see also N A T O s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzeGALl3kH4
NATO is preparing to transport 800,000 soldiers and 200,000 armored vehicles to the border with Russia in the event of full-scale war the publication dares Spiegel just reported this after gaining access to secret military documents but moving that many troops would be a massive undertaking unlike anything we've seen in recent history how does NATO plan to achieve that goal what challenges are there to deploying that many soldiers across the world and what are some of the strengths and weaknesses of a collective defense Alliance if you want peace prepare for war key to understanding NATO's plan are five new Transportation routes each one centered around a different port where Transportation ships would be filled with troops and vehicles and over the past year or two there have been profound changes in NATO we have new war plans for the first time in 35 years we have new force and Readiness models they make 700% more European troops available to me as the Supreme Allied Commander than just a couple of years ago but before you start digging a fallout shelter in your backyard keep in mind that every major power including Russia North Korea Iran and China have contingency plans just like this one actually I'm not sure if that makes me feel better or worse the stated reason for the creation of these New Movement corridors is because Russia's long range missiles could destroy ports Bridges or bases looking at this map we can see all of Europe is within range of many different types of Russian ballistic missiles this would severely limit Transportation options and could make mobilizing troops under the current plan unsustainable redundancy is very important that's why my squad leader nicknamed me redundant the northernmost new Avenue would start by Landing American troops in Norway for a cold opening to the war for the first time in 2024 the US Army dropped off 200 armored vehicles and 300 Supply containers here at the Port of narvi 1, 1600 US Army soldiers from the 10th Mountain division traveled over 880 km by Rail and roadway to prove that this option was even viable the route pushes through Sweden and Finland Norway is what's known as a Transit country for NATO strategy it's like in Civilization 5 where you tell your nation that your troops are just passing through and then they have to approve it this option was never on the table before because those countries just joined NATO in 2024 so a new route has now been on locked but there are limitations in this direction a 13-hour Convoy drive to the border with Russia is a long way to go this long distance as well as the limited amount of available Port space might limit the amount of heavy armor deployed through here the officer who doesn't know his Communications and Supply as well as his tactics is totally useless take a look at this port of brah Haven in Germany US general Ben hajes said bremhaven and Hamburg are actually the most important SE ports on which the alliance Depends for military equipment it's a massive 880,000 s m center that can offload 370 pieces of armored vehicles from a transport ship in 14 hours so it can handle an entire armored Brigade in a day then there are railroads located right on the port that send equipment straight to the eastern border of Poland this is key because otherwise that's a 12200 km drive if you tried to Convoy tanks that way you'd have to replace tracks eat up enormous amounts of fuel and run down your equipment you'd be cooked before you even got to the fight the secret documents obtained by Dar spegel reveal that the A2 Highway would play a major role in the mobilization the A2 Highway is the Auto Bond to Armageddon if this ever actually happened it would be the real Highway to Hell it runs in two lanes in each Direction with a shoulder for over 1,000 km through Germany Poland from east to west it's the fastest shortest east to west route but one of the vulnerabilities of the A2 Highway is it has several bridges that would be key targets for Russian missile attacks or sabotage Moscow has already been linked to arson attacks throughout Europe that's why NATO would deploy additional temporary Bridges Poland has been upgrading the strength of their Bridges quietly along this A2 route partly so that they can carry the increased weight of the M1 Abrams tanks that can weigh around 70 tons what makes this whole story worthy of looking at is because both Ides are no longer just putting pen to paper on these contingency plans they're putting actual brick to mortar and physically building out the infrastructure to support a full-scale war to give you an idea of just how many assets need to be moved the NATO security Alliance is made up of 32 different countries and a military strength of 3.3 million active duty soldiers between them they operate 22,300 aircraft 2,250 naval ships and over 870,000 ground combat vehicles including 11,300 main battle tanks but all of those assets are only useful if you can effectively transport them to various locations that they would be needed on the Eastern flank welcome to my barely credible defense briefing on America's part of the plan please take a seat thank you very much first slide deploying large conventional forces is ring on America's strategic rail Corridor Network as seen here in the red lines it consists of 35,000 Mi of freight track that are priority for National Defense they connect to 193 military bases across the country with sea ports on the east and west coast privately owned trained companies like Union Pacific give the Department of Defense Priority Access in emergency situations for deployment to the European theater there are two main sea ports that are used for embarcation one at Bowmont Texas and the other at Charleston South Carolina this whole process would take about 3 weeks for a heavy armored Brigade combat team from A to Z once at the