Why Canada Is Russia’s Biggest Threat

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Jun 29, 2024

The importance of maritime trade for the global economy can’t be understated. After all, roughly 80% of all goods transported worldwide are transported by sea. That’s why global nations continuously invest in maritime infrastructure, striving to enhance their geopolitical influence by strategically controlling critical maritime routes. But there’s a single country poised to become a key player in the future of maritime trade – Canada. Canada’s promising future rests on a few essential factors – its extensive coastline, ice-free ports, and strategic location. However, none of these factors is as crucial as Canada’s potential in the Arctic, the real reason this country is considered the future of maritime trade. Canada’s control over the Arctic could unearth unprecedented opportunities for economic growth, resource extraction, and geopolitical influence on the global stage. If all goes according to plan, Canada could irreversibly reshape the global maritime trade dynamics. Of course, that’s a big “if.” Why?

The importance of maritime trade for the  global economy can’t be understated. After all,  

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roughly 80% of all goods transported worldwide  are transported by sea. That’s why global  

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nations continuously invest in maritime  infrastructure, striving to enhance their  

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geopolitical influence by strategically  controlling critical maritime routes. 

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But there’s a single country  poised to become a key player  

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in the future of maritime trade – Canada. Canada’s promising future rests on a few essential  

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factors – its extensive coastline, ice-free ports,  and strategic location. However, none of these  

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factors is as crucial as Canada’s potential  in the Arctic, the real reason this country  

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is considered the future of maritime trade. Canada’s control over the Arctic could unearth  

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unprecedented opportunities for economic growth,  resource extraction, and geopolitical influence  

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on the global stage. If all goes according to  plan, Canada could irreversibly reshape the  

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global maritime trade dynamics. Of course, that’s a big “if.” 

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Why? Well, not all countries  

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are exactly on board with Canada’s aspirations  in the Arctic, with the U.S. being amongst them. 

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But before diving into the challenges of  Canada’s ambitions, we must first explore  

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what it is about the Arctic that makes it  such a coveted region in maritime trade. 

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Let’s start with the basics. The Arctic is a polar region  

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located around the Earth’s North Pole.  This region encompasses the Arctic Ocean,  

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adjacent seas, and parts of several countries.  These are the countries (and parts) in question: 

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Number 1 is the star of this video – Canada. Canada holds a substantial portion of the Arctic  

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region, consisting of the Northwest Territories,  Nunavut, Yukon, and the northern parts of several  

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provinces. Canada’s Arctic is home to about  150,000 inhabitants, most of which are indigenous. 

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Number 2 is the Kingdom of Denmark, which consists  of three parts – Denmark, the Faroe Islands,  

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and Greenland. As you might know, the last  part, Greenland, occupies a vast portion of  

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the Arctic region. Interestingly, Greenland,  the world’s largest non-continental island,  

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is only 15% inhabitable, leaving room for just  17 towns and 58 villages. The rest of the area  

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is covered in icecaps, as most of the Arctic is,  or at least was. But we’ll come back to this soon. 

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For now, let’s mention Country Number 3 – Finland. Almost one-third of Finland’s land mass lies above  

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the Arctic Circle in the Lapland province.  Still, this province is sparsely populated,  

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accounting for only 3% of the country’s population  of 5,500,000. Other notable Finish territories  

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in the Arctic are Ostrobothnia and Kainuu. Number 4 is Iceland, the country of fire and ice. 

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Though this country isn’t technically a  part of the Arctic continental mainland,  

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its entire territory is in the Arctic region. The  Arctic Circle, however, only passes through two of  

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its territories – Grimsey Island, some 25 miles  off the north coast of Iceland, and Kolbeinsey,  

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over 90 miles off the same coast. Country Number 5 is Norway,  

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whose land mass is nearly 50% in the Arctic  territory. This mass includes the following: 

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The Nordland, Troms, and Finnmark counties The Svalbard archipelago 

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The Jan Mayen island Approximately 490,000  

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people live in these Arctic territories, which is  one-tenth of the total Norwegian population. But  

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this isn’t the only impressive figure in Norway’s  Arctic stats. The country’s Arctic maritime  

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area covers nearly 580,000 square miles, the  equivalent of France, Germany, and Spain combined. 

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Country Number 6 is another  Scandinavian nation – Sweden. 

