With transcript:
In this video, we dive deep into a surprising geopolitical rivalry that could reshape the Arctic: Canada vs. Russia. While the U.S. is often seen as Russia's primary adversary, Canada is emerging as a formidable challenger. This video explores why Canada’s control over the Arctic, its untapped resources, and the Northwest Passage could pose a significant threat to Russia’s ambitions. Discover how Canada’s strategic position in the Arctic could alter global power dynamics, challenging Vladimir Putin’s plans..
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TRANSCRIPT
seen as the primary challenger to Vladimir
Putin’s power, there’s another country that
should have him quaking in his boots – and it’s
not who you might expect. Sure, we often focus on
the geopolitical giants like the U.S., Russia,
and China. But zoom in on Russia, and you'll
find a surprising contender emerging from the
shadows. It’s not America, but America’s northern
neighbor – Canada – that presents a formidable
challenge to Moscow. Yes, you heard that right.
Canada has far more influence on Russia’s future
than many, including Putin, may realize. In this
video, we’ll dive into the reasons why Canada
is such a major thorn in Moscow’s side and why
it represents a significant threat. And it all
comes down to one critical battleground – the
Arctic Ocean. In April 2021, Russia filed a
submission to the United Nations, or U.N.,
with a single goal in mind – claim more of
the Arctic Ocean and its seabed. Within the
claim lay plans to extend Russia’s territorial
claims over Arctic waters right to the borders of
Canada’s exclusive economic zones, or EEZs. Under
maritime law, an EEZ is an area of the ocean over
which a nation can stake a territorial claim up
to 200 nautical miles offshore from one of its
coasts. Within that EEZ, the nation can both
exploit the natural resources it finds to its
own benefit – by virtue of having a territorial
claim over them – and control the shipping that
passes through the territory. Speaking to CBC,
University of Durham professor Philip Steinberg
says that Russia’s submission to the U.N. would
see it expand its own territorial waters by over
270,000 square miles while granting it control of
waters that are essentially right on Canada’s back
door. Naturally, Canada opposed the submission,
not least because it had made a submission of
its own that overlapped with the territory that
Russia was attempting to claim. University of
Calgary political science professor Robert Huebert
noted that Russia’s claim overlapped with Canada’s
in the North Pole region, but went far beyond
that. “Here’s a situation where they’re – meaning
Russia – claiming the entire Canadian and Danish
continental shelf as part of their continental
shelf.” Other commentators at the time took a
more relaxed approach. Those included Whitney
Lackenbaeur, a professor at Trent University,
who pointed out that Russia had gone through the
appropriate legal challenges to make its claim.
She also believes that Russia didn’t seriously
believe that it would gain the territory
for which it made its submission. Instead,
it was looking to bring Canada, Denmark, and the
other countries that lay claims to the Arctic’s
continental shelf to the table. “Setting out to
negotiate where the outermost limits would be
was something that was always in the cards,” she
said. In other words, Russia was merely trying
to accelerate a discussion that should already
have been happening. Nevertheless, the claim
was seen as a challenge to Canada’s sovereign
rights in the Arctic. Toward the end of 2023,
the issue still hadn’t been resolved, with Russia
again emphasizing that it needed to exert its
influence within the Arctic. The country’s Navy
Chief – Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov – made this clear
when he said, “There is need for a full-scale
expansion into the continental shelf beyond the
borders of the 200-mile exclusive economic zone.”
In other words, Russia needs to have more control
over the Arctic. That control would extend to 70%
of the ocean, according to Maritime Executive,
though negotiations would continue to stall given
that Russia was deep into its “special military
operation” in Ukraine by the time Yevmenov made
his statement. The questions now are simple:
Why does any of this matter and what does it have
to do with Canada having an impact on Russia?
We’ll start with why it matters. Part of the issue
comes down to oil and gas ownership. According
to Just Energy, the Arctic is believed to be home
to at least 90 billion barrels of oil, along with
1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Add
44 billion barrels of natural gas liquid into
the mix and you have extremely rich territory.
The oil alone offers billions of dollars in
potential revenue. At the time of creating this
video, a barrel of crude oil sold for $82.71,
meaning 90 billion barrels would equate to revenue
of more than $7.4 trillion. Even more importantly,
these oil and gas deposits are only what has been
discovered thus far. As Just Energy notes, much of
the Arctic region remains unexplored – both due to
territorial disputes and the many challenges that
come with exploring such an inhospitable region –
meaning there may be more oil and gas available.
