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Saturday, November 23, 2024
Russia Will Go to War With Canada Because of THIS… #Canada #Arctic #oil #fishing #security #NAVY
..Russia and Canada are locked in a high-stakes contest over the Arctic, a region rich with untapped resources and strategic importance. From oil reserves to vital shipping routes, the melting ice has revealed opportunities—and sparked tensions. Russia’s bold territorial claims and growing military presence challenge Canada’s sovereignty and influence.
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Russia and Canada. Two nations separated by oceans, yet bound by a chilling tension across the Arctic. For years, their relationship has been rocky, marked by rigid diplomacy and wary standoffs. But what started as merely icy stares across frozen waters has now evolved into something far more intense. Something that promises to transform this chess game played in shadows and sub-zero temperatures into a full-scale confrontation. Into a war. But what’s pushing these two northern giants toward an armed conflict? We’ve got all the answers in this video. Now, if all those ice-cold metaphors didn’t give it away already…yes, it’s the Arctic Ocean that’s at the heart of this brewing conflict. Simply put, Russia wants control over more of the Arctic Ocean than any nation has ever claimed. That’s why, in April of 2021, Moscow submitted a bold request to the United Nations to extend its Arctic territory by over 270,000 square miles. If granted, this would stretch Russia’s influence right to Canada’s exclusive economic zone (also known as the EEZ) limits – essentially, Canada’s front yard. Under international law, EEZs grant each country sovereign rights over a 200-nautical-mile stretch of ocean from their shores. Within this zone, countries control resource extraction, drilling, and, to a degree, shipping routes. But Russia’s claim went far beyond just bumping up against Canada’s EEZ – it would extend over entire sections of Canada’s continental shelf, and also include areas claimed by Denmark. A maximalist move, as Canadian experts call it. To some, this was Russia “playing by the rules,” testing boundaries with scientific claims and hoping to nudge Canada, Denmark, and other Arctic nations into negotiating boundaries. But for Canada, Russia’s move was more than a nudge. It was a direct challenge to its Arctic sovereignty. By 2023, this standoff only intensified. In February, the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf approved most of Russia’s claim to the Arctic Ocean’s seabed, including the highly-contested Lomonosov Ridge – a strategic area stretching toward Canada and Greenland. Though Canada and Denmark filed overlapping claims, they’re unlikely to be addressed for years, effectively giving Russia the upper hand. Of course, Russia fully embraced this. Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy at the time, made the country’s intentions crystal clear. According to him, Russia needed “full-scale expansion into the continental shelf.” The goal? Control over nearly 70% of the Arctic Ocean. Russia also used the fact that the world’s attention was focused on Ukraine to secure power and influence over the North – a dramatic flex of strength that underscores its Arctic ambitions. As a consequence of these moves, Canada finds itself in an urgent struggle, bracing for potential long-term confrontation in one of Earth’s last frontiers. But why? Why would two of the world’s largest nations risk so much over what seems like a frozen wasteland? Because of what lies beneath the ice – vast oil and gas reserves, strategic waterways, and essential resources that could shift the balance of power for decades to come. According to a 2008 U.S. Geological Survey, at least 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas lie under the Arctic Ocean. If Russia were to gain control over these resources, its potential revenue could exceed $7.4 trillion. For a nation where oil and gas make up about 20% of GDP and as much as 60% of export revenues, securing these Arctic resources isn’t just desirable; it’s essential. Without access to the Arctic’s wealth, Russia’s economic stability is at risk, a threat that has bolstered President Vladimir Putin’s determination to lay claim to as much of the Arctic as possible. In his words, the Arctic waters must be protected “by all means.” And based on Russia’s military posturing in the Arctic, it’s clear that the country is quite serious about this commitment. But more on that later. For now, let’s further discuss what makes the Arctic so appealing to the two potential combatants. After all, energy resources are only one part of Russia’s interest in the Arctic. You see, global warming is melting the Arctic ice, which pushes valuable fish stocks northward as new waters open up to commercial fishing. This trend is crucial for Russia because