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Sweden’s two northernmost counties –  Västerbotten and Norrbotten – are considered  

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Arctic territories. Though these territories  comprise approximately one-third of the country’s  

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geographical area, they’re populated with only  half a million inhabitants, a tiny fraction of  

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Sweden’s 10-million-people population. Two more countries fall under the  

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category of Arctic States. First up, and Country Number  

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7 on our list, is the Russian Federation. Over 15,000 miles of the Arctic coastline  

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belong to this mighty nation. This  includes the following territories: 

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The Murmansk Region, the Nenets,  Yamal-Nenets, Komi Republic,  

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and Chukotka Autonomous Okrugs in their entirety Northern parts of the Arkhangelsk Region,  

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the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Republic  of Karelia, and Krasnoyarsk Krai municipalities 

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The islands and archipelagoes in  the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean 

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As many as 2.5 million Russian inhabitants live in  these territories, accounting for almost half of  

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the total population living in the Arctic. And finally, Country Number 8,  

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which could play a huge role in Canada’s  future maritime endeavors, is the U.S. 

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The U.S. officially became an Arctic  nation after purchasing Alaska in 1867. 

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The country’s territories above the  Arctic Circle include the following: 

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The North Slope Borough The Northwest Arctic Borough 

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The Nome Census area The U.S. has varied  

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interests in the Arctic, with maritime trade  recently gaining more prominence among them. 

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But why is the Arctic so  crucial in maritime trade? 

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The answer is simple – this  region opens up new shipping  

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routes and seemingly boundless opportunities. Unfortunately, these come at a colossal cost. 

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You see, the only reason these opportunities  arise is the melting of Arctic ice, a direct  

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consequence of global climate change. The melting of the Arctic ice could  

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wreak havoc on the world. For instance,  it could sink countries like Tuvalu and  

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the Maldives by the end of this century. However, many have perceived one consequence  

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of the melting Arctic ice as positive. Where  there was once ice, there’s now navigable water. 

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The more the ice melts, the more developed  massive transit routes through the Arctic  

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get. This primarily concerns two routes –  the Northwest Passage (NWP) and the Northern  

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Sea Route (NSR). But we’ll discuss these  routes in more detail later in the video. 

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For now, let’s explore the effects of the  increased navigability of the Arctic region. 

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Of course, only one of these effects  matters for the purposes of this  

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video – the increase in Arctic traffic. Between 2013 and 2019, the number of single  

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vessels entering the Arctic area increased  by 25%. Soon, you’ll learn why the year 2013  

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was monumental in the context of Arctic shipping. In the Canadian Arctic, fishing vessels and cargo  

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ships led this incredible boost of traffic,  rising by 106.2% and 122% from 2009 to 2019,  

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respectively. All in all, the total traffic  in the Canadian Arctic was multiplied by 1.92  

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in the same period. More importantly,  

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these figures show no signs of slowing down. In fact, experts predict that nearly 5% of  

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the total shipping trade worldwide could be  deployed through the Arctic region by 2050.  

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This means that whoever controls the maritime  passages through this region stands to gain  

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tremendous economic and geopolitical advantages. As things currently stand, Canada is poised to be  

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the country in charge of this critical region, as  the Northwest Passage primarily runs through its  

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territory. In other words, Canada considers this  passage a part of the Canadian Internal Waters. 

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Of course, not all nations  agree with this classification. 

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But before exploring the challenges surrounding  the claims on the Northwest Passage, let’s see  

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why this route is such a hot “commodity.” The Northwest Passage is a shipping route  

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connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans,  subsequently making shipping from Asia and  

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North America significantly faster and cheaper.  With this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising  

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that finding this passage was one of the primary  quests of early explorers seeking more efficient  

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trade routes between Europe and Asia. These  quests go as far back as Christopher Columbus’s  

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time. Columbus sought a navigable passage  as a trade route to Asia but was blocked by  

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either ice, rough waters, or the Americas. These attempts would go on for centuries,  

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unsuccessful each time, making explorers believe  that the Northwest Passage was nothing but a myth. 

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This all changed in 1906, when Roald  Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer,  

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and six of his crew members successfully  passed through the entire Northwest Passage.  

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It took them three years to travel from Norway  to Herschel Island, Canada, but every second  

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of this voyage was well worth it, as it marked a  historic achievement in the Arctic exploration. 