Oil and gas are important for Russia. Its energy
sector accounts for 20% of its gross domestic
product, or GDP, on average per year, with that
number fluctuating based on prices. If Russia
can control more oil and gas, it can also control
supply and thus strengthen its geopolitical and
economic influence. Russia’s claims over the
Arctic are intended to create that influence,
with Canada being one of the key countries
standing in its way. It also shouldn’t escape
mention that Canada is making its own claims over
the Arctic seabed. The oil and gas that Russia
seeks could end up in Canadian hands if Canada
is successful, representing a threat to Russia’s
slice of the energy markets. So, Russia has a
twofold goal – to get more oil and gas while
keeping those resources out of the hands of other
countries that have stakes in the Arctic (such as
Canada and the United States) in the process.
There are other economic factors at play for
Russia. According to the Carnegie Endowment, about
a third of all of the fish harvested in Russia
comes from the Arctic, turning the waters into
one of the country’s key food sources. Russia will
naturally benefit from the warming of the Arctic
waters – more on that later – by 2030, which it
believes will push fish stocks northward and into
its existing EEZs. Still, having control over more
of the Arctic would mean more freedom for its
fishing industry. The Arctic could transform
into Russia’s primary source of food, with the
fish it catches also being exportable to offer a
boost to its economy. It's also worth noting that
Russia already has extensive control over Arctic
waters. The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental
forum that promotes cooperation between the eight
nations that have coastlines letting out into
the Arctic Ocean. Both Russia and Canada are key
members of that council. According to the Arctic
Council, Russia accounts for 53% of the Arctic
Ocean’s coastline, with the country having 2.5
million people living in what it considers Arctic
territory. Russia also believes that its history
in the Arctic should entitle it to a great share
of the ocean’s waters. As the Carnegie Endowment
points out, Russia has maintained a presence in
the ocean for several centuries. In fact, it was
the discovery of oil and gas in Siberia – which
sits both below and above the Arctic Circle – that
played a huge role in Russia’s economic expansion
in the post-Soviet era. Those discoveries
underwrote the country’s domestic economic
stability. Therefore, gaining access to the
billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic
feet of gas confirmed to be on the Arctic Ocean’s
shelf would ensure greater economic stability for
Russia, which it believes is backed by historical
claims. What does all of this mean so far? Russia
and Canada find themselves in a battle for
supremacy over the Arctic waters that lie
outside of their EEZs. Both have submitted claims
to the U.N. for sovereignty over waters outside
of these EEZs, though Russia’s 2021 claim is the
most egregious given that it would essentially
give Moscow control over the entire Arctic beyond
other countries’ EEZs. Russia’s actions in Ukraine
have also stalled negotiations related to
these territorial disputes. Control over
those waters would be invaluable to both Russia
and Canada economically because of the oil and
gas deposits in the Arctic, both discovered and
undiscovered. Plus, that control would strengthen
both countries’ fishing industries, with Russia
in particular having the potential to turn the
Arctic Ocean into its primary food source. Each
of these issues highlights why Canada could become
such a threat to Russia. If it’s able to expand
its territorial claims over the Arctic – at the
expense of Moscow – it gets access to oil and
fishing that Russia desires. This wouldn’t
be enough to collapse Russia’s economy. It
would still be an oil and gas-rich nation,
with much of these resources coming from the
EEZs it already has in place in the Arctic. But
Russia would lose a chance at improving both its
economic and food stability, the latter being an
important issue given that 400,000 Russians were
identified as “severely food insecure” on average
between 2019 and 2021. However, these issues,
though important, don’t represent the largest
threat that Canada poses to Russia in the Arctic.
That threat can be summed up in three words:
The Northwest Passage. To the world’s early
explorers, the Northwest Passage was more a myth
than a realistic possibility. However, that didn’t
stop centuries of expeditions designed to find a
safe route through Arctic waters due, in large
part, to the trading benefits such a route would
provide. Discovering the Arctic – a U.K.-based
research group – offers a general timeline of the
search for a true Northwest Passage. It says that
the Inuit are largely considered to be the first
group of people that explored the Arctic, with
those explorations leading to them discovering
a Northwest Passage they could use for trading.