approximately one-third of all fish harvested in the country already comes from Arctic waters, making it a critical food source. Given that 400,000 Russians were identified as severely food insecure between 2019 and 2021, fishing rights are not just economic but a national security priority. Expanding Russia’s Arctic fishing zones could help address food shortages in a nation where remote regions rely heavily on marine resources for sustenance. But the Arctic is more than a resource bank for energy and food. It’s also home to the Northern Sea Route (or NSR) and the Northwest Passage (or NWP). The former is a key waterway along Russia’s northern coast, which offers the Kremlin a strategic opportunity to control a critical artery for shipping. As Arctic ice recedes, Russia hopes to convert this route into a competitive corridor that could rival the Suez Canal for Asia-Europe trade by 2035. In 2020, the Kremlin outlined an ambitious Arctic strategy emphasizing the NSR as central to its plans for expanding Russia’s economic and geopolitical influence. Increased traffic along this route would not only generate shipping fees but also deepen Russian influence over global trade. With control over the NSR, Russia could expand its export market to Asia, an attractive option that would lessen reliance on European customers – a relationship already strained by Western sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine. As for the Northwest Passage, it’s a treasure trove waiting to be unlocked. A legendary route that has eluded explorers for centuries, the NWP is now poised to become a maritime reality. And what does this new reality entail? Cutting shipping routes by over 4,350 miles. That’s what the NWP promises. As such, this revolutionary passage could redefine global trade, making the arduous journeys between the Americas, Europe, and Asia far more efficient. But why now? Why is the NWP becoming a reality just now? Two words: climate change. As Arctic temperatures soar, ice that once blocked these waterways is disappearing at an alarming rate. How alarming? Well, the Arctic is warming at a rate twice that of any other region, so the NWP could soon be free from its icy chains. By 2050, we may witness entirely ice-free summers, ushering in a new era of navigation. This means that the dream of a reliable shipping route is no longer a distant fantasy – though at a large cost to the planet. For Russia, the NWP represents an untapped potential. As the country bolsters its Atlantic capabilities, it sees the NWP as a key to unlocking greater access to trade routes. With the ice melting, Russia’s ambitions only intensify. If Moscow manages to assert control over this passage, it could dominate the entire northern maritime trade. This would allow Russia to dictate terms and access to vital shipping lanes. But not so fast. There’s a major obstacle in Russia’s path to dominance: Canada. And Canada stands resolute. The NWP is within Canada’s territorial grasp. The Prince of Wales Strait and the M’Clure Strait – two critical components of the NWP – are seen as extensions of Canadian territory. So, for the country, the passage isn’t just about trade; it’s a matter of sovereignty. However, Canada also knows that its claims of sovereignty will come under fire as the NWP transitions from myth to reality. But the NWP isn’t the only point of contention for Canada. Arctic resources could also funnel billions of dollars into Canada’s economy and potentially secure its future as an energy powerhouse. In Canada’s view, Russia’s bid for control directly threatens Canadian sovereignty and the prospect of tapping into these reserves. Given that Russia already controls 53% of the Arctic coastline, Canada sees these extension efforts as a blatant overreach. Beyond energy and sovereignty, Canada’s fishing industry would also benefit from expanded access to the Arctic. Securing more fishing waters could support northern communities and help ensure long-term food security. Canada argues that it, too, has a historical claim to Arctic territories, particularly those contiguous to its EEZ. The competition for Arctic sovereignty underscores deep-rotted differences between Canada and Russia, but it’s only part of the larger picture. The geopolitical shifts in the 2020s have also exacerbated tensions between Russia and Canada. