The global financial system is undergoing a massive transformation. In a historic shift, the Chinese yuan has surpassed the US dollar in global payments by 2.5%. This milestone highlights China’s strategic efforts, supported by its BRICS allies, to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Countries like Russia and India are leading this de-dollarization, with the yuan becoming a preferred currency for trade and financial transactions. The future of international finance could be shaped by China's growing economic influence, challenging decades of dollar dominance.
the world but is that about to change the Global Financial landscape has just witnessed a seismic shift the Chinese Yuan has officially outpaced the US dollar in Global Payments by 2.5% this development marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing transformation of the international monetary system challenging long-held assumptions about currency dominance former president Donald Trump says the US dollar is under attack and we will keep the US dollar as the world's Reserve currency and is currently under major Siege many countries are leaving the dollar since the spring Trump has been expressing concern over the idea that other countries may want to move away from the dollar and he's announced plans to try to keep that from happening this is from a rally he held in Wisconsin this month they not going to leave the dollar with me I'll say you leave the dollar you're not doings business with the United States cuz we're going to put 100% tariff on your goods sir we would like very much to get back to the dollar immediately thank you very much it's so easy this unprecedented change is largely attributed to the Strategic maneuvers of China and its allies particularly within the brics block the founding members of brics Brazil Russia India China and South Africa have been steadily increasing their use of the Chinese Yuan for cross crossborder trade effectively reducing their dependence on the US dollar the rise of the Yuan and international trade is not a mere coincidence but the result of careful planning and execution by China and its Partners China and Russia two of the most influential bricks members have joined forces to make Yuan isation a reality their Master strategy aims to replace the Dollar by providing the world with a living example of how the Yuan can be used for all kinds of trade transactions and one important point the sanctions imposed on Russia are speeding up the importance of the uan because the Russians with their Alliance on the Chinese are doing more and more trade with the uan because they are shut out of the United States in an ironic twist American sanctions are undermining the future of the American economy in this among other ways Russia has played a crucial role in this shift following Western sanctions imposed on its economy in February 2022 Russia began fully accepting the Chinese Yuan for payments this move was not just a reaction to sanctions but a calculated step in the larger plan to challenge dollar hemony the results have been striking in 2023 and 20 20 24 the Chinese Yuan accounted for 42% of all International transactions initiated in Russia while the US dollar represented 39.5% this 2.5% difference marks a significant milestone in the uans the adoption of the Yuan extends Beyond Russia other developing countries including brics members like India and Brazil have also started using the Yuan for their trade especially for Commodities like crude oil India for instance saved an impressive $7 billion in currency exchange fees by using the Yuan instead of the US dollar to purchase oil at discounted rates between 2023 and 2024 the appeal of the Yuan to developing countries is multifaceted it not only offers a way to circumvent potential Western sanctions but also strengthens their local currencies and domestic economies this strategy aligns perfectly with the broader goals of dollarization and economic sovereignty pursued by many emerging economies according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexi overchuk around 92% of trade transactions between Russia and China are now carried out in Russian rubles and Chinese Yuan speaking at The boau Forum for Asia in hyan Province overchuk also expressed Russia's intention to deepen Financial ties with other countries and replace the US dollar in international trade to ensure the stability and security of local currencies the bilateral trade between China and Russia continues to flourish reaching $24.1 billion in 2023 a 26.3% increase from the previous year with energy being a key driver of this trade this growth demonstrates the effectiveness of their dollarization efforts and the strengthening economic ties between the two Nations the yuan's performance in international trade has been nothing short of remarkable according to data from the society for world wide interbank Financial telecommunication the world's largest interbank messaging service the yuan's usage in international trade reached an all-time high in July 2024 the Yuan maintained its position as the fourth most traded currency globally with its share of global transactions increasing to 4.74% from 4.61% in June this marked the ninth consecutive month that the yuan's share remained above 4% a clear indicat of its growing importance in the Global Financial system Swift payment data is crucial in measuring a currency standing in the international Arena it reflects not only the frequency of use in foreign exchange markets but also in commodity trading and inclusion in government foreign reserves the recent data shows that the value of transactions conducted in Yuan Rose by 13.4% compared to June outpacing the 10.33% growth recorded for all currencies combined it's worth noting that when Swift first started tracking the yuan's use in 2010 it accounted for less than 0.1% of global settlements since then the Yuan has risen significantly in trade Finance achieving the second spot with a 6% market share surpassing the Euro's 5.8% this rapid growth underscores the yuan's increasing importance in global trade and finance China's efforts to internationalize