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However, it’s important to note that Amundsen’s  ship, the Gjøa, was a small vessel that could  

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easily navigate the intricate channels and  shallow waters of the Northwest Passage. 

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Over a century would pass  before a commercial vessel had  

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a successful journey through this passage. This honor belonged to the MS Nordic Orion,  

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a Danish bulk carrier that traversed the almost  ice-free Northwest Passage from Vancouver,  

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Canada, to Pori, Finland, in 2013 instead  of going through the Panama Canal. This move  

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shortened the crew’s journey by four days,  allowed the ship to take 25% more cargo,  

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and saved as much as $80,000 in fuel costs. This historic journey was responsible for  

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one more crucial thing – a proposed route from  East to West. Here’s what this route would look  

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like step by step. Or better yet, stop by stop! The journey would start in the  

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Davis Strait in Nunavut, Canada. From there, the ship should travel north  

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through Baffin Bay into the Canadian Archipelago. After crossing through this archipelago, the ship  

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can continue toward the Beaufort Sea. The Chukchi Sea is next in line,  

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and the ship could use it to exit into the  Bering Strait, separating Russia and Alaska. 

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For now, this route is sometimes only  possible with an icebreaker escort,  

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although some vessels have made the journey  without one. But if the Arctic ice continues  

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melting at the same rate, the region could be  ice-free in the summer months in the near future,  

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eliminating the need for this type of escort  completely. Though scientists are still debating  

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when this could happen, most agree that the  Northwestern Passage could become substantially  

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more accessible between 2040 and 2059. When this happens and the Arctic fully  

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opens for maritime transport, shipping patterns  worldwide will change irreversibly. After all,  

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why would a ship traveling from Japan to  Western Europe travel 13,000 miles through  

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the Suez Canal when it can pass through  the Bering Strait and slash its journey  

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by as many as 6,000 miles? That’s almost half the  distance of the original journey, which, in turn,  

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means half the cost. Talk about a game-changer! Of course, this also means that the Suez  

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and Panama Canals would likely experience a  significant shift in their role, significance,  

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and, naturally, revenue. At the same time,  the Northwest Passage would see an impressive  

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increase in traffic, influence, and revenue.  The same goes for the country controlling it. 

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Now, the Arctic countries are  generally friendly toward each other,  

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with established cooperative frameworks like  the Arctic Council. But with so many economic  

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and geopolitical benefits in the balance,  maintaining this camaraderie may face tests. 

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To make matters worse, the eight countries we  listed at the beginning of this video aren’t  

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the only ones that could seek a stake  in the Arctic’s potential opportunities. 

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You see, besides the eight member states of the  Arctic Council, there are also 12 observer states. 

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However, one among these has the most to gain  from the changing dynamics in the Arctic – China. 

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As an economy primarily based on manufacturing for  the Western world, China sees the Arctic as the  

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crucial arena for economic opportunities. After  all, the Northwest Passage would make the Western  

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world immensely more accessible, shortening  shipping times and costs. This would, in turn,  

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help renew their competitiveness as rivaling  countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh threaten  

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to undercut China’s manufacturing dominance. With this in mind, none of these recent moves  

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should come as a surprise: In 2016, China’s Maritime  

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Safety Administration published a 356-page  guide on navigating the Northwest Passage. 

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In 2018, China’s officials declared  the country a “near-Arctic nation.” 

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In 2023, China’s first domestically built  polar icebreaker, Xue Long 2, entered the  

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Arctic Circle to begin a scientific expedition. Sure, China claims that it would respect any  

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international laws put in place. However, given  the country’s track record with territorial  

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claims and disputes, you would be justified in  approaching such assurances with skepticism. 

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But what about the Arctic Council member states? Well, the Northwestern Passage goes through the  

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waters of three countries – Canada,  the U.S., and the Kingdom of Denmark. 

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However, arguably the most significant  conflict in this regard is between the  

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U.S. and Canada. This probably comes as a  surprise to anyone familiar with the history  

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between these two countries, as they have  always maintained a friendly relationship. 

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The problem lies in the designation  of the Northwestern Passage. 

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As previously mentioned, Canada considers  this passage to be an internal waterway. 