However, the passage was constricted during this
period, with the Inuit unable to see beyond local
trading routes because they had yet to discover
the wider world outside of their territory. The
real search began in the 16th century. By this
point, European and Asian countries were trading
regularly and had well-established seaborne routes
to one another. The problem was that these routes
required crews to spend months at sea, with a ship
sailing from Europe to Asia having to navigate
around southern Africa to reach its destination. A
shorter route was desired, which led to explorers
turning their attention to the northern waterways.
Martin Frobisher was one of the first to attempt
to establish a Northwest Passage. In 1576, he took
a small fleet into the northern waters intent on
finding a safe route through them. He failed – two
years at sea led him to an inlet that now bears
his name, but he could go no further. Others
followed in his wake, though all similar attempts
failed. That is until 1845 when Queen Victoria of
England gave the order for Sir John Franklin
to finally establish a safe Northwest Passage.
Franklin was well-equipped – he had a crew of 134
sailors and three years of supplies to supplement
the voyage. The family members of the sailors were
so confident in his upcoming success that they
even sent letters to China. Those letters would
never reach the sailors. By 1848, it was clear
that Franklin’s men hadn’t made it through the
Northwest Passage. Rescue ships were sent out
multiple times over the decade that followed, with
more than 2,000 men and 40 ships searching for
Franklin’s ships. Finally, 1859 brought with it
the discovery of corpses on King William Island,
as well as documentation that indicated that
Franklin’s ships had become frozen in the ice,
his men dying as they desperately searched for
land on which to alight. Still, Franklin had
discovered several links in the Northwest Passage,
with the later rescue attempts discovering even
more. Mapping of the region was within the world’s
grasp, though it would be almost 50 years until
another explorer finally succeeded. That man was
Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian who sailed the entire
Northern Passage in a simple 21-foot fishing boat
named The Gjoa. Along the way, he encountered
several Inuit tribes, whose knowledge of the
Arctic waters proved invaluable in helping him
to map out the various links through the passage.
He also encountered ice, being forced to wait for
months on end at various points before his ship
could pass through on its voyage to the South
Pole. Amundsen had essentially created a proof of
concept. Sailing through the Northwest Passage was
possible, though it came at great cost. Having
to wait for the ice to melt meant that the
route still wasn’t usable for trade, as the months
wasted on waiting made the more traditional routes
more viable. The Northwest Passage remained
a legend. But that is looking as if it might
change. As Discovering the Arctic notes, finding
a secure route through the Northwest Passage today
would make maritime voyages almost 4,350 miles
shorter than they currently are. Right now,
ships sailing from the Americas or Europe into
Asia typically pass through the Panama Canal,
with the establishment of a reliable route
saving around two weeks on a typical voyage.
The organization uses a voyage between London and
Tokyo as an example. Today, completing that voyage
using the Panama Canal requires a ship to sail
almost 14,300 miles. Even using the Suez Canal
only slashes around 1,250 miles from the journey.
If a Northwest Passage existed, shipping companies
could save time and money, with the passage likely
transforming into one of the most important in
global maritime trade. However, the same problem
that stopped so many early explorers in their
tracks still exists: Ice. Only the most heavily
reinforced icebreakers are currently able to make
their way reliably through the Northwest Passage
due to it being frozen over for most of the year.