the Yuan have been Relentless and multifaceted in a significant development the Yuan became the most widely used currency for crossborder transactions in China in March surpassing the US dollar for the first time according to data from the state administration of Foreign Exchange crossb payments and receipts in Yuan hit a record $549.95 billion in March the Yuan accounted for 48.4% of all crossb transactions while the dollar share dropped to 4 6.7% from 48.6% the month before that's why it is as big as it is now and that's why most predictions have it be a bigger economy at the end of this decade than the United States and what that means is that all over the world citizens who are planning to do all kinds of growth and expansion and trade now need to have you on in their wallets yuan in their bank accounts because more and more countries are saying we want to be paid in that currency because we do more business with China than we do with the United States and therefore at the very least we want to reduce the old use of the dollar which was virtually total and now maybe 5050 you want you they're adjusting banks are doing the same with their reserves countries are doing the same with what the reserve is to back up their currency people will have confidence in their currency not now only because they also have dollars but because they also have Yuan and with the prospect of the Yuan becoming a bigger Factor connected to the biggest economy in the world within a few years the pressure is on no one knows how fast it will go it will diminish the subsidy we get as a nation it will squeeze American capitalism it will be a boon to the Chinese capitalism in just the ways the dollar Supremacy was for the United States by May 2024 the Yuan share had climbed to an impressive 53% while the US dollar share fell to 43% the Euro accounted for 2% and the Hong Kong dollar for 1% these figures cover both current account and capital account transactions highlighting the comprehensive nature of the yuan's adoption the use of the Yuan has also grown significantly in China's own foreign trade in the first quarter of 2024 28% of China's Goods trade was conducted in Yuan this internal shift is crucial as it demonstrates China's commitment to using its own currency for international transactions setting an example for other nations to follow according to a report from The People's Bank of China on the yuan's internationalization in 2023 crossborder transactions and payments in Yuan totaled 52.3 trillion Yuan or $7.2 trillion an increase of 24.2% year on-year for China's crossb trading Goods the share of transactions settled in Yuan Rose to 25% in 2023 up 7 percentage points from 202 2 in the first quarter of 2024 nearly 30% of such transactions were conducted in Yuan according to je hexen a Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China the global acceptance of the yuan is expanding rapidly several developing economies including Brazil Argentina Iraq and Pakistan have announced their willingness to accept Yuan payments in trade with China there are also media reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is considering using Yuan for oil trade with China a move that could potentially reshape the global oil Market the yuan's rise is not limited to trade transactions it's also making significant inroads in financial markets as of the end of May 2024 foreign investors held 4.2 trillion yuan in Mainland Chinese debt Securities a 32% increase from the previous year the issuance of Yuan denominated bonds by Foreign entities in mainland China known as Panda bonds has also o increased substantially since last year the appeal of panda bonds lies partly in their relative affordability with China's nominal interest rates significantly lower than those in the US between January and may 2024 Panda bonds worth 81 billion Yan 11 billion were issued in the interbank market bringing the total stock of panda bonds to around 240 billion yuan up from 195 billion yuan at the end of 2023 this shift in Global Currency dynamic is occurring against the backdrop of significant economic measures in China the Yuan recently hit a 16-month high against the US dollar strengthening to 7.17 per dollar this surge came in response to new stimulus measures announced by Chinese authorities including a 50 basis point cut to Banks Reserve requirement ratios easing of mortgage repayments for households and support for the housing and stock markets while these measures have initially been received positively by the markets some analysts Express concerns about the underlying economic challenges facing China the impact of these developments has been felt across Global Currency markets with the dollar Index declining and currencies like the Euro and Australian dollar strengthening the Australian dollar for instance strengthened 0.63% versus the green back to 0.688 touching a 14-month high of 0.6 885 after the country's Central Bank reiterated that interest rate Cuts were unlikely in the near- term as it held policy steady but softened its hawkish stance by saying monetary tightening was not discussed as the UN gains prominence it's crucial to consider the broader context of global Finance particularly the role of US Treasury Securities historically these Securities have been cornerstones of global banking reserves especially after the Breton Woods agreement in 1944 they have matured into cornerstones of global banking reserves enabling the US to finance its deficits economically thanks to robust International demand that keeps interest rates low however the current state of US national debt which exceeded $35 trillion by mid 2024 and has doubled in the last 15 years raises concerns about long-term economic stability this figure has doubled in the last 15 years highlighting a trend of increasing government expenditure and debt accumulation the rising US debt poses several risks including increased costs of debt servicing potential inflation and higher borrowing costs these factors could lead to the need for higher taxes or reduced government spending in the future the higher rates make debt servicing more expensive potentially