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, seven members of the eight-member Arctic Council, which was chaired by Russia at the time, announced a boycott of any Russia-led talks. Historically, this council included both Russia and Canada as key members. However, these diplomatic ties sharply weakened for two reasons that went beyond the invasion of Ukraine itself. First was Canada’s military assistance to Ukraine and second was Russia’s military activities in the Arctic under the backdrop of growing NATO presence along its borders. Let’s tackle Canada and Ukraine’s relationship first. In response to Russia’s aggression, Canada made significant contributions to Ukraine, totaling almost $9 billion in financial assistance. The aid was crucial for the Ukrainian government to continue operating, delivering essential services and pensions to its citizens. Canada provided $4.86 billion through the International Monetary Fund, along with $360 million in direct bilateral loans. Furthermore, at the 2024 G7 Summit, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a remarkable $5 billion (in Canadian dollars) to help accelerate future revenues from frozen Russian assets, amounting to an estimated $69 billion (also in Canadian dollars), which is approximately $50 billion U.S. In addition to financial aid, Canada committed to over $258 million in humanitarian aid. This funding supported emergency health services and essential life-saving initiatives, such as shelter and food distribution for displaced populations. Security and stabilization support also saw a significant escalation, with Canada committing approximately $151 million to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities after the full-scale invasion began. This included $16.2 million dedicated to demining and explosive ordnance disposal efforts. Notably, over $14 million was aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s ability to counter threats from chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Furthermore, almost $3 million was directed to strengthen the National Police of Ukraine, reflecting a comprehensive approach to ensuring stability. Although Canada’s humanitarian and economic assistance to Ukraine demonstrates a profound commitment to helping it maintain its sovereignty, the most dangerous aspect of this involvement lies in the military aid provided. In a little over two and a half years, military donations from Canada totaled $3.2 billion, a significant investment that fueled Ukraine’s defense. This aid included long-range weapons. However, for a long time, Ukraine wasn’t allowed to use these long-range weapons to strike Russian soil to prevent further escalation. But this changed in 2024, with Trudeau arguing that strikes deep inside Russia are essential for preventing further assaults on civilian infrastructure. This bold support raised the stakes significantly, as Russia interpreted these long-range strikes as a provocative escalation. Putin cautioned that allowing Ukraine to strike targets within Russian territory could lead to a confrontation between NATO countries and Russia. And given Russia’s history of fabricating justifications for its military aggression, one must wonder – what’s to stop it from doing the same against Canada? This concern is heightened by Russia’s increasing military activities in the Arctic – the second reason why the diplomatic relationship between the two countries has all but crumbled. Over the past decade or so, Russia has ramped up its military presence in the Arctic Circle, positioning itself as a formidable force amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Moscow’s aggressive stance reflects its ambitions to control Arctic resources and shipping routes while reinforcing its military infrastructure. The Northern Fleet, stationed primarily on the Kola Peninsula, plays a pivotal role in this strategy, housing eight of the Russian Navy’s 16 ballistic missile submarines. These submarines are Delta IV and Borei-class vessels, and they can carry a deadly arsenal. Each Delta IV is equipped to hold 16 SS-N-23 Sineva submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) alongside the SS-N-15 Starfish, an anti-submarine missile, providing both nuclear and defensive capabilities. The Borei-class submarines are even more formidable, each armed with 16 SS-N-32 Bulava SLBMs, the latest in Russian missile technology designed to evade missile defenses and deliver nuclear payloads. So, it’s no wonder that this fleet is essential for Russia’s security, forming a cornerstone of the country’s nuclear deterrent. The Northern Fleet’s importance in the region was also underscored by significant organizational changes, including its elevation to Russia’s fifth Military District. This reorganization reflects a heightened commitment to bolster the Arctic defense – or offense – capabilities. In 2014, Russia established an Arctic joint strategic command specifically aimed at enhancing protection for military installations across the NSR. This included the creation of new Arctic brigades equipped with advanced military technologies. Fast forward a decade, and the fleet has grown to over 450 armored personnel carriers, artillery systems, and a variety of cross-country vehicles ready for deployment. This restructuring isn’t just a symbolic gesture. It’s a clear indication that Russia is preparing for potential conflicts over the Arctic’s vast resources. This preparation also entails establishing