Bloggers note : with transcript below Interesting analyses of the situation in Ukraine and Russia
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The war began in Crimea and will end there again.
During the time when these words came out of the mouth of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia had been continuously blockading a large part of the country, including the Ukrainian coastline, from Crimea with very heavy pressure.
Every day, missiles, drones and glide bombs belonging to the Russian army were launched from Crimea to Ukraine.
Time passed and the conditions of the war changed.
The Ukrainians created a surprising revolution on the Crimean Peninsula, which is considered the pearl of the Black Sea.
Currently, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has a big problem on the peninsula.
Putin is in danger of losing control of Crimea.
The attacks and explosions, especially on the Crimean coast, have seriously alarmed the Russians on the peninsula. Great panic movements were observed in the Russian army and the Russian people.
The source of the panic was very clear: the fear of losing Crimea...
So what will happen if Russia loses the peninsula, how will the power competition in the Black Sea take shape?
Will the loss of Crimea make Putin lose the Ukraine war?
Now let's better understand what the peninsula, where Putin has the possibility of being humiliated against Ukraine, means for the most critical war of the century, and what the consequences of the loss of Crimea will be for Russia.
The Kerch Bridge and the military formations around it in Crimea have been targeted many times.
In fact, the increasing attacks by Ukrainian forces and their attempts to weaken the Russian presence in Crimea seem to have been successful.
In particular, the complete destruction of the Oil Depots in the Feodisia Port has increased the desperation of the Russians.
As a result of the attack, the Russian army vehicles in Crimea were completely out of fuel. There are currently very serious efforts to meet the oil needs of Russian military vehicles. This leaves the approximately 60,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea largely helpless and defenseless.
The attempts to wear down the Russian army in Crimea for about 3 years seem to be starting to yield sharp results.
Thousands of Russians have been evacuated from Feodisia in recent weeks.
With such attacks, the Ukrainians are giving signals that they will retake Crimea.
Realizing this danger, the Russians in Crimea are leaving the peninsula.
It is estimated that the number of Russians who have fled Crimea so far has exceeded 100,000.
In our report, we will examine the events in Crimea in detail
VIDEO ..
welcome to PPR Global the war started in
Crimea and will end there at the time when these words came out of the mouth of Ukrainian President Vladimir zalinski Russia had blockaded a large part of the country including the Ukrainian Coastline continuously from Crimea with very heavy pressure every day missiles drones and gliding bombs of the Russian army were launched from Crimea into Ukraine time passed and the circumstances of the war changed the ukrainians have created an astonishing breakthrough on the Crimean Peninsula the pearl of the Black Sea now Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has a big problem on the peninsula Putin is in danger of losing control of Crimea attacks and explosions especially on the Crimean Coast have seriously alarmed Russians on the peninsula the Russian army and the Russian people are in a state of panic the source of the panic was clear the fear of losing Crimea so what will happen if Russia loses the peninsula and how will the power rivalry in the Black Sea be shaped will the loss of Crimea make Putin lose the war in Ukraine before going to Crimea the Strategic peninsula of the Black Sea where all these scenarios are shaped please do not forget to subscribe to our Channel turn on notifications and like to be informed about our content let's better understand what the peninsula means for the most critical War of the century where Putin is likely to be humiliated against Ukraine and what the consequences of crimea's loss would be for Russia in Crimea the Kirch bridge and the military formations around it have been targeted many times in fact the increased attacks by Ukrainian forces and attempts to erode the Russian presence in Crimea seem to have been successful in particular the the complete destruction of the oil depos in the port of fesia increased the desperation of the Russians as a result of the attack the vehicles of the Russian army in Crimea were left completely without fuel there are now serious efforts to meet the oil needs of Russian military vehicles this leaves the approximately 60,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea largely helpless and defenseless attempts to wear down the Russian army in Crimea which have been underway for nearly 3 years seem to be beginning to bear fruit thousands of Russians have been evacuated from fesia in recent weeks the ukrainians are signaling that they will take back Crimea with such attacks realizing this danger the Russians in Crimea are leaving the peninsula it is estimated that the number of Russians who have fled Crimea so far has exceeded 100,000 Last Summer the Crimean Coast was empty some Russians sold their houses and land and left the peninsula even high ranking soldiers of the Russian army sent their families to Russia but this is just the beginning there is a great panic in the Russian army and in the Kremlin however it is not a big problem for Putin that the Russian people periodically leave the peninsula and the Russian army is in a difficult situation in Crimea the real problem was is that the Russian Navy had to flee Crimea and Russia lost control over the Black Sea and the Ukrainian Coast the Russian military has made many defensive attempts to prevent this but so far they have not succeeded on the other hand the ever increasing offensive range of Ukrainian forces and the expansion of its Navy is another source of panic in the Kremlin likewise the Black Sea is very important for Russia losing