
desires to rejoin the international community as a constructive actor, rather
the opposite. It has taken spirited advantage of a weakened international
system.
So long
as there are two very different understandings of the nature and aspirations of
the Iranian regime, tensions will mount between Canadian and American
diplomacy. If Ottawa intends to stand with Jerusalem, as it claims it will,
normalizing a relationship with Iran at the expense of Israeli security will
squarely place it against two close allies - Israel and the United States.
Climate change and energy poverty
While
Canada may benefit substantially from the Trump administration’s energy policy,
there is a wide gulf on climate change policy, and there is now a major
challenge to the Trudeau government’s climate agenda. The global carbon regime
promoted by Trudeau is anathema to the President-elect, who has prioritized
meaningful economic benefits for the vastly diminished American middle class.
These Trump voters are deeply disaffected and disappointed with grand global
ventures that deliver little locally.
The
debate about how the world addresses climate change is fundamentally about
whether the solution can be centrally planned and enforced. Many among the
environmental lobby are willing to risk subjugating energy impoverished countries,
holding them to the unethical standard of industrializing through expensive and
experimental green technologies. These nations would need to purchase this
technology from the West, from those who polluted and industrialized at their
expense, awakening old resentments of colonialization.
Those on
the other side of the debate envision a path to resolving climate challenges
that is local, and driven by innovators making bold investments, betting on
technological innovation.
The developing world has already leapfrogged
telephone cables for cell phone towers. They stand to do the same in other
parts of their industrial development, through more efficient distribution of
power using artificial intelligence and meta data, through unlocking the vast
potential of everything from power sources to recycling, and through the
smarter planning of emerging cities in high growth regions of the world.
The
global carbon regime promoted by Trudeau is anathema to the President-elect,
who has prioritized meaningful economic benefits for the vastly diminished
American middle class.
If Ottawa
is to preserve and expand Canada's economic strength relative to the rest of
the world, it will need to make the economic decisions around climate change,
not the climate decisions around economic change.
Trudeau
intends to lead the world by example on climate change. Punitive carbon taxes
will put Canada at a serious disadvantage compared to the US under Trump and
hit a vital yet hurting sector of the Canadian economy, oil and gas. And they
put at risk a fragile Canadian middle class, which ranked as the strongest in
the world in the post-2008 Great Recession. Undermining the middle class
by engaging in global schemes will put at risk the great economic exception
that Canada is in the world today.
Green
schemes and wealth redistributionists in Europe have created an eco-elite and a
growing gap between rich and poor. Inequality in the United States has seen the
isolation of two sides, networked within their own worlds, speaking only among
themselves rather than to each other.
National
governments have failed to invest in economic adaptation for the most
vulnerable to job losses as a result of technological innovation and
globalization. The domestic and foreign policy decisions on climate change that
Ottawa will need to make following the inauguration of President Trump are
central to the wider conversation about the path to global prosperity, and
Canada's role in it.
Moving forward
The
election in the United States represents a fundamental shift in how the world's
most powerful nation will act towards major trade agreements, the world's
security architecture and the American approach to the key challenges of our
times. The long term consequences of how all this unfolds are vast and cannot
be understated.
Green
schemes and wealth redistributionists in Europe have created an eco-elite and a
growing gap between rich and poor.
Canada
will need to be more agile than ever if it is to be a strategic partner that
informs these choices, and will require statesmanship that has a clear vision
of where our country will stand in the world once the limits of American power
are finally defined.
Each of
these six areas is about making decisions whose effects will be understood in a
generation, not necessarily in the next few years. The question isn't about
what the world will look like in 2020, it's about Canada actively defining the
agenda that shapes the international order in 2050.
Shuvaloy
Majumdar led democracy assistance initiatives in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006
to 2010, and recently served as policy director to successive Canadian foreign
ministers in the Harper Government. He is a Munk Senior Fellow at the
Macdonald-Laurier Institute. @shuvmajumdar
November
14, 2016 at 8:19 pm
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