military bases throughout the Arctic. Since 2005, Russia has reopened at least 10 Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic, bringing these once-neglected facilities back into operational status. These bases, such as those on Wrangel Island, Cape Schmidt, and Kotelny Island, have been modernized to host a new generation of military assets, including upgraded ships and advanced air defense systems. But the Russian modernization efforts don’t just stop at military bases. As part of the Northern Fleet’s upgrade, new naval surface combatants are also being introduced, along with more sophisticated missile and artillery units. The fleet now includes multiple brigade combat teams and a motorized infantry brigade, which enhances its ground capabilities. As of 2019, the Northern Fleet was reported to have 37 surface vessels, including 10 operational large vessels and the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, the only one of its kind in the Russian Navy. Although this carrier has faced significant operational challenges, it remains a powerful symbol of Russia’s naval ambitions. The fleet also includes advanced Kirov-class missile cruisers, Slava-class guided missile destroyers, and Gorshkov-class frigates, all of which are equipped with sophisticated anti-ship and air defense systems. The fleet’s air defense systems have also seen significant upgrades, with the deployment of long-range S-400 and S-300 anti-aircraft systems at strategic locations like the Kola Peninsula and the New Siberian Islands. The establishment of dual-use facilities – designed for both civilian and military purposes – further bolsters Russia’s capacity to project power throughout the Arctic. And that’s not all. The introduction of over 50 new icebreakers, including nuclear-powered vessels, significantly enhances Russia’s operational capability in Arctic waters. To put this figure into perspective, all you need to know is that the U.S. and China each have only two operational diesel-powered icebreakers. Russia’s impressive fleet allows for year-round access to the NSR, enabling not only military operations but also the facilitation of commercial shipping and energy exploration in previously inaccessible areas. On the air combat front, Russia has established four major air units in the Arctic. At Severomorsk, the fleet operates the 279th Shipborne Fighter Regiment with approximately 24 Su-33 fighter jets and the 100th Shipborne Fighter Regiment with 24 MiG-29K fighters. Additionally, the 98th Mixed Air Regiment at Monchegorsk operates an estimated 12 MiG-31BMs, 12 Su-24Ms, and reconnaissance aircraft. This diverse array of air assets enables Russia to maintain a robust air presence in the Arctic, ensuring rapid response capabilities in the event of a military conflict. Regular demonstrations of these capabilities, such as flights from Nagurskoye to the North Pole, serve to intimidate and signal resolve to NATO nations. But believe it or not, the list goes on. Among the most concerning developments in the Arctic region are Russia’s advancements in missile technology. The Kremlin is actively developing hypersonic missiles like the Zircon, which can reportedly travel at speeds exceeding nine times the speed of sound. These missiles have also been successfully tested in Arctic waters and are viewed as a game-changer in the realm of missile defense. The integration of hypersonic missiles into Russia’s arsenal not only enhances its offensive capabilities but also complicates NATO’s defensive strategies, which rely on more traditional missile detection and interception methods. Unfortunately, there’s nothing traditional or predictable about Russia’s military efforts in the Arctic. In addition to the extensive military modernization and infrastructure developments, Russia’s military activities in this region have also been characterized by a sophisticated approach to domain awareness and electronic warfare. The Kremlin has reportedly deployed advanced radar systems, including the Rezonans-N, to key strategic locations such as Novaya Zemlya, the Kanin Peninsula, and Indiga. These radar systems are designed to enhance Russia’s surveillance capabilities. It’s asserted that they can detect hypersonic missiles and stealth aircraft. The Rezonans-N systems, along with other Sopka-2 radar systems installed at airbases like Temp, Nagurskoye, and Rogachevo, provide Russia with a significant advantage in monitoring Arctic airspace. While the precise capabilities of these radar systems remain somewhat ambiguous, some Russian sources claim that they possess advanced over-the-horizon detection capabilities. However, it remains uncertain whether these systems can provide early enough warning against stealth aircraft to facilitate effective interception. Additionally, a dual-use air-surveillance radar station on Graham Bell Island adds another layer of monitoring, showcasing Russia’s