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The U.S., however, advocates for the Northwestern  Passage to be declared an international waterway,  

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allowing for complete freedom of navigation. This is conventionally done when a navigation  

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choke-point might restrict specific countries  from accessing an ocean. By declaring this  

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waterway as an international strait, all nations  are granted unrestricted passage for their ships  

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without interference from the coastal state. Take the Danish Straits as an example. Even  

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though they’re fully surrounded by Denmark, they  have been declared international waterways to  

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grant the Scandinavian and Baltic countries access  to the ocean. The same goes for the Danube River,  

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which offers ocean access to landlocked  countries like Austria, Hungary, and Serbia. 

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According to Canada, the Northwestern Passage  significantly differs from the previous examples.  

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The main difference? The passage’s usefulness. You see, Canada argues that a significant number  

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of ships had to traverse a route successfully  before it could be declared an international  

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waterway. In the case of the Northwestern Passage,  this figure has only reached double digits. 

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In addition, with no country in charge  of the Northwestern Passage, this route  

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can be quite a dangerous endeavor. Why? There  are no search-and-rescue capabilities nearby. 

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This means that if a ship went through this  passage “blindly” and encountered a problem,  

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timely assistance and rescue  operations would be near impossible. 

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However, if Canada were to charge passage fees  similar to those for the Panama or Suez Canal,  

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it would have both the resources  and the responsibility to implement  

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a robust search-and-rescue  system to police the route. 

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But then again, the total control over the  Northwestern Passage would allow Canada to  

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essentially dictate which ships are  permitted to pass. This, in turn,  

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means that the country would have a huge influence  on the economies of major manufacturing nations. 

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Let’s say Canadian officials decide to ban Chinese  ships from traversing the Northwestern Passage  

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while granting access to the Vietnamese  ones. This single move would make Chinese  

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goods uncompetitive for the Western markets,  dealing a major blow to the country’s economy. 

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This scenario makes it even more evident  why this issue is so contentious. 

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However, most experts familiar with  Canada’s operations in maritime shipping  

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fully trust that Canada would adhere  to international laws and regulations,  

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maintaining a fair and unbiased approach to  the management of the Northwestern Passage. 

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After all, we’re talking about a country that was  a founding member of the International Maritime  

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Organization (IMO) in 1948, which sets the global  standards for safe, secure, and environmentally  

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sound shipping practices worldwide. In December  2023, the country was re-elected to the IMO  

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Council, continuing its work in various  fields of international maritime shipping. 

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Interestingly and importantly, one  of these fields is also the Arctic  

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cooperation and protection of polar waters. Canada spearheaded the development of the  

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International Code for Ships Operating in  Polar Waters, or the Polar Code for short,  

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establishing safety and environmental standards  for ships operating in the challenging conditions  

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of polar waters, including the Arctic. In 2024, the country also plans to propose  

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the establishment of an Emissions Control  Area (ECA) in Canadian Arctic waters,  

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aiming to mitigate the environmental impact  and protect the valuable Arctic ecosystems  

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integral to the Inuit way of life. Canada is also a leader in marine  

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biotechnology that promises to yield  groundbreaking discoveries in the future. 

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Through the National Seafarers’ Welfare Board,  this country also strives to enhance the wellbeing  

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of seafarers, addressing the unique challenges  of those working in the Arctic waters. Similarly,  

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through investments in the Marine Training  Program, Canada aims to attract more women,  

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indigenous people, and Northerners to pursue  careers in the marine sector. Currently,  

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women make up only about 1.2% of  the global maritime workforce. 

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All these moves clearly signal one thing –  Canada is serious about the maritime sector.  

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This should put any doubts regarding  its commitment to responsible maritime  

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shipping in the Arctic region to rest. Of course, all these initiatives and  

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moves aren’t simply out of the goodness of  the Canadian officials’ hearts. The truth  

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is that maritime trade is a crucial part  of the Canadian economy and way of life. 

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After all, this country has the longest coastline  in the world and ports of call in the Atlantic,  

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Pacific, and Arctic Oceans, as well  as the Great Lakes. In 2022 alone,  

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marine trade directly generated nearly 30,000  jobs while reaching a value of $345 billion.  

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This figure meant that Canada was responsible  for 23% of the total international trade. 

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In the same year, ports and marine shipping  brought in $194 billion of Canada’s total  

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imports by value while accounting for $151  billion of its exports. During this year,  

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Canada Port Authorities handled almost  340 million tons of total cargo volume. 