Port the Navy Sea lift takes over a a privately owned company called American roll on rolloff is one of the only ones who uses a special kind of massive carrier to transport across the Atlantic the roro ship called endurance can carry 1,333 different pieces of heavy armored equipment which is basically an entire armored Brigade combat team in one single LIF from what I can tell they have five of those massive civilian ships dedicated to the European Theater which means the US can surge about roughly five brigades of about 6,500 armored pieces for 20,000 soldiers within 3 to 6 months listen to us General OS commander of the transportation command explain how important this is uh we cannot uh do our job every day without our strong commercial Partnerships in fact uh 90% of our passengers flow through commercial operations and day-to-day 97% of our sustainment goes through commercial sea lift and provides us an asymmetric Advantage Amer am roll on rolloff compan is actually owned by a Norwegian company Warfare today requires more than investment in defense budget it requires the cooperation in a defense Alliance of each nation's civilian assets like ships and rail networks worth billions of dollars defense alliances are like my old squad leader used to say I know my calculus it says you plus me equals US the top vulnerability concern I have with them is through cyber uh frankly we have heard even from the CIA director the PRC has infiltrated some of the logistics networks there are new threats to these supply lines especially with cyber warfare which could these ports but the journey has only started getting to European Shores is where the threat starts to get even more threater Clearly Logistics is the hard part of fighting a war to speed up the process NATO planners have struck new agreements between countries this has eliminated the majority of the red tape that comes with transporting armored vehicles across Nations what required mountains of paperwork and international certifications in the past today basically requires a handshake and some pouches of Zen during these 3 to 6 months of time that you need to build up you need places to house resupply and feed thousands of soldiers who are convoying through Germany hostiles aren't going to cut it so the plan calls for every 500 M there would need to be a rest stop for troops kind of like a bies except run by like halberton because God help me you don't want your military personnel using the same rest stops as civilians the line to get gasoline and a brw snitchel would be 3 hours long the report also indicates German police would need new powers to guard the influx of potential Russian prisoners of War so they're thinking of every possible scenario ahead of time the West can't just dust off old battle plant from the 1980s and slap a new label on it while the geography of the folded Gap in the Hoff Corridor haven't changed how they would be used and defended has changed dramatically keep in mind the last major mobilization plan for NATO was from the 1980s it was built to fight the Soviet Union on the border of West Germany the potential front has moved 800 km to the east since then a lot of people might not know this but before the collapse of the Soviet Union construction of highways in Poland was very limited and slow this animation shows us The Finnish polish highways in green starting from 1970 so you can see that it wasn't until 2013 that the A2 Motorway the east to west route was largely finished making this kind of Journey more possible how are you supposed to fight a war if there isn't even a road that gets there if we were really interested in peace we'd stop inventing roads the line between disorder and Order lies in logistics I think it's important that we talk for a second about these secret military documents obtained by Dar spel I think it's likely that these were purposefully leaked by NATO officials as a way of signaling to Russia that they're taking the possibility of War seriously Russia probably leaked nuclear war plans in February of 2024 for this exact same reason I say this because unnamed Western officials had already spoken to the telegraph about this same NATO deployment plan back in June 2024 then on July 17th about a week after the reports first dropped Newsweek finally got verbal confirmation from a spokesperson at the German defense Ministry that yes they are working on a contingency plan like this German defense officials confirmed that it's part of op plan deu or operational plan Germany to this point a NATO command spokesperson said to Newsweek about the new plan the ability to quickly relocate large NATO troop contingents to the alliance Eastern flank in the event of a deterioration in the security situation is the central pillar of conventional deterrence your adversary isn't deterred if they don't believe you could actually support a war against them honestly I'd be kind of worried about what all the Russian Chinese and American Military Officers were doing in their idle time if they weren't coming up with contingency plans like this my point is if any of these details were really meant to be kept secret they wouldn't be openly confirmed and leaked for months it's important that we keep in mind when watching War hype videos or reading articles about this topic that NATO's official stance is that they want to avoid war with Russia my job is to deter both in my NATO role and in my us role my primary job is to deter aggression and to avert a war not not not to fight one even us intelligence reports believe that Russia is not seeking direct military action with NATO as of now I don't view contingency plans from Russia or the United States as suggesting that this will happen tomorrow or that either side wants War although that is certainly possible personally I view them as an attempt to show your adversary that you're prepared for war in order to prevent it however it's crucial to