comprehensive approach to securing its Arctic interests. In the realm of electronic warfare, Russia has established centers in Severomorsk, Kamchatka, and Primorsky Krai. These facilities are equipped with advanced systems that can facilitate anti-submarine warfare and disrupt maritime communications. Russia’s military doctrine places significant emphasis on electronic warfare as a means of gaining a battlefield advantage, meaning they could employ the technology to jam Western communications and radars, thereby confusing adversaries and complicating their decision-making processes. Such capabilities can serve both offensive and defensive purposes, allowing Russia to maintain operational security while undermining the effectiveness of NATO forces in the region. The escalation of military exercises has also marked a significant development in Arctic security dynamics. In 2024 alone, the Arctic Military Activity Tracker found over a dozen instances of Russian military exercises or training taking place in the region. These developments indicate that the Arctic is becoming an arena of intense military competition. And the activity could easily transform into an armed clash. What’s particularly troubling for this scenario is the perceived inaction of NATO and Canada in the region. As several military experts have noted, NATO’s current footprint in the Arctic lags behind Russia’s by approximately a decade. A decade that might be the difference between peace and peril. According to Ketil Olsen, a former Norwegian military representative in NATO, the situation is dire: “The Arctic is currently a dark area on the map... It’s so vast and with few civilian surveillance resources.” This stark assessment highlights the urgent need for enhanced monitoring and defense capabilities in a region that is increasingly becoming a focal point of geopolitical tension. The challenges posed by Russia’s military buildup are compounded by the fact that the West has not prioritized its own Arctic capabilities. General Glen VanHerck, a retired U.S. Air Force general and former chief of the U.S. Northern Command, emphasized the need for improved “domain awareness” in the Arctic to counter Russian and Chinese threats. During a Senate hearing in early 2022, he pointed out that, “What you can’t see and what you can’t determine, you can’t defend from.” This sentence perfectly summarizes the critical gap in surveillance and intelligence capabilities that could limit the West’s response time in the event of a crisis. But even after a crisis struck – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the response from the Arctic allies has been slow. Canada pledged to increase military spending by $10 billion to bolster its Arctic defenses, including upgrades to early warning radar systems and the acquisition of new surveillance planes capable of detecting submarines. However, the first of these planes won’t be delivered until 2032, and retired Canadian Defence Chief General Wayne Eyre has acknowledged that they “will take decades to be ready.” This timeline is more than troubling, especially considering that Russia’s military efforts in the Arctic continue to evolve. Unfortunately, the current military situation in the Arctic is no less troubling than the future one. According to analysts, the current military balance in the region is heavily weighted in favor of Russia. The Kremlin’s network of bases inside the Arctic Circle outnumbers NATO’s by about a third. This reality reflects a significant strategic disadvantage for NATO and Canada, raising questions about their preparedness to effectively counter any Russian aggression in the region. But what does Canada think of all of this? Well, for one, the Canadian military undoubtedly recognizes the threat posed by Russia. That’s why the country has been framed as Canada’s main enemy, alongside China. A 2023 military document outlined the Canadian Forces’ need to adapt in preparation for a long-term conflict with these nations, echoing sentiments similar to those expressed by NATO and the Pentagon. Retired Defence Chief Eyre emphasized the seriousness of the situation: “We must remember that Russia and China do not differentiate between peace and war. The hostile intentions and actions of our adversaries show that they consider themselves to be at war with the West.” Eyre’s acknowledgment reflects a broader understanding that the security landscape has shifted dramatically and necessitates a robust response. And yet, Canada still seems to be scrambling to respond appropriately. Experts argue that Canada has been slow to respond to hostile actions partly because of the belief that lack of actual fighting has made urgent preparations unnecessary. Eyre’s employment concept paper bluntly states, “The absence of armed conflict between Canada and its adversaries has, at times, left the country in general, and the [Canadian Armed Forces] in