leading to inflation and increased borrowing costs which could crowd out private investment China's strategy in red ucing its US Treasury Holdings is particularly noteworthy from a peak of 1316 trillion in 2013 China's Holdings have decreased to about $768 billion by mid 2024 this reduction reflects China's efforts to diversify its Investment Portfolio reduce exposure to US economic and political risks and seek greater economic autonomy the trend of dollarization is driven by a combination of geopolitical shifts economic changes and technological advancements countries like Russia and China are at the Forefront of these efforts promoting their own currencies and developing alternative payment systems for example China has set up the crossb interbank payment system to facilitate the international use of the renm UN the Dollar's share of global reserves has been declining falling from about 71% in 1999 to 59% by the first quarter of 2023 this shift reflects broader changes in the global economic landscape including the rise of emerging market economies and geopolitical shifts the potential impacts of dollarization on the US economy are significant they include increased borrowing costs as the government would need to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers for its debt Securities this could make it more expensive to finance public spending there could also be greater exchange rate volatility and potential inflationary pressures particularly if the cost of imports Rises due to a weaker dollar the recent news of un payments surpassing the US dollar by 2.5% marks a significant milestone in the ongoing transformation of the Global Financial system it underscores China's growing economic clout and signals a potential shift away from the dollar Centric model that has dominated international finance for decades be careful about your own Investments for those of you who have any because the dollar isn't what it was and it's part of the relative decline of the American capitalist system relative to where capitalism has moved its Dynamic growth Center and that is to the east our Russia has suggested that brics countries should drop the US dollar in favor of national currency SE when trading between the block the group of five emerging economies includes Brazil Russia India China as well as South Africa today bricks countries account for 45% of the global population approximately 3.63 billion people this demographic weight translates into significant economic and political clout on the world stage the alliance's influence extends far beyond its original economic Focus now encompassing geopolitical technological and strategic Dimensions well this is Russia trying to challenge the control of uh the financial markets by the United States these five countries as you said Brazil Russia India China and South Africa are the bricks group and they were set up more than 10 years ago now um as a block to try to challenge some of the uh power and control they perceived that the United States and European countries to have over the world including over the financial systems um and there's a way to step out from under those countries and start to work together the 15th bricks Summit held in Johannesburg South Africa marked a pivotal moment for the alliance attended by the heads of state or government of the five member countries the summit also saw the participation of leaders from 67 other nations highlighting the growing interest in bricks globally this unprecedented level of attendance underscores the increasing recognition of brics as a significant player in international affairs [Music] [Applause] they are leaving their mark on the International [Applause] System bricks Brazil Russia India China and South Africa are preparing for their next Summit since WRA of the invasion of Ukraine bricks actually gained a second momentum now there are calls for the group to grow we should start discussions around bricks expansion but what exactly is is bricks and what does it want we take on a very big mission which is to diversify the existing uh Western lad Global Financial system lack of unity lack of cohesion uh you know Mutual suspicion all this things are very much there in in in within bricks the application of uh even more countries wanting to join signifies that there's something that the bricks is doing right despite hurdles this group has been working together for 15 years now a key focus of the summit was the discussion of expansion after deliberations bricks formally announced the inclusion of five new members Egypt Ethiopia Iran United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia is yet to officially join but participates in the organization's activities as an invited Nation remaining countries joined the block on January 1st 2024 doubling the alliance's membership this expansion is not just a numerical increase but a strategic move that significantly enhances brics's Global footprint and influence this expansion signifies a major geopolitical shift the addition of these nations some of which have traditionally aligned with Western economic interests indicates a changing Global Dynamic it reflects a growing desire among developing nations to seek alternatives to Western dominated International institutions and to have a greater say in glob economic governance let's examine the significance of each new member Saudi Arabia's inclusion could have far-reaching implications for the Global Financial system as the leader of OPEC Saudi Arabia has been instrumental in maintaining the US dollar status as the world's primary Reserve currency through the Petro dollar system the US government has been pressuring Saudi Arabia to continue pricing its oil sales in US Dollars and changement that dates back to 1974 any shift away from this practice could significantly impact the Dollar's Global dominance the potential rejection of the Petro dollar could lead to a large surplus of dollars in World Trade potentially causing massive inflation especially in the US Egypt a major recipient of US foreign aid brings strategic importance to Bricks since 1978 Egypt has received over 80 billion in US