So, we come back to a question: What does any of
this have to do with Russia and Canada? Earth.org
provides the answer. In a September 2021 article
created around the same time that Russia made its
submission to the U.N., it revealed that the
frozen waters of the Northwest Passage aren’t
likely to stay frozen for much longer. It says
that global warming has caused the Arctic to warm
at a rate that’s twice that of any other region in
the world, with that warming leading to extensive
ice loss. The volume of sea ice in the Arctic
has already fallen by 75% since the 1980s, the
resource claims, with 2050 potentially bringing
with it the first ice-free summers the Northwest
Passage has ever experienced if the current
rate of global warming goes on unabated. Those
transformations in the Arctic are huge for Russia,
Canada, and any other nation that lays claim to
the Arctic waters. With the disappearance of ice
comes the possibility of establishing a Northwest
Passage that can be navigated without icebreaking
vessels. The melting also promises greater access
to the natural resources buried within the
Arctic’s continental shelf. Including oil,
gas, and metals that could include iron, copper,
nickel, zinc, and phosphates. New shipping routes
could be created and, with them, greater control
over maritime trade for any nation that owns these
routes. There will also be military possibilities
– a country that controls the Northwest Passage
could not only fill the waters with its own
ships but bar those traveling from conflicting
countries. Russia has already shown a defined
interest in establishing northern maritime trading
routes. In September 2023, Reuters reported on
Russia’s work with India and China in its efforts
to create more icebreaking vessels that would
allow it to boost trade via the Northern Sea
route. Though not the same – and not as expansive
– as the Northwest Passage, the North Sea route
runs into many of the same problems in terms
of ice blocking the shipping route. The route,
which runs from the Russian port of Murmansk
eastward toward the Bering Strait in Alaska,
has long been seen as an alternative to using
the Suez Canal by Russia. It’s also seeing an
increasing amount of trade pass through – Russia
used this North Sea route to transport 34 million
tons of cargo in 2022. It hopes to more than
double that to 80 million tons by the end of 2024,
with the projected number rising again to
200 million tons by 2031. Russia believes
it needs 50 more icebreaker vessels to hit
the 200-million-ton target. The melting of
the Arctic ice may make that moot. The point here
is that Russia views the northern Arctic waters
as a vital trading route of which it wants to
take advantage. The same applies to Canada,
and it has recognized the potential these
waters hold for over a decade. In October 2013,
Gerard Kenney published an article in The Canadian
Encyclopedia in which he noted that ice is the
only thing that prevents reliable East-West
shipping through the Northwest Passage and that
this ice will become less of a problem as Arctic
glaciers and snowfields disappear. At that point,
he says, the commercial value of newly opened
shipping lanes through the Arctic will be huge,
with the Prince of Wales Strait and the M’Clure
Strait playing key roles in those new routes. Both
are also considered Canadian territory. The Prince
of Wales Strait lies within Canada’s Northwest
Territories, separating Victoria Island from Banks
Island. It’s a possible route for the mythical
Northwest Passage because the Parry Channel
– which is a 600-mile stretch of water – runs
West from Baffin Bay to the strait. Historically,
the Prince of Wales Strait has been considered
unnavigable due to the amount of ice within it,
though that may soon no longer be a problem,
as established previously. Similarly, the M’Clure
Strait is Canadian territory that forms the
northwestern end of the previously mentioned Parry
Channel. It extends East into Baffin Bay and has
similarly been named as a potential route within
the Northwest Passage. Again, ice is a problem.
So much so that 1969 saw the SS Manhattan – a U.S.
tanker – get stuck in the strait’s ice, forcing a
rescue by a Canadian icebreaker before it could
complete its passage. In 2013, Kenney believed
that Canada would soon face claims against its
sovereignty in relation to these two straits,
with those claims coming as a direct result of
other countries hoping to take advantage of an
emerging Northwest Passage. All of which brings
us back to Russia and its 2021 submission. Russia
doesn’t appear to have attempted to make a claim
on any of these straits and Canada reserves the
right to regulate any activity that occurs within
them. However, as the Northwest Passage continues
to move from myth to defined possibility, that
may change. Russia may want unfettered access
through those straits to allow it to trade more
extensively without having to rely on the Suez
Canal. Thus, the claims being made over the last
couple of years may simply be the tip of the
iceberg – pun slightly intended – when it comes
to sovereignty over the waters that will make up
the Northwest Passage. The problem for Russia
is that Canada holds all of the cards when it
comes to these straits and the Arctic islands that
allow it to stake its claims. However, Moscow may
find itself with an unexpected ally as it tries to
expand its influence in the Arctic in the future:
The United States. In an April 2020 article, Brown
Political Review examined the possibility of a
Northwest Passage opening up and the effect such
an event could have on Canadian-U.S. relations.