control of Crimea would also mean losing control of the Black Sea to a large extent control of the black Sea's near Waters has been a bone of contention for centuries and has played a role in the current Russian Ukrainian War Crimea has been one of Russia's lifelines Russia's seizure of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 gave it control of the sea port of sevastopol what is close to Ukrainian Waters has become de facto near waters for Russia controlling these near Waters allowed Russia to disrupt Ukraine's trade especially grain exports to distant African Waters however Russia's move was thwarted by the cooperation of Romania Bulgaria and turkey which allowed cargo ships to pass through their near Waters and then through the Straits to the Mediterranean Ukraine's use of these other Count's near Waters allowed it to export between 5.2 million and 5.8 million tons of grain per month in the 2024 this was of course a drop from Ukraine's exports of around 6.5 million tons per month before the war then falling to Just 2 million tons in the summer of 2023 due to Russian attacks and threats but Russia's efforts to limit Ukraine's control of its near Waters in the Black Sea and NATO country's unwillingness to face the consequences of attacking ships in its near Waters meant that Ukraine still had access to distant Waters to make economic gains and keep its economy afloat in addition to being hampered in its ability to disrupt Ukrainian exports Russia has also been subjected to direct Naval incursions into Crimea since February 2022 using unmanned attack drones Ukraine has successfully sunk or damaged Russian ships and weakened Russia's Black Sea Fleet when The fullscale Invasion began the Russian Black Sea Fleet had 74 warships most of which were stationed in ports in Russian occupied Crimea it sank about 28 of its pre-war Fleet of about 36 warships and damaged others Russia was forced to limit its use of sevastopol and deploy its ships in the eastern part of the black sea Russia's Black Sea fleet was unable to operate effectively in the nearby Waters it had gained with the capture of Crimea Russia's Naval defeats against Ukraine marked the collapse of its historical difficulties in projecting Naval power and the consequent tendency to focus mainly on the defense of the near Waters in other words in the struggle for control of the Black Sea Russia faced a surprising defeat this loss has potentially far reaching consequences for Russia this tragic situation has limited its ability to project power around the world through Naval means in fact the curtailment of the Russian Navy was so shocking that Putin's last remaining Patrol ship in Crimea was observed sailing from sevastopol to Novar rosis Against All Odds the withdrawal of Russian warships from Crimea could be a sign that Ukraine is actually winning when Russia first blockaded Ukrainian ports on the eve of a full-scale 2022 few believed that the dilapidated Ukrainian Navy could seriously challenge the dominance of the powerful Russian Black Sea Fleet but once hostilities began it quickly became clear that Ukraine had no intention of giving Putin control of the Black Sea without a fight Ukraine used a combination of domestically produced drones and missiles along with long range weapons supplied by the West to deliver a series of devastating blows against Putin's Fleet cruise missiles delivered by kev's British and French Partners played an important role in this campaign but the most effective weapons of all were Ukraine's rapidly developing Fleet of innovative Naval drones in total Russia has attacked nearly 200 Port facilities since withdrawing from the grain deal in July but Ukraine's drone Army has tempered Russia's aggressive behavior in the Black Sea Ukraine had to work hard to create its own Corridor overthrowing Russia's dominance in the Black Sea without a single working warship the first success came shortly after the Russian invasion when Ukraine blocked an amphibious Landing it was a close-range thing but the key moment was stopping Russia's Westward encirclement of Odessa at vosens 100 km away in March 2022 two months later Ukraine was able to impose a 100 nautical mile buffer in the Northwestern part of the Black Sea after destroying Russia's mosa Flagship and regaining control of the Strategic Snake Island the third phase completed in 2023 saw Ukraine completely push Russian warships out of the Northwestern Central and even Southwestern parts of the Black Sea this final piece of the puzzle relied on Ukraine's Naval forces developing an arsenal of missiles and drones to hunt down and sync Russian warships Ukraine's new deterrence capability created by all this allowed Russia to bet that it would not attack a foreign merchant ship Not only would such an attack provoke an international backlash but the threat of escalation means that it would increase insurance premiums in the Black Sea including for maritime transportation to Russia so far Ukraine has won the bat with the exception of a Liberian flagged ship that was probably hit by accident while anchored in pivi last November Russia can and does drop gliding bombs from the air in the general direction of the emergency Corridor mines from the second world war are also an occasional problem both are a nuisance but not enough to deter large cargo ships despite such threats Ukraine's e efforts to become more active in the Black Sea have been a boon to Kiev in the war the launch of odessa's deep sea ports for example is a timely boost to Ukraine's battered economy Ukraine's Deputy economy Minister Alexis soal told the press that the lifting of the sea blockade is estimated to add at least $3.3 billion to exports this year and 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth still those in involved are too cautious to declare Victory one Trader in charge of one of odessa's largest private terminals requested anonymity for fear that Russia would Target his business it is known that Ukraine does not yet have sufficient air defenses International monitoring and ideally International military escorts to make the new Corridor fully secure but even in the worst of