foreign aid the country is also the United States largest export Market in Africa with bilateral trade nearing 10 billion annually American firms are active in most sectors of the Egyptian economy Egypt's decision to join bricks indicates a desire to balance its International relationships and reduce dependence on Western support this move could potentially lead to a shift in trade patterns and economic alignments in the region the United Arab Emirates UAE has had strong ties with the United States since the early 1970s including close security cooperation bilateral trade between the two countries has risen to $31 billion the UAE has participated in us-led military operations in various regions however recent decisions such as the uae's adoption of Chinese 5G technology in 2021 have caused some friction with the US the US ae's move to join brics suggests a strategic diversification of its International Partnerships which could have implications for regional geopolitics and economic relations Iran's inclusion in brics is less surprising given its strained relations with Western Nations however it's significant due to Iran's economic potential and energy resources with a GDP of 413 billion and control over 10% of the world's proven oil reserves and 177% of gas reserves Iran brings substantial economic weight to the alliance Iran's Advanced military manufacturing capabilities including its drone technology add a strategic Dimension to its brics membership Ethiopia the second most populous country in Africa has been a significant recipient of us Aid receiving an estimated $3.16 billion in humanitarian assistance since 2020 however tensions arose in 2020 1 when Ethiopia accused the United States of meddling in its Affairs over human rights concerns Ethiopia's inclusion in bricks reflects a shift in its International alignments and could influence other African nations perspectives on global Partnerships the expansion of bricks significantly boosts the alliance's economic power with the addition of major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE brics Now controls over 50% of global oil production the alliance's combined GDP has reached $3.8 trillion accounting for 35% of global GDP this economic clout positions brics as a formidable counterweight to Western dominated Economic Institutions the brics alliance has seen remarkable growth since its Inception in 2001 when the term was first coined brics countries represented just 17% of global GDP by 2024 this figure had nearly doubled surpassing the G7 Nations for the first time this growth trajectory underscores the shifting balance of global economic power brics's growing influence poses a threat to US dollar dominance the alliance has been actively pursuing dollarization efforts including the development of alternative Payment Systems brics pay for instance offers a single payment system outside of the dollar including a cloud plat to connect National Payment Systems a financial messaging system and a swift replacement when they were first set up but one of the things they have done is set up this uh new development Bank a bank between the five countries and open to others as well you might remember that South Africa um it approved a $1 billion loan to South Africa in June to help with some of the soci economic effects of the pandemic for example and Russia is suggesting that this bank can be used as a way to encourage more non-dollar payments so effectively when you're trading with another country to invoice that country in Rand or in rupees or in Rubles rather than in dollars as it way to lessen dependence on the US dollar and Russia is saying the move towards D dollarization is not limited to brics countries approximately 40 countries have expressed interest in joining brics indicating a broader desire to reduce dependence on the US dollar this trend is partly driven by concerns over the weaponization of the dollar in international relations as seen in the freezing of Russian assets following the invasion of Ukraine Russia and Iran have taken a leading role in demonstrating the potential of this system they have successfully linked their respective National Payment Systems Russia's system for transfer of financial messages spfs and Iran's electronic Financial messaging system sapam this integration allows the two Nations to conduct Financial transactions using their own currencies the ruble and the real effectively bypassing the US dollar and the Swift Network the impact of this integration has been substantial over 60% of trade between Russia and Iran is now conducted in their National currencies leading to a significant increase in bilateral trade in 2022 trade between the two countries reached 4.6 billion marking a 15% increase from the previous year both Nations have expressed Ambitions to double this figure to 8 billion in the coming years the brics intrabank system extends Beyond just Russia and Iran China for instance has been actively promoting the use of its crossb interbank payment system cips as an alternative to Swift India has also been working on integrating its unified payments interface UPI with Payment Systems of other countries these efforts when combined B create a robust framework for intra bricks Financial transactions that operate independently of Western Financial systems the threat this poses to US dollar dominance is multifaceted firstly by enabling trade in local currencies the system reduces the demand for US dollars in international transactions this could potentially lead to a decrease in the dollars liquidity and its status as the world's primary Reserve currency secondly the bricks bank system provides an alternative for countries facing us sanctions by offering a way to conduct International transactions outside of us controlled Financial networks it undermines the effectiveness of financial sanctions as a foreign policy tool this could significantly reduce US influence in global Affairs well Russia has been pushing this idea for years now and it's partly for economic reasons it wants to lessen its own dependence on the US uh dollar lessen the risk of having that kind of dependence on the