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Even with these mind-blowing figures, the  maritime sector holds a lot more untapped  

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potential for Canada and its economy. With over  1.35 million square miles of Arctic territories  

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under its control, it’s clear that the  Arctic region is key to that potential. 

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With the opening of the Northwestern Passage,  Canada could stimulate its historically  

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underdeveloped regions in the far north. Also, if  a large portion of the world’s maritime traffic  

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headed through this passage, these regions  would quickly become vital shipping, trade,  

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and logistics hubs, boosting their population. With all of this in mind, we have one more  

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question to answer – how can  Canada prepare for the opening  

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of the Northwestern Passage to shipping? Currently, there are no agreements policing  

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who can and can’t pass through the Northwest  Passage. The only existing agreements are  

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between the U.S. and Canada. For instance, the  1988 Arctic Cooperation Agreement dictates that  

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the U.S. must request Canada’s consent to send  an icebreaker through the Northwest Passage. 

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However, with the increased monetary gain  on the table, it seems that the U.S. has  

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started disregarding this agreement. This  only reinforces the need for a new one,  

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which wouldn’t necessarily be limited to the U.S. This agreement would reflect Canada’s policy that  

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the Northwest Passage belongs to  its internal waters, and as such,  

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it’s fully under the country’s control. It’s  also worth mentioning that Canadian officials  

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never even implied that this passage would be  off-limits for specific countries. All they  

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said was that the journey through this  passage would be under Canada’s terms. 

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Now, speaking of these terms, Canada has  two options – charging passage fees and  

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allowing free use of the Northwest Passage. Let’s break down each of these options. 

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Charging fees to users of the Northwest Passage  would bring two major benefits to Canada. One,  

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it would reduce the number of ships traversing  the passage, thus protecting the Arctic ecosystem  

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and its people. And two, the country could  raise money for numerous maritime endeavors,  

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from investments in search-and-rescue capabilities  to environmental conservation initiatives. Canada  

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could also use this money to help indigenous  people continue living their lifestyle. 

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This option would likely make the passage  through the Arctic financially unsustainable  

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for many groups and companies. This means  that Canada probably wouldn’t impose any  

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other specific regulations on the users  of the Northwest Passage. In other words,  

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charging them is enough. This move could possibly  appease nations disagreeing with Canada’s  

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ownership claims over the Northwestern Passage, as  it would restrict their travels only monetarily. 

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For option number two, Canada would allow  free use of the Northwest Passage. Of course,  

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by “free,” we mean free of charge, as this option  would likely come with other limitations regarding  

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safety, the environment, and navigation. Still, a free passage would likely attract  

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significantly more ships from all over the world,  increasing Canada’s standing with other nations.  

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After all, Canada would be the country that  allowed them substantially cheaper trade. 

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Among these nations, Canada would probably  benefit from Asian partnerships the most.  

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Asian companies viewed the Northwest Passage  as the ideal opportunity to reduce costs and  

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expand their business. If they were allowed to  use it and do so for free, they would likely be  

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more open to bilateral agreements that would  immensely benefit Canada in the long run. 

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Of course, opening the Northwest Passage to free  trade comes with numerous environmental threats.  

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Oil spills, pollution, and noise interference are  just some of them. These threats could severely  

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impact the traditional way of life for the  Inuit people. That’s not to mention how damaging  

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they would be for the environment, setting  Canada’s green initiatives back considerably. 

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Based on these factors, you could  probably conclude that the first  

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option would be significantly more beneficial  for Canada and its people in the long run. 

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Now, there’s just the small issue of getting  other nations, chiefly the U.S., to agree  

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to Canada’s stance on the Northwest Passage. Many experts believe that the U.S. should – and  

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will – eventually accept Canada’s claim on  the Northwest Passage. Why? Because this  

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is the only way to prevent China and Russia  from laying claims to the region. These two  

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countries have already been making somewhat  aggressive moves, and the last thing the U.S.  

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wants is to see the Arctic fall into the hands of  nations with potentially conflicting interests. 

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If the Northwestern Passage was  officially considered part of Canada,  

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the country could protect it, possibly  even with the help of the U.S. Navy. 

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But what do you think? Leave your  thoughts in the comments below. 

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Now watch “Real Reason US Bought  Alaska from Russia,” or this other  

24:16

video you might like. Thanks for watching.