times the ukrainians have proven one successful point and that is the fact fact that Maritime Transportation will continue even during Russian bombardment while the Ukrainian side took steps to increase its strength in Crimea Russia started to send additional military resources from Crimea to stop the Ukrainian military action in the ksk oblast this was quite surprising the atesh group known as the Ukrainian partisan movement reported that Russian troops were transporting weapons ammunition and Military equip equipment from the occupied Crimean Peninsula to the ksk region and published very important photos on the subject in the description of the published photos the Ates group claimed that weapons ammunition and military equipment belonging to the 810th Marine Brigade of the Russian army were being prepared for departure to the ksk oblast the 810th separate Marine infantry Brigade part of Russia's Black Sea Fleet Coastal forces is based in kacha Bay near sevastopol the transfer of this brigade's weapons and other military equipment to ksk leaves kacha Bay vulnerable or were the Russians agreeing to give this area to Ukraine as a gift according to the partisans Russian forces continue to repair damaged equipment at repair centers at the base of the 810th Brigade in Crimea and then send it for deployment to the ksk region without regard for the the security of kacha the Russian military is also trying to fill this shortage of weapons and Military Ammunition by reallocating resources from Crimea as well as military ammunition from less active regions such as the kerson sector ammunition from Crimea and kerson to ksk oblast includes Soviet zuu 23 23 moms twin anti-aircraft guns Landing combat Vehicles military Kamas cargo trucks used to transport ammunition or Personnel sharing all these critical details partisans of the atesh group said that they continue to monitor Russian military movements and share this information with the Ukrainian Defense Forces in a recent report atesh agents discovered a Book M3 medium range anti-aircraft missile system on the coast of the gagaran district in sevastopol among the discoveries of the partisan members was also a p18 radar station used for early warning and targeting for the Book M3 the dispatch of these military resources from Crimea and kersen to ksk is quite at odds with Russia's idea of complete control over Southern Ukraine and the Black Sea Russian President Vladimir Putin's statements about protecting the Crimean Peninsula lose their impact in the face of all this but can Vladimir Putin protect Crimea against Ukrainian aggression can Russia reassert its dominance in the Black Sea before exploring the answers to these questions we can take a look back in history at similar situations Russia has faced in 1905 Russia was shocked by a dramatic Naval loss to Japan yet even in cases where it was not completely defeated Russian naval power has historically been consistently constrained in the first world war Russia cooperated with the British royal Navy to limit German trading activities in the Baltic Sea and Turkish Commercial and Military access in the Black Sea in the second world war Russia relied on material support from the allies and was largely blockaded in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea ports many ships were brought close to home or deprived of their weapons as artillery or offshore support for the territorial struggle with Germany me meanwhile during the Cold War although the Soviet Union built fast-moving missile boats and some aircraft carriers its reach into distant Waters relied on submarines the main purpose of the Soviet Mediterranean fleet was to prevent NATO from entering the Black Sea and now Russia has lost control of the Black Sea it cannot operate in these once secure near Waters this loss of control also reduces Russia's ability to project Naval power from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean let us now look at how Russia can solve this equation and what options Putin should focus on faced with a major loss in its backyard and weakened in its near Waters Russia can project its power in distant Waters only through cooperation with China China is also investing heavily in its Naval capacity in distant Waters The Joint Naval exercises in the South China Sea in July 2024 are pro proof of this cooperation Wang Guang Jang of the Southern theater of the Chinese people's Liberation Army Navy said that joint sinor Russian patrols can promote deepening and practical cooperation between the two sides in multiple directions and Fields for Russia this cooperation is a mutually beneficial project of Naval power projection that makes complete military sense but it seems to be largely to China's advantage to regain control of the Black Sea Russia could help China defend its near Northern Waters and secure access to distant Waters via the Arctic Ocean in this way China could help Russia regain its lost advantage in the Black Sea moscow's strategic interests will only be supported if they align with Chinese interests more importantly sea power is about power projection for economic gain China is likely to use Russia to protect its Contin economic access to the remote Waters of Africa the Pacific Europe and South America but it is unlikely to jeopardize these interests for Russian objectives of course Russia has offshore economic interests especially in sahal and subsaharan Africa and securing Russian interests in Africa complements China's growing Maritime presence in the Indian Ocean securing its own and larger global economic interests but cooperation is still likely to depend on China's will so Russia's only way at the moment to project its Naval power bottled up in the waters close to the Black Sea as a result of its war in Ukraine is access to the distant Waters of Africa and the Indian Ocean as a junior partner with China which will dictate the terms and conditions otherwise even if Russia triumphs on land in its war against Ukraine it will not compensate for its continued inability to project power on its own across the oceans thank you for tuning
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