dollar but it's also for political reasons because Russia believes that the United States uses its its position at the heart of the Global Financial system to further its own interests taking control of the IMF for example and in Russia's case Russia is concerned particularly about the possibility of the US imposing sanctions on Russia as it has many times over the last few years and it's no coincidence that Russia is trying to move away from this Reliance on the dollar at a time of worsening relations with the United States and Europe um since 2014 for example when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and big sanctions were put on freezing Financial assets freezing transactions um and in in 2018 for example after the Salsbury poisoning when many countries around the world imposed sanctions on Russia as well so that's one of the political reasons behind this it says that its own share of the dollar in its own transactions has fallen to 50% over the last few years the ruble share of that is about 14% so it is doing it itself and it has previously suggested other ways to move away from the dollar as well so for example bringing in a new payment system to challenge the Swift payment system if you've ever transferred money to another country it wants the brics countries to have their own version of that furthermore the success of the brics interbank system could encourage other countries to develop similar systems or join the bricks framework this would further erode the US Dollar's Global dominance and could lead to a more fragmented International Financial system the historical context of Reserve currency suggests that the US dollar Supremacy may be nearing its end dominant Reserve currencies typically have a life expectancy of around 100 years the US dollar officially took this title in 1944 as part of the Breton Woods agreement though some argue its dominant States back to the 1920s Stanley dren Miller a legendary investor known for his study of history and macroeconomics believes the USD will lose Reserve currency status within the next 15 years he States I can't find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with economic circumstances not one there are parallels between the current situation and the fall of the Roman Empire which was largely driven by excessive money creation and inflation the Roman leaders continually lowered the silver content in the Denarius coin allowing more coins to be pumped into circulation this practice akin to modern-day money printing led to inflation and economic instability the words of Marcus tus Cicero resonate today the budget should be balanced the treasury should be refilled public debt should be reduced the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled and assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt these words are particularly relevant as the United States continues to engage in significant overseas spending including military operations and foreign aid the US maintains over 750 military bases in over 80 countries and spends more on its military than the next 10 biggest countries combined it also provides over $50 billion in foreign aid annually far more than any other Nation as the US Dollar's dominance wanes alternative currencies and assets are gaining attention gold for instance has seen increased demand from central banks in 2022 central banks bought the most gold on record since 1950 in an effort to combat Rising inflation and financial instability in q1 of 2023 Central Bank gold demand hit 228 tons 34% higher than the previous q1 record set in 2013 bricks have used a twofold strategy on the one hand they lob for reforms of the World Bank and the IMF on the other hand they put forward their own institutions like the new development bank which opened in 2017 it finances development projects in member states such as electric buses in Brazil a hydrop power plant in Russia or water supply in India and it does so in a way that often suits these countries better just the architecture of the new development bank is is is one that is very different from the other financing institutions the IMA for the World Bank uh have something called the structural adjustment uh uh uh program so we see that as a conditionality you getting this Finance but this is what you need to change in your country so it's kind of just imposing themselves on those individual countries and we see that a lot in African countries who are U are borrowers in these institutions so that's the that's the key difference is that the new development Bank does not provide conditionality the bank also promotes the use of national currencies of bricks members both the NDB the new development bank and individual bricks members have this shared uh interest which is to create an alternative Financial system by using local currency in trade in investment in developing their own local currency bond market it seems likely that brics's economic presence globally will continue to grow this could lead to increased geopolitical competition between the US and China in various regions including Latin America and Africa as bricks Investments and trade relationships deepen the US may find itself increasingly sidelined in parts of the world it is long considered its sphere of influence the world order is Shifting beneath our feet as bricks expans its ranks it's not just challenging the status quo it's rewriting the rules of global power is this the beginning of the end for Western dominance in international institutions the US has dominated the global economy for decades but the world is fractured by geopolitical tensions and globalization is facing a backlash is the economic order changing is it the US versus China the trade war between the two Nations is heating up the competition between Washington and Beijing could accelerate the collapse of the old system so what's the alternative developing nations have formed economic alliances like bricks to counter the dominance of the West
.hi I'm Steve Clemens and I have a question for all of our Lives the dollar has been the king of currencies around
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