particular, slow to respond to hostile actions.” There’s no doubt about it – this complacency must change as the threats posed by Russia escalate. That’s why Canada’s military leadership advocates for a whole-of-government approach to address the defense challenges, emphasizing the need for the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence in military operations. The AI would have various applications in the military, from event prediction to supporting decision-making, showcasing a forward-thinking strategy that seeks to enhance Canada’s military capabilities. However, as Canada prepares to invest in its defense more heavily, significant concerns linger about its overall military readiness and the management of existing resources. Even with the potential of war growing larger with every passing day, the Canadian Armed Forces emphasize that the country isn’t on a war footing. This sentiment is echoed by various experts who stress that Canada lacks the necessary Navy, Air Force, and logistical assets to project power effectively. Let’s take the Canadian military’s current air capabilities as an example. The Royal Canadian Air Force operates around 263 aircraft, but most of them are aging, thus falling short of what is required to confront modern threats. At the same time, Canada’s defense industry is ill-equipped for any potential confrontation. Even worse, Canada is pretty resistant to the notion of fully mobilizing its defense industry for the brewing conflict. But this shouldn’t be surprising, given Canada’s history in this department. You see, the Canadian federal government has avoided developing a comprehensive plan to fully mobilize resources for a conventional war for decades. This situation was exacerbated during the Cold War and has not been adequately addressed since. With all this in mind, what can we expect from a Russia-Canada war? How will Canada fare in this conflict? Well, if Russia decides to attack in the Arctic, it would probably score a resounding victory, given Canada’s insufficient military readiness and resource allocation. However, if Russia decided to attack Canada directly, the outcome would be far from clear-cut. Sure, on paper, Russia boasts a formidable military. Far more impressive than Canada. However, the lessons from Ukraine illustrate that sheer numbers do not guarantee success. Plus, the Russo-Ukrainian war exposed significant weakness within the Russian military, transforming it from a seemingly invincible force into a laughing stock for the whole world. Of course, the war in Ukraine has also all but destroyed Russia’s military, with the country reportedly losing roughly 700,000 troops by the end of 2024. Reports indicate that entire battalions have been decimated. One battalion from the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, for example, reportedly lost 645 of its 648 soldiers. The fighting in Ukraine also led to substantial attrition of armored vehicles, with thousands of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery systems, and drones confirmed destroyed. Besides lacking troops and equipment, Russia also has another major challenge to contend with. Logistics. If Russia attempted an invasion of Canada, the complexity of the logistics involved would be nothing short of staggering. First and foremost, Russia currently lacks the robust logistical infrastructure necessary for a straightforward one-on-one conflict. Any Russian military campaign would likely require traversing vast distances across the ocean, a feat that is already daunting given their current struggles in Ukraine, which is just next door. Truthfully, the U.S. might be the only country to genuinely possess these global power projection capabilities. Speaking of the U.S., the country would almost certainly be dragged into this conflict immediately, especially if Russia chose to move through Alaska. This would create a two-front war that Russia would be ill-equipped to handle. Throw the rest of the NATO forces into the mix, and this war would quickly become a quagmire for Moscow, pulling it into a sprawling, multi-national standoff it couldn’t possibly sustain. But does this mean Russia wouldn’t start a war against Canada? Absolutely not. Russia has proven time and time again that the regime’s ambitions often override logic and caution. And when these ambitions include asserting dominance in resource-rich and strategically crucial areas, like the Arctic, which could save Russia’s future, calculated risks seem almost inevitable. So, despite Canada’s reluctance to commit to a conflict, the country might not have a choice but to go to war with Russia. But how do you think this war will play out? And is there any chance of avoiding it? Share your theories in the comments section below. Now go check out Why Is CANADA Russia’s Greatest THREAT or click this other video instead!
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