consider counterpoints the NATO strategy critics argue that large-scale military preparations like this one could escalate tensions unnecessarily and and provoke a security dilemma Russian officials have condemned NATO's buildup as an aggressive and violation of previous agreements aimed at reducing military presence near their borders NATO's outlined that they view Russia's actions in Ukraine as the root cause of escalation in the region one of the clearest signs of this plan in action I think comes from looking at the changes to the freight Network in the region the freight train network from the Netherlands through Germany to Poland is a very important route it starts at the Port of lenen this is where American shipments of weapons and armored vehicles have already been staged and then transferred throughout Europe including equipment that's sent to Ukraine but I've observed a new development along this line This official US Government website publicly announced a $225 million investment in a new section of Railway here the US government's looking for construction firms to partner with and rebuild the railway that extends from Poland to a military Airfield near laviv in Ukraine the official reason for this is to help Ukraine's economy export agricultural products unofficially though open- Source analysts believe that it's a way to rapidly expand transfer of weapons into Ukraine this was first brought to my attention by our open source intelligence salutes on our Discord server so much appreciation to the spare parts Army hard at work there the US agency for International Development is now redeveloping a 75 km section between laviv and mosa and its Freight station there this will connect Ukraine to Europe with a new standard rail for the first time according to the project the entire section will be equipped with the European standard rail gauge what that means is that it will connect Ukraine directly to Poland by Rail and the rest of Europe via one continuous standard rail track for the first time ever this line connects with zesu in Poland which is about 100 km away we already know that this city is where the majority of NATO military weapons Aid is sent by rail before it's trucked into UK Ukraine soon they'll be able to travel straight by rail greatly Expedia the process my logisticians are a humorless lot they know if my campaign fails they're the first ones I will slay throughout these routes are pre-positioned Warehouse stocks called aps2 this includes armored vehicles and weapons located in Belgium Netherlands Germany and Poland aps2 cuts down drastically on the amount of time required to deploy equipment by ships to that point NATO currently has 11,600 forward deploy soldiers in Poland led by US forces in addition to Poland's own forces of course you can't just draw big arrows on a map and call it a day any joint movement Corridor has to be carefully considered both from a military standpoint and a Civic one shuffling foreign troops back and forth across multiple countries isn't as simple as a drive from point A to point B there are numerous factors that hinder a country's military from getting to the front lines including things like weight limitations on Bridges another planned Avenue would run from from ports in Italy to Slovenia Croatia and Hungary there are plans to fly into turkey and then move from there as well I remember when my Battalion was mobilized to Lafia our Strikers armored vehicles were offloaded from ships at ports Movement by sea like this is way less maintenance intensive than flying armor in by air we are exercising sea lift capacity which is uh uh shallow draft sea lift uh running uh essentially a network below the network of airplanes because it will fully consume our airlift Fleet if we fly everything which is much less efficient so why are there so many different Avenues of approach in the past everyone was Consolidated at as few major bases as possible these giant fobs or forward operating bases but this new way of spreading out is because of a new emerging military doctrine that calls for widely dispersed operations the new plan calls for decentralized operations by small units located far away from large permanent bases that are vulnerable to missile strike we've already seen how efficient widely dispersed tactics can be just look at how the houthis have continued their missile strikes in the Red Sea by spreading out and largely avoiding punishing American air strikes so NATO is spending $2.7 billion on expanding the Romanian 57th Air Base to become its most important base near Ukraine it'll become the largest NATO base in Europe with a perimeter more than 30 square km the base will have additional runways for more fighter jets and c17 strategic airlift to fly troops and Equipment into the 57th Air Base in Romania is expanding to house 10,000 NATO Personnel amateurs talk about tactics but professionals study Logistics NATO is not only changing how they physically move troops to the front they're also adjusting how they invest in Collective defense there are some strengths and weaknesses to this approach each country is being asked to focus on one area of defense the military has a phrase that captures this Theory I think it's fight smart not hard my old squad leader used to say that to me all the time in theory the way it works is that the United Kingdom France they focus their investment on the Navy Air Force and nuclear weapons meanwhile Poland focuses on investing in the Army stockpiling of main battle tanks and Germany's main role is as an industrial base where they manufacture artillery and tank Munitions combined NATO has ramped up artillery shell production to 2 million shells per year today and they're on track to reach 3 million shells by 2025 the smaller Baltic states are focused on cyber security contributions underpinning all security contributions underpinning all of this is the United States with its