It notes that the two countries are typically
allies and trading partners – both are members
of NATO as well – though the idea of a Northwest
Passage has long been a sticking point between
them. Specifically, the U.S. disputes Canada’s
claims to the coastal waters that lie far
above the country’s northern coast, with the
previously mentioned Arctic islands – and the
straits that run through them – being part of this
dispute. Canada claims these waters as their own
based on both history and several cases that have
been settled within the International Court of
Justice. On the historical side, it argues that
the long history of Inuit use of these waters
makes them part of Canada’s territory, with
the court cases backing that claim. America,
on the other hand, offers its interpretation
of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea,
or UNCLOS, as a counterpoint to Canada’s argument.
It accepts UNCLOS as international law – despite
it never having been ratified by the U.S.
Congress as such – and claims that UNCLOS
says the contested waters should be considered
an international strait. In other words, nobody
should have control. For decades, this dispute
has simmered under the surface with no real need
to resolve it. After all, the waters in question
are filled with ice for the majority of the year,
meaning they serve no real purpose to maritime
transit. Small flashpoints have occurred,
including the previously mentioned SS Manhattan
issue, but neither has actively pursued a
resolution. That’s going to change. With the
melting of the Arctic ice comes the emergence
of the Northwest Passage as a potential
shipping route. It’s already being used as
such – 20 million tons of cargo passed through the
passage in 2018 – but a lack of ice opens the door
for billions of tons to be transported. The U.S.
argues that making the islands over which Canada
claims sovereignty international waters would
create an international strait. Canada could
still regulate some aspects of the traffic that
flows through the waterways, but it’ll have no
right to prohibit international shipping. That
would work out well for Russia. There’s also a
military aspect to America’s claims. Over the last
few years, Russia has been ramping up its military
presence in the Arctic Circle. In November 2022,
Reuters reported that Russia has reopened at least
10 Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic since
2005, with those bases starting to play host to
modernized Russian ships. Even more worryingly,
it says Russia is developing hypersonic missiles
that may be installed at these bases, giving it
the capacity to strike North America if needed.
Right now, Russian bases within the Arctic
Circle outnumber NATO bases by about a third,
with Russian control over more Arctic waters
potentially opening up the possibility for more
bases to be created. Other Russian moves include
the unveiling of a pair of nuclear submarines,
as reported by CBS in December 2023, suggesting
that Russia is pegging the entire Arctic region
as being key to its military expansion. According
to the report, NATO’s footprint in the Arctic is
now behind Russia’s by about 10 years, which is
an issue that affects both Canada and the United
States. So, we get a complex situation emerging.
America’s claims that Canadian sovereign waters
should become international waters are good
for both the U.S. and Russia on the trading
front. However, they may create the possibility
that Russia could use this designation to start
running exercises while subtly using its
navy to threaten North America. In essence,
Canada is fighting a battle on two fronts – one
against Russian territorialism and another focused
on finding a suitable compromise with the United
States. Nevertheless, Canada’s current situation
makes it a key power broker in the emerging Arctic
region. It represents such a powerful threat to
Russia for several reasons. On the trading front,
Canada continuing to exert its sovereignty – while
also using its influence in the Arctic Council to
prevent Russia from expanding its territory – will
be key to limiting Russia’s ability to trade with
the rest of the world. Given the situation in
Ukraine, you could even consider this control as
being vital to any future sanctions levied against
Russia once the Northwest Passage opens up. Russia
has also shown itself to be keen to move into
Arctic waters, both through its increasing use
of the North Sea route and its military buildup
in the region. Beyond trade, Canada also has
the ability to prevent Russia from controlling
vast oil and gas reserves, as well as preventing
it from overfishing in the Arctic region. Then,
there’s the military side of things – Russia has
clear plans to expand its presence in the Arctic.
Canada giving up its sovereign claims could
be key to that expansion, at least in terms
of allowing Russia to more directly threaten the
United States. But as long as Canada holds on, it
becomes a threat to Russia because it’s actively
thwarting Putin’s ambitions. It’ll control any
future trade within the Northwest Passage, as well
as likely be more favorable to American Navy ships
sailing through the straits that it currently
owns. It’s for these reasons that the Arctic – and
the Northwest Passage in particular – has the
potential to become a geopolitical flashpoint
in the coming years, especially once the Arctic
ice melts. But what do you think? What role will
Canada play in the future of northern trade routes
and does it really have enough power to threaten
Russia? How far do you think Russia will go in
an effort to exert its influence over the Arctic
over the next few decades? Share your thoughts
in the comments and thank you for watching
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