roughly 4,000 main battle tanks including those in storage and 45,000 armored vehicles stockpiled in reserve that's a 10,000 mile high oversimplification of NATO's evolving Collective defense strategy after the collapse of the Soviet Union and during the war on terror NATO countries moved away from a collective defense and they focused more on creating like a self-sustain military that didn't rely on an alliance to operate Collective defense wasn't really strongly Revisited as a concept until 2012 at the NATO Chicago Summit when former prime minister of the Czech Republic said that a greater emphasis must be put on the sharing of resources country to Country cooperation and the creation of joint projects based on specific priorities 2 years later after Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014 NATO launched their framework Nations concept at the whale Summit this is when the alliance started to ask countries to focus on one area because the purpose of mutual defense is to achieve maximum efficiency of armed forces with the minimum necessary expenditures looking at any one single NATO member and its capabilities to go to war kind of misses the whole point of being part of a collective defense Canada and the UK would not be fighting a major war today without the support of the rest of the alliance however critics highlight several vulnerabilities in NATO's approach Collective defense relies heavily on Mutual trust and resource sharing among member nations if this trust were to falter the strategy could be compromised one of the best ways to see this framework nation's Concept in action is to look at the NATO response force that was established in 2006 it's gone from 13,000 Personnel to 40,000 personnel and now it's just announced that it will be grown to 300 ,000 strong force in 2024 it was rebranded as the Allied reaction force to illustrate its change in mindset to Collective defense NATO's Secretary General stoltenberg explained this plan as part of their updated strategy so it's a three tier force model tier one has 100,000 troops ready to deploy within 10 days tier two would have 200,000 troops ready within 30 days and tier three would have 500,000 troops ready for combat within 180 days when we look at the overarching structure of NATO it's not just a collection of separate independent armies that all decided to fight on the same side today each country tries to specialize in one or two areas this way the sum of the parts is supposed to be greater than the whole for example if you ran a business where you produced cars you wouldn't want all of your workers just making steering wheels even though those are an important part of the car in Collective defense the same is true you don't want every country focusing on on building tanks but there's a major vulnerability to Collective defense if every nation is specialized this accepts more risk if the entire Alliance doesn't stick together one of the major points of contention in the alliance is the defense burden how much should each member State contribute and what happens if they don't reach the minimum amount in 2024 at least 20 nations are expected to meet the 2% of GDP defense spending compared to only three who met it in 2014 in 2024 that was the first year that the NATO's combined allies in Europe reached their goal of 2% of combined GDP on defense spending 23 out of 32 members now meet that current goal but Nations have to trust their allies to come to their defense in the event of war in the unlikely scenario that the United States or a major other country were to pull out of the NATO alliance then specializing your forces just became a major liability instead of a strength it's like one of those corporate trustfall exercises but the stakes are a little higher alliances have an inherent vulnerability and that if each member isn't on the same page it weakens their response but there are no defense strategies that are without any risk and limitation and this brings up another unique challenge to Collective defense there are some shared assets that are in demand like air defense and strategic airlift capabilities they're in short supply including assets like early warning radar aircraft NATO command needs to determine who gets priority and who does not a reality of collective defense is that sometimes Other Nations security might be judged as a priority over your own reports are now coming out that NATO has enough air defense equipment to protect 5% of its airspace on its eastern flank how accurate that number is and exactly how it's calculated is Up For Debate and doesn't include the role that other aircraft play in controlling airspace but it reveals how Aerospace control is a major issue facing NATO and Collective defense can strain the the limits of human trust because you might be sending your country's air defense to protect a more important region that's not your own in an attempt to mitigate these risks according to Nato leadership they focused on preventing war in first place the main move made here is that since 2015 NATO has forward deployed four International battle groups made up of a collection of different countries working in cooperation the the first thing we've done is we've uh responded to the Russian aggression by bull during our presence along with NATO's presence on on the Eastern flank we did that over the last two years since then that number has increased to eight they're spread out across Bulgaria Estonia Hungary Poland laia Lithuania Romania and Slovakia the theory according to Nato is that the presence of these troops will prevent a full-scale war NATO's evolving Logistics plan shows us the Monumental collaborative effort required to bolster Collective defense challenges remain in balancing trust and res resource allocation but as NATO builds these new Pathways My Hope Is that they will lead to peace instead of War
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